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Fivethirtyeight now hedging - EC gives Trump a bigger chance of victory

Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:25 pm
Posted by goofball
Member since Mar 2015
16855 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:25 pm
LINK
quote:


Historically, which party enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College ebbs and flows; sometimes the Democrats benefit from it; at other times, the Republicans. But in 2020, the Electoral College is clearly boosting Trump’s odds of winning reelection.

That’s because the states that are most likely to decide the contest are somewhat more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole


Backing down from the certain Biden victory....
Posted by Strannix
District 11
Member since Dec 2012
48842 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:26 pm to
After tonight and this massacre that's their only out

Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25311 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:31 pm to
That’s Nate Silver’s outfit? He picks today to start hedging?!?
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
23652 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:39 pm to
It’s the truth. Trump has a clear path through the electoral college. He won’t win the popular vote but that doesn’t mean he won’t be elected.
Posted by mwade91383
Washington DC
Member since Mar 2010
5637 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:41 pm to
When did they say certain victory?? Link??
Posted by heismanjoe
Da Parish
Member since Feb 2020
140 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:42 pm to
Nate Silver is such a bitch
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6495 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:44 pm to
quote:

It’s the truth. Trump has a clear path through the electoral college. He won’t win the popular vote but that doesn’t mean he won’t be elected.



The past patriots were so impressive with their foresight. Brilliant way to ensure mob mentality doesn’t prevail. What a great way to preserve balance among power of states.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19805 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:47 pm to
Sad Nate Bronze is always hedging - "Our model gives Trump a 66% chance of losing but that is actually a lot better chance of winning than people realize"
Posted by NawlinsTiger9
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
34865 posts
Posted on 9/29/20 at 9:47 pm to
they've been saying this for months
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