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Posted on 5/29/20 at 1:12 am to Turbeauxdog
quote:Red is just covid deaths that were actually tested/confirmed. Those alone meet the expected rate. However, total deaths are much higher than that.
It looks to me like red plus gray approximately equals blue.
What’s the issue here.
Rolling 4 year would exclude covid, red is covid, blue is total.
What am I missing?
Posted on 5/29/20 at 4:02 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:Obviously some countries are vastly underreporting cases. China, India, Mexico, etc.
Extent of Covid-19 Deaths Failed to Be Captured by Most Countries
Most people here don't want to hear this, but it's highly likely that WuFlu deaths are being under-counted in almost every country:
However in the case of Western Europe, claims that there is significant underreporting are dubious, and in the US, if there is error at all, it is more likely we are over-reporting deaths d/t CV19.
Regardless, the Wall Street Journal's source for this whole thesis is apparently an engineer ... not a team of healthcare workers, not coroners from the hardest hit locales, not multiple epidemiologists, not the CV19 Taskforce, but rather an engineer.
Correspondently the statement "determining what caused a death can prove difficult" is ill-informed and misleading at best. Perhaps if an engineer is the diagnostician, such determination is difficult. For healthcare workers though, fever and respiratory failure are a damn fine hint as to CV19 case fatality.
The fact Lauren Gardner designed a CV19 web tally board, makes her no more qualified to determine likely cause of death or CFR or capacity of diagnosticians than a PhD who who designs ventilators. Did that not occur to the WSJ author, or his editor?
quote:
Lauren Gardner, a Johns Hopkins University associate engineering professor who leads the team that built the school's widely cited Covid-19 tracker, believes countries including the U.S. and China have broadly undercounted cases and deaths. She cited Belgium as among the rare places where the number of Covid-19-related deaths has closely tracked this year's surge in excess mortality.
During a pandemic, determining what caused a death can prove difficult—especially so with Covid-19, since many people who have died also suffered from other serious conditions.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 6:13 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Most people here don't want to hear this, but it's highly likely that WuFlu deaths are being under-counted in almost every country:
Bullzhit....
Posted on 5/29/20 at 6:14 am to Big Scrub TX
If there's a second wave, it will be because of rioting minority Communities who aren't practicing Social Distancing whilst stealing and committing arson.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 6:50 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Most people here don't want to hear this, but it's highly likely that WuFlu deaths are being under-counted in almost every country:
Because it just isn’t that significant. People aren’t dying In the streets in any part of the world, even the least developed.
Grasping to try and keep a higher score to support a narrative or just your original thoughts is pathetic
This was never going to be that deadly of an event. The experts were straight up wrong. Now we got a $3T+ Spending bill on the books. The precedent has been set.
Posted on 5/29/20 at 7:18 am to Big Scrub TX
The problem with these excess death studies is that they assume all excess death to be covid when we know there are other excess deaths because people are afraid to go to ERs, especially heart attacks and strokes.
There is also an issue with deaths of people with terminal illnesses. In normal times, if some enters hospice for cancer, there death certificate says cancer even if they have flu or anything else when they die. Now if they have covid when they die, it counts as a covid death in the US.
In some other countries, they only count it as covid if they were otherwise healthy.
There is also an issue with deaths of people with terminal illnesses. In normal times, if some enters hospice for cancer, there death certificate says cancer even if they have flu or anything else when they die. Now if they have covid when they die, it counts as a covid death in the US.
In some other countries, they only count it as covid if they were otherwise healthy.
This post was edited on 5/29/20 at 7:26 am
Posted on 5/29/20 at 2:13 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Red is just covid deaths that were actually tested/confirmed. Those alone meet the expected rate. However, total deaths are much higher than that.
The expected rate is a 4 year trailing average, therefore it excludes covid.
Expected plus covid equals actual.
Again, what’s the problem ?
Posted on 5/29/20 at 3:47 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:There is none.
The expected rate is a 4 year trailing average, therefore it excludes covid.
Expected plus covid equals actual.
Again, what’s the problem ?
Here are the graphs super imposed and zeroed at the respective CV19 uptick point.
Notice though blue and red graphs are similar, when zeroed at the inflection, blue leads red on the upslope, and trails on the downslope. I'd theorize the blue upslope adds normal death baseline to the CV19 numbers. While the downslope indicates a change (decline) in the normal death baseline d/t decreased human activity. A trailing baseline average would not indicate the current fall in baseline.
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