Ely Ratner - If China Invades North Korea, Will Trump Be Prepared?

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The odds of a catastrophic war on the Korean Peninsula are increasing by the day. The Trump administration is determined to deny North Korea the ability to threaten the United States with nuclear weapons. On the cusp of reaching exactly that milestone, supreme leader Kim Jong Un is in no mood to bend to U.S. pressure and halt—much less roll back—his weapons program. Neither side is proposing concessions to ease tensions, and Washington has announced that time is running out for nonmilitary options to end the standoff.

The consequences of a conflict would be devastating. By conservative estimates, upwards of 300,000 people would die in the first days of the war. Millions of refugees, a widespread humanitarian crisis and at least a trillion dollars in reconstruction costs would follow. If that’s not challenging enough, it is unlikely that U.S. and South Korean troops would be the only foreign forces inside North Korea.

China isn’t going to start a conflict with North Korea, but if instability or war breaks out, it won’t sit on the sidelines either. With much at stake, growing ambitions and an increasingly capable military, chances are good that China would send tens of thousands of police and soldiers into North Korea—an eventuality for which the United States today is simply not prepared. Both to avoid an inadvertent military clash with China and to protect America’s long-term interests in Asia, the Trump administration should urgently develop a post-conflict plan that reflects its preferred end state for the Korean Peninsula.

Despite a 1961 defense treaty, China is not going to intervene in North Korea in an act of selflessness. Relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have deteriorated rapidly in recent years: Kim has yet to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping; the regime has purged high-ranking officials with close ties to Beijing; and North Korea has rebuffed recent Chinese attempts to resuscitate bilateral ties.

China’s intervention would have at least three goals. First: Manage refugee flows. In fact, there are credible reports that the Chinese government is already constructing refugee camps in Jilin province, just across the border. Second, the People’s Liberation Army would attempt to secure major nuclear and missile facilities. In this endeavor, the United States and China have shared interests in preventing North Korea’s deadly weapons from going missing or falling into the wrong hands.

Third, and most troubling for the United States, China would likely establish a large-scale military presence to maximize its influence in subsequent discussions about the political and military future of the Korean Peninsula. As Russia has demonstrated in Syria, boots on the ground offer considerable sway over political futures.

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