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Started By
Message
re: Do the math. It is almost impossible for an American to die of COVID-19.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 12:55 am to honeybadger07
Posted on 4/18/20 at 12:55 am to honeybadger07
quote:No, 10X more people are dying from covid than diabetes every day right now.
So still less deaths than diabetes?
quote:Ah, so this is yet another troll alter.
Ohhhh wait....forgot that gets tagged under “probably covid19 death” now so never mind it’s still more
1
Posted on 4/18/20 at 1:00 am to jimdog
quote:
Bad news Korkstand and others pulling for the virus.
There is not a single motherfricker here "pulling for the virus". The virus is the enemy, and you have to know and understand the enemy to defeat it. Pretending there is no problem is a good way to get blindsided. Open your eyes.
quote:Got a link?
It has been determined by Gov. labs to be a SARS flu version and as such is slowed down in N. America by late spring and summer sunlight, longer days, heat and humidity. and also he fact that people are outside more. This phenom is somewhat unique to America, btw, but SARS is fixing to hit a downward spiral. Oh the flu survives and yes spreads in summer time even with a vaccine and so will this virus but not to the extent that it has.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 1:31 am to Korkstand
You need to open your eyes and learn. If understanding the enemy is your goal. In fact I think "understanding" is very low on your things to do list. And btw, I suspect the days of pretending there was not any problem passed way back when as we were restricted from our daily travels, having to wear a mask to go to the grocery, having needed medical procedures delayed, losing our jobs to the tune of upwards of 30 million. And deaths in this country close in on the flu death totals in 2018.
Not to mention democrats in congress running from their duties to keep from confronting the need to keep millions more from losing their jobs. I know saving our economy and avoiding a prolonged recession/depression which could make what we have seen look like child's play is likely not a very interesting idea for you. And I understand you are behind the news cycle but try to keep up. Things are being revealed as we post. And it's not my responsibility to keep you informed.
Not to mention democrats in congress running from their duties to keep from confronting the need to keep millions more from losing their jobs. I know saving our economy and avoiding a prolonged recession/depression which could make what we have seen look like child's play is likely not a very interesting idea for you. And I understand you are behind the news cycle but try to keep up. Things are being revealed as we post. And it's not my responsibility to keep you informed.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 2:27 am to bfniii
quote:Just following you.
it's not my fault that you're swerving all over the road so bad that we can't figure out where you're trying to go
quote:Again I say, I don't think we should have shut the world down at all. And I hate fearmongering idiots. The only thing I'm trying to tell you is that going too far in the other direction, past reality and into denial territory, is just as bad. I am a realist.
to say things like "it would have been worse if not for social mitigation" is to take the reporting at face value, which is stupid. somebody needs to be a grown up and contextualize the numbers knowing that we're talking mainly about senior citizens with comorbidities sequestered in often poorly run nursing homes so that we don't continue to sensationalize a second wave like pelosi is doing. you know, one of the chief policy makers in the nation. it's nothing more than spurious fear mongering
quote:None of that has dick to do with the quote it was supposed to be a response to.
yeah, you're right. and there's not protests developing across the nation. people are actually staying home. businesses are not opening back up. cdc leaders are publicly warning against leaving isolation.
if it weren't debatable, none of that would be happening. it most certainly is debatable and that's why you see all of that happening. people aren't really buying the numbers, including the morbidity reporting.
this concept is really, REALLY escaping you. you have made it WAY more complex than it actually is
quote:Looks like you don't quite grasp the idea here. We can discuss counterfactuals in regards to the shutdown if you'd like, but that should be a different thread. This one is about the likelihood of death from covid (vs. comorbidities, if you like), and that is a question of probability. Any way you try to argue it, it will come down to how likely someone was to die of something else.
do you know counterfactuals? no. stats and probability have nothing to do with it. we're talking biology. not poker.
quote:
I QUOTED THE CDC.
quote:
it is not merely quoting the cdc as you have misunderstood yet again.
Can't make this shite up.
quote:I have never once claimed that anyone can know that with certainty. In fact, I have mentioned probabilities several times in this thread. You don't seem to like when I do that, though. The point is there is nothing outlandish about the methodology. If you want to believe that the numbers are inflated (which it's obvious that you strongly do), then you have to believe that numerous other death figures are similarly inflated (and some surely deflated). The point is the difference is not significant.
by "you" you mean basically everyone and by "believe" you mean it's a fact. if you can't prove counterfactuals, which you can't, it is a fact that the numbers are being inflated by the methodology. you do not know for a fact that any person with a comorbidity died DIRECTLY and SOLELY from 19. no person on earth has that knowledge.
If this whole thing is about you wanting 100% accuracy in ANYTHING AT ALL, then you're in for a whole lot of disappointment in this life.
quote:You are vastly overestimating how much these numbers might be inflated. In fact, there are very good reasons to believe that the death numbers are actually too low. Deaths from all causes are severely undercounted at first. This data is available if you want to see it. Weekly death counts in the US typically start between 30-40k, then gradually in the following weeks and months they are revised to a more typical 50-60k. Yes, we are paying much more attention to covid deaths in particular, but given the fact that it takes time to count everyone, it is possible, if not likely, that we are missing some.
but that doesn't even matter. the point isn't solely the reporting. the point is what is being done with the reporting as i have repeatedly stated to you. we know the methodology. it is what it is. given that, there is no reason to use the inflated numbers to justify anything in regards to the virus response.
quote:I've pointed out several times on this board that we can find a strong lower-bound on this number based on the NYC data. NYC has 8893 deaths so far, and total population of 8.4 million. We can assume 100% infection rate and the morbidity rate would be 0.1%. That is quite a large sample size, and NYC is relatively young and healthy. It is basically impossible that the true IFR is less than 0.1% until we have a vaccine or a proven treatment.
moreover, without knowing the number of asymptomatic people, we have NO IDEA what the morbidity rate is. none whatsoever. we won't even begin to have any idea of that number until antibody testing has a robust sample size which could take at least months if not more than a year.
quote:Have you not realized that "I" in this example is you in this thread? You have started with a baseless assumption (the data is inflated, at least to a point that is significant), so it's on you to prove that they are.
you started with the assumption that she was. prove that she was.
quote:"Your wife is a whore" = "the numbers are inflated".
this is a mistake you haven't caught on to which is common among non scholarly people. you are working from the presumption that your position is the default position, "your wife is a whore" and that any person who disagrees is under a burden to disprove it. that is called smuggled in authority.
If I call your wife a whore, I have to prove it. It would be absurd of me to shift the burden of proof onto you and ask you to prove that your wife is not a whore!
If you say the numbers are inflated, you have to prove it. It would be absurd of you to shift the burden of proof onto me and ask me to prove that the numbers are not inflated.
Do you get it now?
quote:I think it's ok for one main reason. The number of wrongly-attributed deaths is nowhere near as high as many of you think it might be. They aren't just tossing in car accidents and heart attacks in there. That's absurd. They are asking doctors to make an assessment based on symptoms. The "probables". This happens countless times per day, covid or not.
no, it's not. we have proof that the cdc has admitted they are including deaths that might not be directly caused by 19. you think it's ok because of your speculative leaps which no one can prove.
quote:Never once claimed that.
you are claiming that you know people with c19 are dying directly and solely because of c19
quote:The problem is you said his name as if that was supposed to mean something when it was completely unnecessary. Further, you didn't even specify what "facts" you were trying to lay out. It was literally just a casual mention of Hume "running some numbers" = "facts".
when i say ran some numbers, i mean he cited the numbers reported by the state of ny. it's like i'm talking to a child in an adult body.
quote:
this is just laughable at this point. you don't understand ANY of this.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 2:28 am to bfniii
quote:No need to back it up because I didn't say it. Now you're building a strawman. Need I point out that this is yet another fallacy?
you mean like when you think it's "statistics and probability" that people with comorbidities died directly and solely because of c19? because i haven't seen you back that up at all.
I did say that people who are dying of covid and had comorbidities most likely died due to covid. I even said the chances that they would have died during those weeks without covid is "practically zero". That is not at all the same as they died "directly and solely" due to covid.
But it does come down to a question of probability, precisely because it is impossible to know the specific cause of death in some cases, as you yourself have pointed out. You seem to think that we should not count a death as covid without 100% certainty. Is this correct?
Posted on 4/18/20 at 2:46 am to jimdog
quote:How many times do I have to say that I DO NOT BELIEVE WE SHOULD HAVE SHUT ANYTHING DOWN TO BEGIN WITH. I THINK THIS "CURE" IS FAR WORSE THAN THE DISEASE.
You need to open your eyes and learn. If understanding the enemy is your goal. In fact I think "understanding" is very low on your things to do list. And btw, I suspect the days of pretending there was not any problem passed way back when as we were restricted from our daily travels, having to wear a mask to go to the grocery, having needed medical procedures delayed, losing our jobs to the tune of upwards of 30 million. And deaths in this country close in on the flu death totals in 2018.
Not to mention democrats in congress running from their duties to keep from confronting the need to keep millions more from losing their jobs. I know saving our economy and avoiding a prolonged recession/depression which could make what we have seen look like child's play is likely not a very interesting idea for you. And I understand you are behind the news cycle but try to keep up. Things are being revealed as we post. And it's not my responsibility to keep you informed.
HOWEVER, it is my strong opinion that understating the risks is just as bad as overstating them. We need to try to be as honest about everything as possible, on all sides. Otherwise, as should be plainly obvious by now, this virus is made into an issue as divisive as everything else. It's a crying shame, really.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:07 am to jimdog
quote:
jimdog
If this thread didn't prove to you that you're a moron then you're hopeless and beyond the realm of improving your knowledge
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:58 am to Powerman
What! Another self appointed deep thinker who would dally around worrying abut semantics and poly correctness and hide behind sentence structure to keep from facing the reality that our nation and society are teetering on a state of near universal disaster. Running from a highly contagious flu? GTFO now!
Posted on 4/18/20 at 2:25 pm to Korkstand
quote:
No, 10X more people are dying from covid than diabetes every day right now.
Wrong
quote:
Ah, so this is yet another troll alter.
I think you mean a god damn patriot! Get your BS out of here baw!
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:02 pm to Korkstand
Kork,
Any attempt to engage this guy in a reasoned discussion is like an Uncle Remus story.
Extricate yourself before it is too late. Seriously.
Any attempt to engage this guy in a reasoned discussion is like an Uncle Remus story.
Extricate yourself before it is too late. Seriously.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:14 pm to Korkstand
Try to make sense of this if you please: This virus is a highly contagious cousin of or member of the varied viruses we call flu. It is here and not going away. It will linger and become strong about every Oct/Nov. There will soon be some sort of vaccine but like the current flu shots they are likely to be about 50/50. Still that will make it far less scary. It is now part of the American experience.
We cannot control that but we can control having a life worth living which is personified by a robust economy. We have the ability still (I think) to control that. If Stanford etc are even a little true this outbreak is spread far more than we think. Therefore unless you are old and or have some other serious illness the odds of you dying with CV are extremely remote. So control what we can control. The greatest lifestyle and life opportunity ever in world history.
Get back to work and open up the states using caution. Particularly in NY/NJ where the heart of the problem lies. Control immigration and some foreign travel for a time, etc. Practice social distancing within reason. NY/NJ rep almost half the US problem. We have all the materials (since most was/is not being used) we need to treat those who get anything other than a go home and recover. Which is almost everyone. But the great news is most everyone will soon be immune and or have the shot. And we still have lives worth living. And CV is just some more flu. And just maybe the obese and hard drinkers and or drug users will learn a lesson and live cleaner.
We cannot control that but we can control having a life worth living which is personified by a robust economy. We have the ability still (I think) to control that. If Stanford etc are even a little true this outbreak is spread far more than we think. Therefore unless you are old and or have some other serious illness the odds of you dying with CV are extremely remote. So control what we can control. The greatest lifestyle and life opportunity ever in world history.
Get back to work and open up the states using caution. Particularly in NY/NJ where the heart of the problem lies. Control immigration and some foreign travel for a time, etc. Practice social distancing within reason. NY/NJ rep almost half the US problem. We have all the materials (since most was/is not being used) we need to treat those who get anything other than a go home and recover. Which is almost everyone. But the great news is most everyone will soon be immune and or have the shot. And we still have lives worth living. And CV is just some more flu. And just maybe the obese and hard drinkers and or drug users will learn a lesson and live cleaner.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:17 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
Kork,
Any attempt to engage this guy in a reasoned discussion is like an Uncle Remus story.
Extricate yourself before it is too late. Seriously.
figures you and that asshat are board brothers
100000/330000000
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:27 pm to jimdog
quote:Good Lord.
Try to make sense of this if you please: This virus is a highly contagious cousin of or member of the varied viruses we call flu.
CV-19 is one of a family of viruses, all of which are called coronaviruses and one of which is the common cold.
The influenza family of viruses is NOT closely-related to the coronavirus family.
If you cannot understand something this basic, you really should not be opining on more complex issues.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:33 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
Any attempt to engage this guy in a reasoned discussion is like an Uncle Remus story.
Extricate yourself before it is too late. Seriously.
I know. Sometimes I just like to break up the monotony of the echo chamber around here.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 5:03 pm to AggieHank86
They are in fact under the broad umbrella of infectious viruses which share much commonality. Such as not doing well in sunlight, heat, humidity, long days. They spread similarly and attack the same systems with similar symptoms. The DNA is different but the DNA of the most common flu viruses are different and mutate as this almost surely will. In fact there were at least 4 kind of wide spread flu viruses this season. And the vaccines to neutralize them are ever changing.They are of the same species but a different family.
You are obviously not a virologist as neither am I. But to help you look at it like this. Symptoms, systems attacked, method of spread, optimum setting to flourish and many, many more common traits. DNA different but so is the DNA of every human different.
You are obviously not a virologist as neither am I. But to help you look at it like this. Symptoms, systems attacked, method of spread, optimum setting to flourish and many, many more common traits. DNA different but so is the DNA of every human different.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 5:19 pm to jimdog
quote:If you believe all of this to be true, then given the fact that covid ramped up during the time that flu ramps down, and it did so to an extent that the weekly death tolls well surpassed even the worst week of the worst flu season, then we will be well and truly fricked come winter.
They are in fact under the broad umbrella of infectious viruses which share much commonality. Such as not doing well in sunlight, heat, humidity, long days.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:18 pm to BeepNode
quote:in other news, it's being reported that as much as 85% of one cali county has c19 antibodies.
There was nothing wrong with them that I know of. It's pretty disturbing actually. One of them was athletic AF and his little boy was friends with my little boy. They're listing him as having underlying conditions because he had psoriasis but these auto-immune disorders are very common and many people don't even know they have it
this thing was WAYYYYY more widespread, earlier and less lethal than the experts let on
Posted on 4/18/20 at 11:36 pm to Korkstand
quote:you said it's not debatable that c19 was overwhelmingly the cause. not only is that statement debatable from a medical perspective, it's debatable from a social perspective. those are facts. you are wrong.
None of that has dick to do with the quote it was supposed to be a response to.
quote:once again, you don't even understand what you're responding to, just like you've done several other times. i wasn't talking about counterfactuals in regards to the social response. i was talking about you thinking you can know that c19 is directly the cause of death with comorbidities. citing "stats and probabilities" does not help you in the least. can you AT LEAST try to accurately reproduce what you are responding to?
We can discuss counterfactuals in regards to the shutdown if you'd like
quote:why are you acting like i have ONLY quoted the cdc to make my point when i have explained to you about 5 times i am mainly talking about what is being done with the morbidity reporting.
it is not merely quoting the cdc as you have misunderstood yet again.
you have got to be the most elaborate troll of all time. no one can misunderstand something this badly. not even aggiehank
quote:"it is OVERWHELMINGLY likely that covid is the cause of death"
I have never once claimed that anyone can know that with certainty.
that is a statement of certainty. “I am certain that…it is overwhelmingly…” NO ONE possesses that certainty.
quote:in your opinion. when it is being used to limit freedom, MANY people disagree with your opinion
The point is there is nothing outlandish about the methodology.
quote:this has nothing to do with anything i have said. you are special
If this whole thing is about you wanting 100% accuracy in ANYTHING AT ALL, then you're in for a whole lot of disappointment in this life.
quote:none of this changes the discussion because it’s not solely about the brute number. It’s about the CAUSE of death and how it is being used to prop up c19. I’m not sure why this is so hard for you to understand. Couple that with the fact that we don’t know the asymptomatic numbers and it lowers the morbidity, probably drastically. Especially if the cali study reported today is at all accurate
Deaths from all causes are severely undercounted at first. This data is available if you want to see it. Weekly death counts in the US typically start between 30-40k, then gradually in the following weeks and months they are revised to a more typical 50-60k. Yes, we are paying much more attention to covid deaths in particular, but given the fact that it takes time to count everyone, it is possible, if not likely, that we are missing some.
quote:none of this refutes what I said. And if the cali data is at all accurate, the morbidity is going to plummet which casts a serious shadow on the reporting which any reasonable person could see from a mile away.
I've pointed out several times on this board that we can find a strong lower-bound on this number based on the NYC data. NYC has 8893 deaths so far, and total population of 8.4 million. We can assume 100% infection rate and the morbidity rate would be 0.1%. That is quite a large sample size, and NYC is relatively young and healthy. It is basically impossible that the true IFR is less than 0.1% until we have a vaccine or a proven treatment.
quote:my word you have got to be the most dense person on this board. Let’s try this
You have started with a baseless assumption (the data is inflated, at least to a point that is significant), so it's on you to prove that they are.
P1 – numbers include people with comorbidities (according to the cdc themselves)
P2 – no one knows with certainty what the counterfactuals are, not even kork with his “stats and probabilities (fact)
C1 – the c19 morbidity is inflated, perhaps by a lot (the cali study is yet MORE substantiation)
quote:it’s sad you don’t understand I have already responded to this. We’ve already gone through this exercise
"Your wife is a whore" = "the numbers are inflated".
Me: the numbers are inflated
You: no they aren’t
Me: ok. Prove it
You: you can’t prove a negative
Me: I’m not asking you to do that. I’m asking you to show that you know for a fact that any person who is listed as a c19 death died specifically BECAUSE OF c19 and not a comorbidity. Otherwise, you don’t know if the death was ACTUALLY a c19 death.
You: “stats and probabilities”
Me:
quote:you are still acting like this is some “rule” that’s set in stone. It’s not. If you have a claim and want it to be convincing, then you CAN take up the burden if you want. If I don’t like your claim, I CAN take up a refutation burden. There is no “default burden” setting that has to be switched back and forth based on who is making what claim. I’m not sure why you’re not getting that.
If I call your wife a whore, I have to prove it. It would be absurd of me to shift the burden of proof onto you and ask you to prove that your wife is not a whore!
Again, if I make a claim and you say “nuh uhn,” you believe some OTHER claim is the truth. Otherwise, you refutation is just operating in a nonexistent, manufactured vacuum. you're basically saying "i don't know what happened but i know your claim didn't happen" which is obviously laughably absurd and juvenile. Until you show evidence of your alternative scenario, you don’t have any credibility. You’re just a child plugging your fingers in your ears.
I hope that explains it to you in a way you can understand. your position is not the "default" position and anyone who disagrees bears some imaginary "burden of proof." it's just a cowardly way of escaping a challenge to your belief.
quote:done. Glad that’s over.
If you say the numbers are inflated, you have to prove it.
quote:fine, prove it. show us some numbers. Prove your point without saying “stats and probabilities.” Until then, you’re just whistling past the graveyard.
The number of wrongly-attributed deaths is nowhere near as high as many of you think it might be.
quote:I know you aren’t catching on to this but, we aren’t shutting the country down for those other situations. THAT’S why people are protesting in the streets. It’s VERY MUCH debatable whether you like it or not.
The "probables". This happens countless times per day, covid or not.
quote:look up. I have quoted you doing just that. You’re turning in to 90npc
Never once claimed that.
quote:no, you read that into my statement, which is s.o.p. for you. I couldn’t care less if fritt plume cited the numbers. I don’t care who did it. I was referring to the numbers. Then you went off on a stupid appeal to authority rant.
you said his name as if that was supposed to mean something when it was completely unnecessary.
quote:”brit hume ran the numbers with prostate cancer reporting in nyc”
Further, you didn't even specify what "facts" you were trying to lay out.
I don’t know how much more specific you want to get than that. Do you need for me to hold your hand on this too?
quote:because it proved the point. I’m sorry you didn’t understand it. let me know if you need this explained more simply so you can follow because I assure you brit hume did not cite ny state prostate numbers as a part of a cake recipe
It was literally just a casual mention of Hume "running some numbers" = "facts".
quote:the number of things you have gotten wrong in this exchange is astonishing. You have consistently and thoroughly misunderstood/misquoted what you are trying to critique.
this is just laughable at this point. you don't understand ANY of this.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 11:39 pm to AggieHank86
quote:if you're referring to me, that is hilarious
Any attempt to engage this guy in a reasoned discussion is like an Uncle Remus story
you throw out some garbage about it's ok to murder a fetus up until the point it has sapience. when asked to define sapience and when a person has it, you admit you have no idea and then won't discuss the issue again
then you come into this thread and defend a person who has consistently misquoted someone, misapplied rhetorical practices and basically took a dump all over the topic
you are a work of art
don't even get me started on your homosexual ramblings
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:22 am to bfniii
quote:
bfniii
I'm done with you.
You either misunderstand or misrepresent absolutely everything. You don't understand the most basic of logical fallacies even after multiple attempts to explain it to you. You called it "made up discussion rules", for frick's sake. It's basic logic!
You say that all you're doing is quoting the CDC, but it is clear that you have applied your own interpretation to whatever you think you're quoting. When your interpretation is called into question, you fall back to "it's just facts from the CDC!" When it's pointed out that there is nothing nefarious about the specific CDC recs, you go back to some other interpretation about how they're applied and policy decisions based on whatever and yadda yadda. Not only have you failed to provide even one piece of evidence, or logic and reasoning, to back your claim, but the claim changes every time you are challenged on it.
You have simply ignored the fact that I DO NOT AGREE WITH THE DECISION TO SHUT DOWN. The data has NEVER supported the decision, and it likely never will. But that has absolutely dick to do with the accuracy of the data, the reporting, or anything related to the virus itself and its effects.
I don't even have the energy to get into all the other ways that your replies are fricked up. I have little choice at this point but to assume you are a troll, because there is no way any sane person can frick up as much math, logic, and common sense as you have here. I know that you either don't understand or don't trust probabilities, but the odds of your posts representing the actual thoughts of a rational person are essentially zero.
Like just really simple shite like this:
quote:You are just twisting the english language to suit your agenda! Not only that, but you made up a quote to attribute it to me! Just blatant lies, it's pathetic.
"it is OVERWHELMINGLY likely that covid is the cause of death"
that is a statement of certainty. [misleading edited "quote" from me removed] NO ONE possesses that certainty.
How can someone interpret "overwhelmingly likely" to mean "a certainty"?! Only a liar would do that.
And my claim of overwhelming likelihood is backed by very basic probabilities. It takes an absolute dipshit, or a troll, to even attempt to make a case that covid is not extremely likely to be the cause of death when a person dies while being ill with covid. There is no mystery magic math going on here. You don't even need math at all to reach this same very obvious conclusion.
In summary, I will give you credit for putting in a lot of effort. Unfortunately, you have gone much too far, and in doing so have exposed yourself as either an absolute moron or a troll. I'm not sure which. I put the odds at 50-50.
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