Democrats Launch #IWillVote Campaign to Get 50 Million People To Vote In November

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The blue wave may be real after all.

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their blue wave is a blue waffle

They have to open their fricking mouths between now and then.

Since everything coming out of them is extreme wacko bullshite they have a problem.

you might want to ask your doctor to prescribe some testosterone supplements

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The democrats have real energy and I can't help but be worried for the November results

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Have you noticed the "energy" that the Dems have had recently? It pittles out after a week or two and they are starting this campaign months before the election.

Also, they are getting Democrats to pledge to vote. When do they keep their word?

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Democrats Launch #IWillVote Campaign to Get 50 Million People To Vote In November

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Hold it right there one minute, junior. You trying to tell me the Democrats have stumbled across a slogan? Rare.

Is the same “high energy” voters that turned out in droves to get Hillary elected?

The tweet is time-stamped, Feb 28, 2018.

I posted this last week but its worth reiteraing. It's possible the DNC could take the House but when you start breaking down districts instead of state-wide congressional generic ballot polls, its a pretty daunting feat:


It's only in reference to the House and only based on a generic, state-wide congressional ballot. They don't break the polls down into districts which renders them almost useless. For instance, if a state has three Congressional Districts that poll as follows on a Congressional Ballot:

District 1 - 55/45 Republican
District 2 - 65/35 Democrat
District 3 - 52/48 Republican

Then it would be reported as a DNC-lean based on state wide figures despite the fact that the GOP is actually polling ahead in two of the districts.

Why do they poll state-wide when House elections don't work like that? Who knows.

Anyway, here is a pretty good website that tracks historical trends and internal polling for all of the House races:

Inside Elections

According to their data, the DNC will still have to flip six of the GOP "tilt" or "lean" seats to get the magic 218 number.

As of today, there are 185 "safe" democrat seats and 173 "safe" GOP seats. But there are 26 "likely" Republican seats to only 4 "likely" democrat seats. Tf we assume that they all fall as predicted, that brings the totals to:

GOP - 199
DNC - 189

Now, the next level is "lean" seats. There are only 3 "lean" DNC seats to 12 "lean" seats for the GOP. If they all go they way they lean, then:

GOP - 213
DNC - 192

The second to last level is "tilt" seats which means that a candidate is presumable polling just outside the margin of error. This splits 14 to the GOP and 7 to the DNC. The GOP only needs to win 5 of their 14 "tilt" seats to maintain a majority (assuming they hold all "likely" and "lean" seats.)

So what will it take for the DNC to gain the majority? They have a very hard road. They have to win their 4 "likely" and 3 "lean" seats, Then they have to win all of their 7 "tilt" seats. Then they have to win all 9 "toss-up" seats (where polling is within the margin of error.) And finally, they have to win 10 of the GOP's 14 "tilt" seats to get to 218.

In sum, State-wide polls on Generic Congressional Ballots aren't very valuable in terms of predicting this race. The House is trending towards the DNC but not at the numbers that suggest a significant DNC takeover. The DNC will have to basically not get upset in any of their expected Congressional Districts (even those with close margins), win all nine toss-ups, and then upset the GOP in ten other races to get a majority.

Need to get some people to make "No more borders! #votedem18" signs.