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re: Dateline WISCONSIN: early vote numbers in the Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington and Racine.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:25 pm to RuLSU
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:25 pm to RuLSU
I meant returned absentee ballots, sorry.
That's not surprising to me. In large Dem cities there won't be ANYONE voting on election day.
That's not surprising to me. In large Dem cities there won't be ANYONE voting on election day.
0
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:30 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Let me first say: Trump could 100% win Wisconsin. I don't think he will, but polling was waaaaaay off in 2016.
That said, I think this is just nonsense posted by some twitter person. There's no evidence of these numbers anywhere
I agree with you on it seeming like nonsense. Although I do think he will win most overwhelmingly white states, like Wisconsin, but these numbers seem way too good to be true. For example, in 2016 Waukesha had 236,270 total votes. According to electproject 63,994 mail-in ballots for Waukesha have already been returned while this says 51,579 in-person early votes have been recorded. That's over 50% of the 2016 vote already recorded. I guess it's possible but it just seems a bit outlandish to me.
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:34 pm to Covingtontiger77
These numbers are +30% for Trump from 2016.
If this is accurate, I can't see Trump losing a single rust belt state from PA to MN...
But how in the hell are these numbers accurate?
If this is accurate, I can't see Trump losing a single rust belt state from PA to MN...
But how in the hell are these numbers accurate?
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:42 pm to TakingStock
quote:
Hopefully that offsets some of the suburban losses and the impact of Madison & Milwaukee.
Waukesha is the suburban area between Madison and Milwaukee
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:43 pm to Covingtontiger77
Wow.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:50 pm to Stuckinthe90s
quote:
Well according to the state voting pages for Wisconsin, Early Voting doesn't start until 10/20, so I am not sure how they got these numbers. Maybe these are actually just registration numbers?
I think this is mail in ballots requested by party ID
Posted on 10/15/20 at 12:52 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:
Democrats are, by a large majority, voting by mail
Good. 4% of mail gets lost.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:07 pm to RuLSU
quote:
You're incorrect. 785k MAIL BALLOTS have been returned. Not sent. RETURNED.
I think every voter there got an application for an absentee ballot, but yea, that is a high number.
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:08 pm to Covingtontiger77
The data could simply be due to more people are trying to vote early to avoid crowds on election day... and/or Dems preferring vote by mail because they are afraid to show up in person.
However, it could indicate voter enthusiasm or be an insight for the margin of victory.
Bottom line: Republican vote tallies are WAY up (~ +33%) and Democrat vote tallies are WAAAYYY down (~ -71%).
And with Independent voters numbers being Insanely up also (~ +679% vs 3yr avg & ~ +308% vs 2016), this seems to be an indication of Voter Enthusiasm to me.
Here is the current increase in total republican votes and differential by county.
Washington
Total vote - R up 14% & D down 90% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 199% vs 08-16 average
Racine
Total vote - R down 0.7% & D down 54% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 440% vs 08-16 average
Waukesha
Total vote - R up 70% & D down 71% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 334% vs 08-16 average
Ozaukee
Total vote - R up 47% & D down 68% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 325% vs 08-16 average
*I question some of the Racine data. I assume it is a typo for two days, as it shows the exact same vote count for both R and D on 10/12 and 10/13.
However, it could indicate voter enthusiasm or be an insight for the margin of victory.
Bottom line: Republican vote tallies are WAY up (~ +33%) and Democrat vote tallies are WAAAYYY down (~ -71%).
And with Independent voters numbers being Insanely up also (~ +679% vs 3yr avg & ~ +308% vs 2016), this seems to be an indication of Voter Enthusiasm to me.
Here is the current increase in total republican votes and differential by county.
Washington
Total vote - R up 14% & D down 90% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 199% vs 08-16 average
Racine
Total vote - R down 0.7% & D down 54% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 440% vs 08-16 average
Waukesha
Total vote - R up 70% & D down 71% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 334% vs 08-16 average
Ozaukee
Total vote - R up 47% & D down 68% vs 08-16
Differential is: R up by 325% vs 08-16 average
*I question some of the Racine data. I assume it is a typo for two days, as it shows the exact same vote count for both R and D on 10/12 and 10/13.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:12 pm to Covingtontiger77
4 huge counties that were flipped in 2016
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:25 pm to fillmoregandt
These are the "WOW" counties where Scott Walker is from. He, Paul Ryan, Reince Prebus built a huge political machine. It's this area that helped Walker win and fight back the recall efforts and won the state for Johnson in senate race in 16. It's just early voting so far, but GOP turnout is even higher and turnout in blue counties is much lower for DEM. Going to be close but no way is Biden up double digits nationally and 7-9 points as most polls have shown in WI. It's going to come down to turnout...hoping Trump's decision to spend money on the ground game pays off.
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:44 pm to Covingtontiger77
If these numbers are correct, holy shite
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:45 pm to lsursb
Early voting doesn't start in Wisconsin until October 20th though right?
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:54 pm to BallsEleven
In person. These are mail in as I understand it.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 1:59 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
Early voting doesn't start in Wisconsin until October 20th though right?
Right, that's what was confusing me about the framing of the political party information.
The 785k number is returned mailed ballots... there has not been any IN PERSON voting yet.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 2:17 pm to Covingtontiger77
Anyone who thinks that voter turnout for the dems is going to high is severely mistaken.
Turnout for dems are going to be nowhere near what they were for Obama or Clinton. Anything that says it will is simply wrong.
Turnout for dems are going to be nowhere near what they were for Obama or Clinton. Anything that says it will is simply wrong.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 2:18 pm to Covingtontiger77
OOOFFFF.....not a good look Dems
Posted on 10/15/20 at 2:38 pm to 14&Counting
I don’t have time to delve into the numbers, but this is the website he’s getting his data from. LINK
Posted on 10/15/20 at 2:41 pm to Bunta
How do they know which party the ballots are since voters do not register by party in Wisconsin?
Gotta be very suspicious of those stats.
Gotta be very suspicious of those stats.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 2:42 pm to Bunta
Yep
I wouldn’t put too much stock into this model
quote:
How are modeled Democrat and Republican party alignment determined?
TargetSmart has developed a proprietary partisanship classification model to determine the likely political affiliation of a voter. This predictive model is trained using survey data and incorporates various data points such as vote history, party affiliation (where available), consumer interests, and demographic information to make a prediction of how likely a person is to align with the Democratic party. Those marked as Unaffiliated did not fall into a score range where we could make a confident prediction of affiliation. The partisan model was constructed using over 56,000 survey respondents, both over the phone and online. Model scores are expressed from 0-100, representing the probability that a person identifies as a Democrat. The model was used to score over 256 million voting age persons nationwide.
I wouldn’t put too much stock into this model
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 2:43 pm
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