re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

From the literature that I am reading, serious cases equals invasive oxygen. Vent, etc

That’s about the right ratio that we’re seeing with about 1/3rd of hospitalizations requiring a vent.

There appears to be some cases which get significantly worse around days 8-10 and need additional oxygen at that point, up to and including vent.

Have you seen anything other than general commentary on the effectiveness of the Hydroxychloroquine/Zpack treatment?

I've read that the sooner you start it after showing symptoms the better off you are.

I've also read that the first dosage of Hydroxychloroquine should be 400mg-600mg followed by 200mg a day combined with starting the Zpack on the first day.

I saw where India has issued guidance to their medical professionals to begin taking Hydroxychloroquine as an inhibitor to catching the virus, any guidance like that in the US?

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Have you seen anything other than general commentary on the effectiveness of the Hydroxychloroquine/Zpack treatment?

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I think doctors are feeling their way through this. My friend was started on it yesterday. He’s not suddenly better. But he’s been very sick for two weeks.

I'm just hoping that the commentary around taking as a preventative measure is real.

My wife has been taking Plaquenil(Hydroxychloroquine) for over a year due to health issues. She's in a very high-risk group if she gets infected. I am hoping (praying) that the fact she's on Plaquenil will help her ward it off.

(no message)

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Us having enough supply

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Average time on a vent: 10-12 days
Number of vents free: 40,000 (at least, this is a conservative estimate and prior to Covid 19)
If 1.4% of patients need a vent, then you could handle (all things being equal) almost 3 M concurrent cases of Covid 19. Or 1.5M current known and tested cases (assuming 50% symptomatic).

That’s on a rolling basis. So in a months time, you could theoretically handle almost two times that, assuming 10-12 days on a vent.

TThis is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary

If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.

Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.

I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

Deaths are starting to outpace case rates as a daily %. I guess that’s expected as it’s been reported there is a 5-10 day lag in onset of symptoms to fatalities. I could see us trending back up to about 2.5% when this thing is done if the treatment process doesn’t improve.

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I could see us trending back up to about 2.5% when this thing is done if the treatment process doesn’t improve.

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That seems high. I doubt it will be over 2% of confirmed cases.