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Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:43 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:43 pm to NYNolaguy1
I think we are paying attention to it. The question is after 2-3 more weeks of lockdown, are we going to keep acting like we should destroy our country to keep the curve as low as possible?
There will have to be a pivot at some point. The folks that advocate for months of this frighten me. This is the Great Depression coming our way and we are talking about toilet paper
There will have to be a pivot at some point. The folks that advocate for months of this frighten me. This is the Great Depression coming our way and we are talking about toilet paper
0
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:58 pm to Chromdome35
Major growth today in Total Cases, Deaths and finally serious cases shows some movement.
I will probably update once more tonight.
I will probably update once more tonight.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:02 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Major growth today in Total Cases, Deaths and finally serious cases shows some movement.
No no no no. This isn't right. PT told me this was a nothing burger and would go away. What's the deal?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:04 pm to Chromdome35
So the more and more we test for it the lower and lower the mortality rate gets.
Good to know.
Good to know.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:06 pm to Chef Free Gold Bloom
quote:
So the more and more we test for it the lower and lower the mortality rate gets.
Good to know.
I wish they posted this as a log graph and you could see how much of a spike todays deaths were. It was way above the rate it had been going. It is hard to see in the data as presented.
There was no spike in increased cases due to more testing.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 9:07 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:08 pm to PrinceVegeta
quote:
T told me this was a nothing burger and would go away.
CFR is half what is was 8 days ago.
quote:
What's the deal?
~100 people die every day in auto accidents in this country. Every day. Sundays. Christmas. Easter. Kwanzaa. Labor Day. July 4th.
Nothing shuts down. Nobody is ruined.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:08 pm to PrinceVegeta
quote:
PT told me this was a nothing burger and would go away.
It’s still a nothingburger from a statistical standpoint. It’s likely to end up as a nothingburger.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:09 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
There was no spike in increased cases due to more testing.
Unfortunately, it’s still not the easiest thing to qualify for a test. The spread of the virus is making testing more prevalent, but that’s probably backwards.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:09 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
100 people die every day in auto accidents in this country. Every day. Sundays. Christmas. Easter. Kwanzaa. Labor Day. July 4th.
Nothing shuts down. Nobody is ruined.
Except that death rate isnt increasing every day anywhere close to what youre seeing here.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:11 pm to the808bass
quote:
Unfortunately, it’s still not the easiest thing to qualify for a test. The spread of the virus is making testing more prevalent, but that’s probably backwards.
I get it, but theres this assertion that somehow new testing is driving these cases upward. Thats not exactly spelled out in the data.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:12 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Except that death rate isnt increasing every day anywhere close to what youre seeing here.
If 12K die in the next month, that's about 1/3 of 1 year of auto accident deaths. 1/3 of 1 year.
:letthatsinkin:
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:14 pm to NYNolaguy1
I do agree with that. We’re still seeing cases from a week ago, though.
So, as an example, a friend of mine tested positive this week. He had been exposed 10 days prior. Went to the ER with pain and soreness. Doctor recommended a CV test the next day. He got the results back in 24 hours.
It will be a while before we see if our social distancing is helping slow the spread.
So, as an example, a friend of mine tested positive this week. He had been exposed 10 days prior. Went to the ER with pain and soreness. Doctor recommended a CV test the next day. He got the results back in 24 hours.
It will be a while before we see if our social distancing is helping slow the spread.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:14 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
If 12K die in the next month, that's about 1/3 of 1 year of auto accident deaths. 1/3 of 1 year.
When do you think you start seeing 100+/day here? A week? Two weeks?
Is there a number that red flags in the brain start going off at?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:15 pm to the808bass
quote:
I do agree with that. We’re still seeing cases from a week ago, though.
So, as an example, a friend of mine tested positive this week. He had been exposed 10 days prior. Went to the ER with pain and soreness. Doctor recommended a CV test the next day. He got the results back in 24 hours.
It will be a while before we see if our social distancing is helping slow the spread.
I agree with all of this.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:16 pm to NYNolaguy1
I think it will be within the week. How fast the daily growth in deaths turns out to be will tell us.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:17 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Is there a number that red flags in the brain start going off at?
I don’t think the number is as important as the trajectory. 500 in one day is horrific from a personal standpoint. If it’s followed by 100 and then 0 then the 500 didn’t matter, statistically (however awful it is in the micro).
So if we aren’t seeing any slowdown in 3-4 weeks, all bets are off.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:17 pm to PrinceVegeta
quote:
What's the deal?
Nothing, other then your comprehension of data.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:18 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
How fast the daily growth in deaths turns out to be will tell us.
This is the point I am trying to make. Looking at the data and ignoring the second order rates is really missing the mark.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:19 pm to Chromdome35
so, is this graph encouraging at all?
I don't understand the numbers...
daily growth higher than it was a week ago
I don't understand the numbers...
daily growth higher than it was a week ago
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:23 pm to ApexTiger
quote:
daily growth higher than it was a week ago
The numbers will be a lagging indicator for us. It didn’t look bad and it was getting bad. Now it looks like it’s getting bad and it’s probably getting worse. Then it will look even worse and it will be getting better.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 9:24 pm
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