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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/8/20 at 3:04 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/8/20 at 3:04 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
The graphs are neither for us or against us, they are just a reflection of the numbers.
im turned on by your infinite wisdom
0
Posted on 4/8/20 at 3:04 pm to LSU2ALA
It’s in his google sheets.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 3:12 pm to baybeefeetz
We need to hope against hope that New York is just a weird outlier. If similar hotspots pop up in other massive cities then we are in for a seriously bumpy ride
Posted on 4/8/20 at 3:12 pm to the808bass
it's sort of poetic the mortality rate curve is starting to kinda look like a visualization of the Dunning-Kruger effect
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 4/8/20 at 3:15 pm to Tiguar
Appropriate.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 3:24 pm to Tiguar
My son, Deuce Midnight, is a living, breathing exemplar of the Dunning-Kruger.
And, he's a smart kid, somewhat ironically.
And, he's a smart kid, somewhat ironically.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:01 pm to Chromdome35
So Nevada recorded a HUGE number of new cases today 22K.
The problem is that the testing data doesn't support these new cases. See the graph below, you can see the # of positive tests vs new cases has been matched very closely up until today.
I wonder if this is a real number
The problem is that the testing data doesn't support these new cases. See the graph below, you can see the # of positive tests vs new cases has been matched very closely up until today.
I wonder if this is a real number
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:03 pm to Chromdome35
Nevada: 22k new cases and only 13 deaths. Does that sound right?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:04 pm to Chromdome35
Yeah, there was an article I found from yesterday saying the state had climbed above 2000 total cases. The 22k from today has to be fat fingered from somewhere.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:05 pm to Chromdome35
No, not really, I suspect they fat fingered an extra 2 to the front of the number
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:14 pm to Chromdome35
No way a state the size of Nevada jumped that high. Even 2k new cases seems crazy high.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:18 pm to huskerdawg5
Even if it was just 2k that's a great day to my eyes.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:20 pm to huskerdawg5
Yesterday their total cases increased by 134 to 2,087. Deaths increased from 12 to 58. So I think its safe to say that today's 22K number of new cases is not correct.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:21 pm to Chromdome35
So, Chrome, what’s your thought? Is there anyway to assume we are getting close to the top of the peak? We may be, but I just don’t think we are having enough tests/processing enough tests to make that assumption. If we are consistently around a 20% infected rate on tests and we are consistently around the same number of 110k to 130k, then we really don’t know if we are peaking or still climbing because of the bottleneck issue. All we can say is we aren’t declining. Do you agree?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:21 pm to Bunyan
quote:
Nevada: 22k new cases and only 13 deaths. Does that sound right?
Well, I don't think there is any way Nevada pulled 22k positives in a single day unless that is one huge arse backlog.
The new cases today are the deaths 10 to 20 days from now, so 13 deaths vs 22k new cases (if such a spike is warranted) wouldn't necessarily contradict.
I'm betting on the 10k digit being a fat-fingered 2 until further clarification.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:22 pm to baybeefeetz
Sure but 2k new cases seems crazy as well. Unless all came from Vegas or Reno at some mass gathering.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:24 pm to huskerdawg5
I think worldometer just corrected their numbers
Nevada was at 22k new cases and now it's back down to only 172 new cases
Big difference
Nevada was at 22k new cases and now it's back down to only 172 new cases
Big difference
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:26 pm to Bunyan
quote:
Nevada was at 22k new cases and now it's back down to only 172 new cases
Yeah, Nevada has barely 3 million and change, all in.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:29 pm to LSU2ALA
I agree with you 100000000%.
The only true indication of a turn is going to be in the death rate.
The slowing growth rate of total cases is not a reliable indicator of a turn for the reasons you mentioned.
If you do 147K tests a day (7-day average) at a 18-19% positive rate, your going to limit the growth of new cases per day to around 27K cases a day, which is close to what we have been seeing.
That 7-day testing average also includes a large outlier from Saturday of 216K new tests which is way outside the pattern of test results (kind of like Nevada is today).
If you remove that 216K number and run a 7-day average you get an average of 131K tests a day which at 19.31% positive (current cumulative rate) yields new cases of 25K per day. That's a bit below the 7-day new case average of 32K cases per day, however, the 7-day average positive test rate is 22.36% which when applied to the 131k daily average yields 29.2K new cases per day, much closer to the 7 day average.
The only true indication of a turn is going to be in the death rate.
The slowing growth rate of total cases is not a reliable indicator of a turn for the reasons you mentioned.
If you do 147K tests a day (7-day average) at a 18-19% positive rate, your going to limit the growth of new cases per day to around 27K cases a day, which is close to what we have been seeing.
That 7-day testing average also includes a large outlier from Saturday of 216K new tests which is way outside the pattern of test results (kind of like Nevada is today).
If you remove that 216K number and run a 7-day average you get an average of 131K tests a day which at 19.31% positive (current cumulative rate) yields new cases of 25K per day. That's a bit below the 7-day new case average of 32K cases per day, however, the 7-day average positive test rate is 22.36% which when applied to the 131k daily average yields 29.2K new cases per day, much closer to the 7 day average.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:30 pm to Chromdome35
They still not update the USA total numbers yet? Its showing 47k new cases.
Edit: Back down to 18k... Now 25k, hopefully it stays below yesterday
Edit: Back down to 18k... Now 25k, hopefully it stays below yesterday
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 4:47 pm
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