re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Oh I agree.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
















7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State


7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State


7-day average Positivity Rate

Passed Russia for most tests per capita among all countries with 10 million or more population.

Does any body know how tests work? How do we know that what they check for doesnt show up in normal cold/flu from years past. If we did 750,000 tests a day in 2019, would they all be negative? I am sceptical of people that pushed for more testing as a solution. Just seems like a way to push numbers higher. 750,000 tests during H1N1 would show how many deaths/cases?

Don't put much stock in these numbers after a holiday weekend. Week over Week comparisons are invalid for today as we're looking at essentially Monday numbers compared last Tuesday's numbers.

Overall it is a good drop though.

Even with the big testing drop the last couple of days, the percent positive dropping the way it has is a big deal. Hopefully we'll see hospitalizations drop below the June lows in the next 10 days or so (only about 4400 above June lows, and that low didn't include any hospitalizations in Florida I believe).

I'm still maintaining that states are starting to run out of people to test.

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Hopefully we'll see hospitalizations drop below the June lows in the next 10 days or so (only about 4400 above June lows, and that low didn't include any hospitalizations in Florida I believe).

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Missouri is seeing relatively high hospitalization rates versus deaths. We only had two deaths today. But we supposedly have over 800 Covid hospitalizations.

All good metrics. Wouldn't surprise me to see some of the averages bump up in the next couple of days as states play catchup, then hopefully we'll resume the downward march by the end of the week. I'm sure it's too much to ask for the states to dump everything in a single day instead of dragging it out for the entire week.

Positivity dropping by 3.5% on average is a big deal, really big.

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Missouri is seeing relatively high hospitalization rates versus deaths. We only had two deaths today. But we supposedly have over 800 Covid hospitalizations.

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Something I noticed in AZ - as hospitalizations with the elderly began to subside, we saw a ramp-up of younger people being admitted - which also drove the average length of hospital stay down. A few interesting dots to connect.

Something has been bothering me about the numbers for awhile now, specifically the total recovered versus active cases.

WOM lists nearly 3.8 million recoveries and just north of 2.5 million active cases. But as I look at state numbers, I know there is no way the active case load isn’t way overcooked and the recoveries way undercooked.

Take Florida. They list 528k of their cases active. The top 3 counties (Miami Dade, Broward and West Palm) list total cases minus deaths equals active cases. Not 1 has gone into the recovered category. Those three carry more than half of the active cases in the state. At worst, their active case count should stand at around 250k.

California is another example. Between Los Angeles, Alameda and Santa Clara , they carry around 280k of the state’s 370k active cases. None have reported recoveries.

Although I didn’t see breakdowns by county of other states, Georgia, Arizona, Virginia, Maryland and Missouri have grossly undercounted recoveries. There is no way that 75-80% of their total cases are still active. In Maryland’s case over 90%.

You have states and municipalities that are basing some of their decisions off numbers that aren’t close to reality. I believe our “active” case count in this country is around 1.7-1.8M. That’s a 30% drop in what is given as “the number”. Our recovery number should be closer to 4.5M.