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A not quite as detailed breakdown of the ABC/Washington Post poll this am
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:32 am
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:32 am
I don't have the time to read the whole thing this am, but here are some things that stand out at quick glance.
Here are the cross tabs: LINK
The poll reports 53-41 Biden lead.
20% of respondents aren't following the election closely. That number was 3% in 2016 at this time. People are sick of politics. People sick of politics stay home.
86% enthusiastic about supporting Trump. Slightly up from 83% same time in '16.
24% of GOP voters voting because they oppose Biden (down from 54% opposing Clinton). As I pointed out in my CNN poll thread. Hate votes cant be counted on at as high of rate as enthusiastic votes, so this is a positive for Trump.
A negative for Biden, 56% oppose Trump (CNN poll said 58%, so this is not an outlier). This has trended up about 20% from '16.
29% of Dem voters disapprove of Kamala Harris as VP.
10% are less likely to vote for Biden because of Kamala (CNN was 16%). Again, McCains choice of Palin was the only one higher here in recent years.
Sample size
521 Democrats
415 Republicans
No breakdown by race.
Here are the cross tabs: LINK
The poll reports 53-41 Biden lead.
20% of respondents aren't following the election closely. That number was 3% in 2016 at this time. People are sick of politics. People sick of politics stay home.
86% enthusiastic about supporting Trump. Slightly up from 83% same time in '16.
24% of GOP voters voting because they oppose Biden (down from 54% opposing Clinton). As I pointed out in my CNN poll thread. Hate votes cant be counted on at as high of rate as enthusiastic votes, so this is a positive for Trump.
A negative for Biden, 56% oppose Trump (CNN poll said 58%, so this is not an outlier). This has trended up about 20% from '16.
29% of Dem voters disapprove of Kamala Harris as VP.
10% are less likely to vote for Biden because of Kamala (CNN was 16%). Again, McCains choice of Palin was the only one higher here in recent years.
Sample size
521 Democrats
415 Republicans
No breakdown by race.
7
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:33 am to anc
quote:
521 Democrats
415 Republicans
Is this the ratios ultimately used?
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:35 am to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Is this the ratios ultimately used?
Voter registration is a terrible way of breaking down polls in this era of politics. They are going to figure it out this year.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:37 am to anc
How many independents?
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:42 am to Jake88
520 Dems polled. 410 Republicans. Poll result: 53-41. Wow! Who woulda thunk it?
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:44 am to bluestem75
The number of polled Dems is 56% of the total polled.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:46 am to anc
So 56% of people polled were democrats and Biden got 53% of the vote.
44% republicans and Trump gets 41%
Seems like the only thing that matters is how many democrats or republicans you are polling.
44% republicans and Trump gets 41%
Seems like the only thing that matters is how many democrats or republicans you are polling.
This post was edited on 8/17/20 at 8:47 am
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:47 am to anc
Polls don't matter until we know whether or not we have unfettered mail in voting.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:47 am to SCLibertarian
quote:
The number of polled Dems is 56% of the total polled.
Yep. If they polled 56% Republicans it would be a 20 point lead for Trump.
Nationwide its 31-25-40
Thats why these polls lean +5 Dem.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:47 am to bluestem75
So they didn't poll independents? If so, this poll is straight propaganda.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:50 am to anc
TRUMP UP IN POLL BY 100 POINTS!!!
(Poll of 100 Republicans, 0 Democrats)
Red wave coming baby!!!!
(Poll of 100 Republicans, 0 Democrats)
Red wave coming baby!!!!
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:51 am to Jake88
quote:
So they didn't poll independents? If so, this poll is straight propaganda.
Well, I mean, that's the entire point.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:51 am to made4lsu
This election will come down to enthusiasm. Let them keep reporting Biden in the lead. Those voting simply against Trump will be less motivated to vote thinking it’s a done deal. OTOH, Trump voters are very enthusiastic and motivated.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:51 am to anc
quote:
521 Democrats 415 Republicans
Sample is weighted 56 - 44% Democrats
Totally explains the Biden lead.....if re-weighted to reflect even 2016 voters, Trump leads by 3!even more given shift away from far left Democrats
As Rush says, this was another "suppression" poll like those from NYT, Fox etc
Landslide for DJT coming!!
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:53 am to Jake88
quote:
So they didn't poll independents? If so, this poll is straight propaganda.
Yep. The CNN poll was decent. The data was skewed to fit the desired headlines, but the poll was fine. You just have to dig into the data.
This was pure propaganda.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:58 am to anc
quote:
53-41 Biden lead
Let me know when they tally the Electoral College.
Last time I checked, those are the only numbers that count.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 9:00 am to anc
quote:Holy shite! I cant recall a poll that had no independents.
Yep
Is RCP going to include this garbage in their running average?
Posted on 8/17/20 at 9:15 am to made4lsu
quote:Totally ignoring the voters who are independents and who make up 38% of the electorate, AND skewing the poll results by overloading DEMS at 56% when they actually comprise only 28%.
So 56% of people polled were democrats and Biden got 53% of the vote.
44% republicans and Trump gets 41%
Seems like the only thing that matters is how many democrats or republicans you are polling.
Party affiliation in the USA
Posted on 8/17/20 at 9:15 am to anc
quote:
Yep. The CNN poll was decent. The data was skewed to fit the desired headlines, but the poll was fine. You just have to dig into the data.
This was pure propaganda.
I get what you are saying, but they are both propaganda IMO.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 9:18 am to bluestem75
quote:
520 Dems polled. 410 Republicans. Poll result: 53-41. Wow! Who woulda thunk it?
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