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re: 3rd quarter GDP second estimate bumped up from 3.0% to 3.3%
Posted on 12/4/17 at 10:58 am to GumboPot
Posted on 12/4/17 at 10:58 am to GumboPot
much stronger. do you know what got released to prompt the update? seems like the industrial-type indices have been the most optimistic datapoints
i think a 4q forecast oscillating between about 2.7 - 3.5 feels about right, and the quarter should wind up near the middle there. just my feeling.
i think a 4q forecast oscillating between about 2.7 - 3.5 feels about right, and the quarter should wind up near the middle there. just my feeling.
1
Posted on 12/4/17 at 11:15 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 2.6 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment spending growth increased from 6.7 percent to 8.4 percent after the ISM report and this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 11:52 am to GumboPot
Why is there a difference between Atlanta fed estimate and ny fed estimate?
Posted on 12/4/17 at 12:04 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
they're different models
Posted on 12/4/17 at 12:13 pm to 90proofprofessional
One other question: is total year GDP growth just all 4 quarters added up and then divided by 4?
Posted on 12/4/17 at 12:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
not exactly, but that would nearly always get you close enough to it (probably 
). wouldn't be exact for a few reasons, including the fact that they're always updating seasonality estimates
). wouldn't be exact for a few reasons, including the fact that they're always updating seasonality estimatesPosted on 12/9/17 at 3:35 pm to GumboPot
down to 2.9 after a couple of disappointing data points
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