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Message
2024 senate map
Posted on 11/3/22 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 11/3/22 at 1:52 pm
Looking at the map, almost all the close races will be in states with a democratic incumbent.
Florida and Texas both run candidates but neither show they’re going to elect a D statewide in the next 2 years.
Some D incumbents running:
Montana
Virginia
Ohio
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Arizona
Pennsylvania
We will get a clearer picture on Tuesday at several of these states and how they’d vote for state wide candidates but there are some huge pickup opportunities for republicans in there. Especially in a presidential election year that may throw Biden out of office if his favorability doesn’t turn up.
Thoughts? If Desantis or trump win the White House that year, they likely bring the senate with them if they haven’t already in 2022, or they expand their margins they gained in 2022 a good bit.
Florida and Texas both run candidates but neither show they’re going to elect a D statewide in the next 2 years.
Some D incumbents running:
Montana
Virginia
Ohio
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Arizona
Pennsylvania
We will get a clearer picture on Tuesday at several of these states and how they’d vote for state wide candidates but there are some huge pickup opportunities for republicans in there. Especially in a presidential election year that may throw Biden out of office if his favorability doesn’t turn up.
Thoughts? If Desantis or trump win the White House that year, they likely bring the senate with them if they haven’t already in 2022, or they expand their margins they gained in 2022 a good bit.
5
Posted on 11/3/22 at 1:55 pm to jlovel7
Very possible for Trump to have a filibuster-proof Senate and near supermajority House in 2024.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 1:57 pm to jlovel7
The map for 2022 was very unfavorable for the GOP, and it looks like we might pick up some seats. You can go ahead and mark Montana, Ohio and West Virginia down as flips in 2024, and maybe some of the others depending on how the next two years goes.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 1:59 pm to BengalOnTheBay
quote:
Very possible for Trump to have a filibuster-proof Senate and near supermajority House in 2024.
It’s partially why the democrats are pushing for an indictment. They indict Trump, his support will grow even more
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:04 pm to armtackledawg
Do you think Synema survives in AZ? If Governor Lake endorses the Republican running, I don't know that she does. Although, she could always switch parties by then. Actually, I wouldn't honestly be surprised to see her and Manchin switch parties. They would be the only ones capable of doing it without it looking like a ruse.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:07 pm to BengalOnTheBay
But will the fck wad RINO’s like McConnell and McCarthy actually take advantage of this incredible opportunity…
Or, will they fight Trump on everything?
I hate those useless bastards.
Or, will they fight Trump on everything?
I hate those useless bastards.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:16 pm to Reservoir Ag
They'll fight Trump. We really need McCarthy to lose power and I think McConnell is on his last ride. I just can't imagine the state that elects Rand Paul to elect McConnell. Not anymore.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:25 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
Do you think Synema survives in AZ?
I think AZ is more blue than it is red. Lake is a far superior candidate to Hobbs, and should be polling 10+ ahead. But, she is not and that tells me that AZ is becoming the new VA.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:27 pm to armtackledawg
I thought Mark Kelly was in trouble there too. Is that just Masters riding Lake's coattails?
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:27 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
Do you think Synema survives in AZ?
Yes.
Manchin is toast. If I were him, I'd just retire. Synema will win. She is the only remaining sane democrat. Independents will vote for her. She's done a good job for Arizona.
She won't change parties. If anything, she could go independent. Synema is what Democrats were like before they went batshit.
I was more wrong about her than any other politician I've ever been wrong about. I thought she was going to be Senator AOC bc of the goofy outfits bc she's bisexual and bc she made jokes about Arizona people. She's been sensible and a class act since elected.
McSally sucked so bad. Masters is lucky that his opponent is the astronaut.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:29 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
I thought Mark Kelly was in trouble there too. Is that just Masters riding Lake's coattails?
Masters has not been ahead in any poll, unlike GOP candidates in GA, NV, PA and even NH. I might be wrong, but I think all of those California migrants are turning AZ blue.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:36 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
I just can't imagine the state that elects Rand Paul to elect McConnell.
You do realize that Kentucky elected a democrat governor who is still in office two years after it voted for Trump, right?
ETA: Not saying that KY would elect a democrat Senator, but to say they won't re-elect RINO Mitch just because Rand Paul is the other Senator seems a little bit of a reach...unfortunately.
This post was edited on 11/3/22 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:40 pm to LSUSkip
quote:A GOP primary would eat him alive.
Manchin switch parties
Kyrsten Sinema is different. There is a chance that if Kelly loses, she drops the Dems and flips to Indy or GOP. The Democrat animus/vitriol directed at her has been one of the most underreported ugly Dem political elements since Biden took office.
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:44 pm to Wednesday
quote:
Manchin is toast. If I were him, I'd just retire.
His own party torpedoed him. Thank goodness.
quote:
Synema will win. She is the only remaining sane democrat. Independents will vote for her. She's done a good job for Arizona.
It's true. I disagree with her on some pretty major issues, but she's not a crazy insane fascist like most in her party are now. Unfortunately, that counts for something these days.
This post was edited on 11/4/22 at 12:53 am
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:45 pm to Wednesday
quote:
Manchin is toast. If I were him, I'd just retire.
You say that, but I thought he was going to be toast 2018 after WV went overwhelmingly to Trump just a year earlier.
I think the only way he won't get re-elected is if the democratic party decides to primary him.
This post was edited on 11/3/22 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:46 pm to armtackledawg
quote:As of Oct 1, Kelly outspent Masters $75.5 million to $9.9 million in AZ.
Masters has not been ahead in any poll
Turtle has done one HELLUVA job with the GOP Senate Majority fund, hasn't he though?
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:50 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
As of Oct 1, Kelly outspent Masters $75.5 million to $9.9 million in AZ.
That is ridiculous
Posted on 11/3/22 at 2:55 pm to BengalOnTheBay
So.. Trump will be 78 in 2 years. DeSantis is just waiting to get him on stage,,,
Posted on 11/3/22 at 3:03 pm to armtackledawg
quote:But Murkowski is well-funded vs her GOP opponent
That is ridiculous
Posted on 11/3/22 at 3:06 pm to NC_Tigah
If Sienema and Manchin don't flip party affiliations, they may be done if Trump and others unleash a huge campaign upon them.
If they did a switch, however, they would be no better than the likes of Mittens and Murkowski.
If they did a switch, however, they would be no better than the likes of Mittens and Murkowski.
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