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Will we see a fish population explosion due to less pressure?
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:10 pm
with less people fishing, there's less pressure thus more fish. do we see a fish stock explosion in the upcoming years?
This post was edited on 7/6/10 at 9:20 pm
6
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:11 pm to Coon
I get what your saying but I highly doubt it.
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:11 pm to Coon
what? can the fishermen take more than the oil will kill directly and through the food chain?
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:12 pm to Coon
quote:
do we see a fish stock explosion in the upcoming years?
Maybe, if the gulf catches fire
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:12 pm to Coon
I don't think fishing could really do much to most species down here. Especially specks. With no limits and three times the fishermen, maybe.
This post was edited on 7/6/10 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:15 pm to Prolate Spheroid
what i'm say is that many areas that are moderately affected by the oil (like west of the river) may be seeing less pressure and won't be that hurt AS BAD by the oil (as opposed to east of the river/ms).
note: i'm not saying that the oil isn't hurting places dramatically, but it's not like there's a 1' sheet of oil across the entire gulf coast.
note: i'm not saying that the oil isn't hurting places dramatically, but it's not like there's a 1' sheet of oil across the entire gulf coast.
This post was edited on 7/6/10 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 7/6/10 at 9:15 pm to Coon
too soon to tell. After Katrina there was because fishing pressure was greatly decreased but then again the water remained the same.
so many factors at stake and many unknowns. The spawning periods are critical. Oil underwater, oil on surface, perhaps dispersant chemicals, all might have an influence on larvae survival.
Bluefin tuna is expected to get hit hard. They spawn on the continental shelf where the gusher is occurring and the larvae float to the top (and now most likely in gooey oil) being skimmed.
so many factors at stake and many unknowns. The spawning periods are critical. Oil underwater, oil on surface, perhaps dispersant chemicals, all might have an influence on larvae survival.
Bluefin tuna is expected to get hit hard. They spawn on the continental shelf where the gusher is occurring and the larvae float to the top (and now most likely in gooey oil) being skimmed.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 12:00 am to Coon
quote:
but it's not like there's a 1' sheet of oil across the entire gulf coast.
Really!!!!!
The rig I'm on is exactly 50 miles straight west of the DWH site in the Ewing Bank blocks and we haven't seen so much as a sheen. I hope it stays that way.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 12:13 am to LSUKNUT
The fish will be fine. yes next year will be great for fishing.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 12:21 am to C
quote:
Really!!!!!
The rig I'm on is exactly 50 miles straight west of the DWH site in the Ewing Bank blocks and we haven't seen so much as a sheen. I hope it stays that way.
What ive been saying for the past month but Charlie and the crew say that im just a little college intern and that the GOM will be a sea of death within the year.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 2:15 am to GREENHEAD22
Fishing explosion. This year no doubt the fishing west of the river will be better if we ever get to go due to lack of pressure. Talking about specks and reds.
Most fish and shrimp populations are probably higher right now. People kill so many fish that there has to be limits put on how many you can catch and sometimes seasons because recreational fisherman can have a huge impact of the fish stocks.
IF there is a noticeble negative impact on specs it will only be on the East side of the river. And that will only be due to a lower year class due to loss of spawn survival. Not my prediction just a possibility. I DON'T KNOW.
But certainly a number of species will be more susceptible to population impacts depending on how, when and where they spawn. Tuna as mentioned will almost certainly be more impacted than specks.
But even tuna might get a break. The tuna go where the bait is. Tuna do not just go where they want and eat what is there. They follow the food. If the food has largely abandoned the oiled areas then maybe the hit they take will not be as bad as it might otherwise have been.
This will all be more clear in a year or two. Everyone including myself has beliefs on what we think the impact will be. We will not know for sure how big the impact will be on the spawn yet. For the most part the adult fish will survive unharmed. The unknown is the spawn.
Even if there is a complete failure of some species spawn it isn't the end of the world. Complete failures have happened before. For instance there has been complete failures of Amberjack spawn where entire year classes are never seen.
For all we know the diversions running wide open are going to hurt the trout spawn more than the actual oil. Freshwater isn't condusive to a great speck spawn.
Most fish and shrimp populations are probably higher right now. People kill so many fish that there has to be limits put on how many you can catch and sometimes seasons because recreational fisherman can have a huge impact of the fish stocks.
IF there is a noticeble negative impact on specs it will only be on the East side of the river. And that will only be due to a lower year class due to loss of spawn survival. Not my prediction just a possibility. I DON'T KNOW.
But certainly a number of species will be more susceptible to population impacts depending on how, when and where they spawn. Tuna as mentioned will almost certainly be more impacted than specks.
But even tuna might get a break. The tuna go where the bait is. Tuna do not just go where they want and eat what is there. They follow the food. If the food has largely abandoned the oiled areas then maybe the hit they take will not be as bad as it might otherwise have been.
This will all be more clear in a year or two. Everyone including myself has beliefs on what we think the impact will be. We will not know for sure how big the impact will be on the spawn yet. For the most part the adult fish will survive unharmed. The unknown is the spawn.
Even if there is a complete failure of some species spawn it isn't the end of the world. Complete failures have happened before. For instance there has been complete failures of Amberjack spawn where entire year classes are never seen.
For all we know the diversions running wide open are going to hurt the trout spawn more than the actual oil. Freshwater isn't condusive to a great speck spawn.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 9:11 am to omegaman66
The amberjack occurrence was due to disease, same thing with hardheads years ago.
In that case you wipe out the adults. In this case you are potentially wiping out the eggs. FIshing my seem good for a year or two after the spill then all of a sudden it could collapse due to very poor recruitment classes.
But also the spawning grounds such as blue crabs. They've been fighting for years to get the location a protected area now its being dredged for berms.
With Tuna and many other species, they think everything is fine where they are on the continental shelf, plenty of forage and suitable habitat. Larvae float to the top and could get entrapped in the oil slick on the surface.
Fish larvae are very susceptible to environmental changes and conditions, let alone oil and potential toxins from dispersants.
In that case you wipe out the adults. In this case you are potentially wiping out the eggs. FIshing my seem good for a year or two after the spill then all of a sudden it could collapse due to very poor recruitment classes.
But also the spawning grounds such as blue crabs. They've been fighting for years to get the location a protected area now its being dredged for berms.
With Tuna and many other species, they think everything is fine where they are on the continental shelf, plenty of forage and suitable habitat. Larvae float to the top and could get entrapped in the oil slick on the surface.
Fish larvae are very susceptible to environmental changes and conditions, let alone oil and potential toxins from dispersants.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 9:23 am to Mudminnow
I'm interested to see what effect the closings have on populations, given there is hardly any bi-catch in the trawler's nets now. A year without Long-Liners in the North Central Gulf will also be interesting. Maybe, just maybe, this will force the Admin. to set uniform limits on Snapper, AJ, and other species for EVERY Gulf Coast State, and not continue to favor Tx. and Fla. as in the past.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 7:31 pm to blueTunaTiger
This is actually the most informative, balanced and honest "discussion" I've seen in a while in this corner of the board... 
Posted on 7/7/10 at 8:39 pm to yurintroubl
Yep I mentioned in the early goings that a silver lining might be a good boost to redsnapper recruitment. Shrimpers kill a lot of the juveniles every year in nets as bycatch. Well that isn't happening this year in the closed areas.
But snapper are relatively long lived species of fish so it won't have the affect that it might on species that have a shorter lifespan.
But snapper are relatively long lived species of fish so it won't have the affect that it might on species that have a shorter lifespan.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 11:04 pm to omegaman66
quote:
Yep I mentioned in the early goings that a silver lining might be a good boost to redsnapper recruitment. Shrimpers kill a lot of the juveniles every year in nets as bycatch. Well that isn't happening this year in the closed areas.
But snapper are relatively long lived species of fish so it won't have the affect that it might on species that have a shorter lifespan.
meh...again the issue could be losses of cohorts, a reduction in numbers of several cohorts or decreased spawning ability of the spawning population.. As such the fishing pressure on the population a few years from now could cause serious issues with the reproductive stock.
As usual, early life stages are most susceptible to environmental contaminants, skimming, etc...therefore the effects on the long-term fishing sustainability of the population may be an issue.
Posted on 7/7/10 at 11:33 pm to CptBengal
The water surface where the eggs are will be free of oil next year so I don't believe we will see more than a one year on the eggs.
Put another way I would believe that next year any 15 pound snapper should have the same reproductive potential as a 15 pound snapper at anytime in the past.
Both the oil (in a harmful form) and any trace amounts of corexit will have been consumed by bacteria by next spawning season and should not have an impact of the fish to spawn successfully in the future.
Put another way I would believe that next year any 15 pound snapper should have the same reproductive potential as a 15 pound snapper at anytime in the past.
Both the oil (in a harmful form) and any trace amounts of corexit will have been consumed by bacteria by next spawning season and should not have an impact of the fish to spawn successfully in the future.
Posted on 7/8/10 at 12:00 am to omegaman66
quote:
The water surface where the eggs are will be free of oil next year so I don't believe we will see more than a one year on the eggs.
larval recruitment corridor......
quote:
Put another way I would believe that next year any 15 pound snapper should have the same reproductive potential as a 15 pound snapper at anytime in the past.
Lab studies and effects from other spills around the world on long lived species say otherwise. but again, thats why we are doing the research, to answer these questions.
quote:
Both the oil (in a harmful form) and any trace amounts of corexit will have been consumed by bacteria by next spawning season and should not have an impact of the fish to spawn successfully in the future.
You sure do know alot of things for certain, considering the scientific community is mobilizing to study these effects. I'm curious, do you know how long a microbial culture takes to break down a barrel of weathered crude?
Posted on 7/8/10 at 1:49 am to CptBengal
quote:
do you know how long a microbial culture takes to break down a barrel of weathered crude?
With or without dispersants? It is a lot quicker if the dispersants are used.
quote:
However, he said, "The much-reduced fishing pressure on fisheries that are normally over-fished meant that the fisheries' recovery went quite quickly. A few years down it was difficult to see any effect on the organisms. The damage the oil did was, to a significant extent, compensated or even overcompensated by the fact that you didn't have fishing."
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