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Started By
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why is the top kill taking so long?
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:24 am
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:24 am
an article on NOLA.com said it was originally planned for May 18. Now it is planned for Wednesday morning and I have no faith in that. What is the delay?
3
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:28 am to The Hamburglar
They are going over the engineering i think to make sure there are no snags but hell, I don't know what is truth anymore. Seems BP is walking on egg shells. This fails, they are gonna get pummelled.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:49 am to back9Tiger
another poster made the suggestion that BP knows this is going to fail, knows they are going to get slammed when it does, so they are just trying to drag it on to buy themselves some time to come up with another excuse.
Supporting the above, the COO of BP said on the Today show this morning that he gives the probability of success by topkill a 6 out of 10, with 10 being sure it will work. He then went on to say that BP is ready to try other options if this fails. They are like a broken record.
Supporting the above, the COO of BP said on the Today show this morning that he gives the probability of success by topkill a 6 out of 10, with 10 being sure it will work. He then went on to say that BP is ready to try other options if this fails. They are like a broken record.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:53 am to The Hamburglar
I dont see how it is going to work. seems like any kind of liquid they put into the bop would just get blown out of the pipe. unless I am missing something.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:54 am to The Hamburglar
quote:
an article on NOLA.com said it was originally planned for May 18. Now it is planned for Wednesday morning and I have no faith in that. What is the delay?
The guy at the link below does a good job of explaining some of the issues. He's a production guy, doesn't work for BP, and he's not sure of some of his assumptions. More knowledgeable posters here may disagree with it, but this would be a good starting point for a discussion. The bottom line is that they are being as cautious as they can be because they really don't know if this is going to work and it could make things a lot worse.
LINK
If you go to his home page, he has some good posts on how screwed up the booming has been.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 4:25 pm to Indiana Tiger
How can it make things worse? Not an ugly question ... I've read that/heard that but how? Thanks.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 4:37 pm to tiger91
quote:
How can it make things worse? Not an ugly question ... I've read that/heard that but how? Thanks.
There are others here who could answer more authoritatively than I, but here's one reason. The BOP's aren't working in the sense that they didn't shut off the flow of oil, but they are restricting the flow of oil. How much? Depends on how much is really leaking and what the max flow could be.
If the top kill fails the BOP's could completely fail. Not a certainty, but a distinct possibility. We could see flows well in excess of 100MB/da (4.2 million gals) if it happens.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 4:59 pm to Indiana Tiger
Wasn't one theory that the BOP got some of the cement in it and therefore that's perhaps why it failed??? I heard one oil/gas guy on the Moon Griffon show this am .. gave a basic rundown of how things should work ... I think he said that the problem must have happened outside the casing as the BOP didn't work ... and that there is a "triple redundency" (yeah, I know spelling) meaning 3 chances for it to have worked and it didn't ... ?????
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:17 pm to tiger91
quote:
Wasn't one theory that the BOP got some of the cement in it and therefore that's perhaps why it failed
that's extremely unlikely. after the primary cement job was completed, the order operations in setting the casing hanger required the BOP to be functioned and hold pressure -- which it did. furthermore, the negative test, while unacceptable, required additional BOP functionality and pressure integrity and this was shortly before the incident occured.
quote:
outside the casing
what he may be saying is that the well is flowing behind the production casing then enterring the BOP stack basically immediately below. that the well is not flowing up the 9 7/8" x 7" production casing, rather it is flowing behind it in the annular space. this is for the most part the theory BP advanced before congress.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:22 pm to oilfieldtiger
quote:
oilfieldtiger
Do you think they will leave in the insertion tube in while they try this. Sounds like they inject the cement/debris from a different point?
This post was edited on 5/24/10 at 9:23 pm
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:23 pm to The Hamburglar
quote:
an article on NOLA.com said it was originally planned for May 18. Now it is planned for Wednesday morning and I have no faith in that. What is the delay?
Then, why ask?
Posted on 5/24/10 at 9:24 pm to paulie
That link is cool. Thanks
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