re: Interesting Interview

It's amazing to me how posters on this board, when they hear something they don't like, immediately resort to ad-hominem attacks of the source rather than refuting their facts. Then a chorus of agreement ensues. Not one reasonable refutation in this thread. Just insults and attacks on credibility.

Any Presidential Energy Advisers care to comment?

:rofl:

Shooting the messenger does not disprove his message. Obviously, the naysayers here have been proven wrong again and again.

Nobody wants this to be as bad as it is, but I can understand why so many here wish it to be less bad than it is.

Wish in one hand, spit in the other...

Matthew Simmons:

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Matthew Simmons, chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International, is a prominent oil-industry insider and one of the world's leading experts on the topic of peak oil.

Simmons was motivated by the 1973 energy crisis to create an investment banking firm catering to oil companies. In his previous capacity, he served as energy adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush.

Matthew Simmons believes the Club of Rome predictions are more accurate than usually acknowledged [1].

Simmons is an advisor to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre. He is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations.

He believes a careful assessment of Saudi Arabian oil reserves is the most significant issue shaping petroleum politics.

Simmons is the author of the book Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. His examination of oil reserve decline rates helped raise awareness of the unreliability of Middle East oil reserves as the published reports have never been verified.

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I'm waiting for actual reasons to not believe them and reasons to believe the fed gov't and oil officials. I don't trust any of them.

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they said the leak on the vid is too small to have made it

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based on what analysis, just looking at the video?

at least the purdue professor and scientists specializing in estimating these kinds of flows have analysis they can present to back their case.

it's very unlikely. if there was something outside of the wellhead leaking (known as broaching) it would be most likely in the immediate vicinity of the wellhead and BOP -- like within 200'. it gets complex why this would happen, but it involves the weaker rock strength approaching surface and the strenght of the rock and cement jobs at the ends of previous casing strings.

the weakest of the casing strings is the exposed 22" string near the mudline, which has a burst rating ~10,000 psi. if a string of casing were to fail and broaching were to occur, it would be here -- which is only exposed for about 200' beneath the mudline. this string is also well cemented back to the mudline (it has to be as it provides signficant structural support for the well) plus in this particular well is also has a well cemented string of 28" caisng on the outside of it. in short, it is very unlikely that it happened at all given the wellbore geometry, but even more unlikely that if it did happen, it would broach to surface very far from the wellhead.

it is inconceivable to me that the earth fractured 13,000' beneath the mudline and opened a channel straight up to the seafloor.

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where did the big plume come from? they said the leak on the vid is too small to have made it. are they wrong about that?

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Not verbatim, but...

They were saying that BP was trying to plug the end of the broken riser that was connected to the sunken rig, not to the BOP and wellhead. Personally, I've got to believe that BP knows where their wellhead is.

I also seem to remember them saying something to the effect of the "real" leak is 6 miles away and leaking 120,000 bpd. I have no idea what they're basing this on, aside from the current underwater plume size and location.

The well's been flowing for 5+ weeks. I would think it could generate a pretty impressive plume in that amount of time. I sure hope they're wrong in their estimation of the situation.