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3
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:08 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:09 pm to rds dc
Recon back in Zeta, center is still elongated and displaced north of the deepest convection.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:10 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:11 pm to rds dc
Winds over 50.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:12 pm to rds dc
quote:
Another model battle setting up with the 12z GFS taking a strong TS or weak hurricane MS/AL and the Euro taking a slopfest into SE TX/SW LA.
Per tradition.
I think the weirdest model tic of the season, for me, is I'm staning the new GFS ensembles over the Euro ensembles. The lack of strengthening with the Euro has made the 50 something members pretty undispersive.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:26 pm to Duke
quote:
Per tradition.
I think the weirdest model tic of the season, for me, is I'm staning the new GFS ensembles over the Euro ensembles. The lack of strengthening with the Euro has made the 50 something members pretty undispersive.
I'm not sure it matters much because, either way, this thing will be racing once it nears landfall. I'm more concerned about the 1st part of November as the overall background pattern might be more conducive to a stronger system in the Gulf vs. now. Climo would strongly suggest a Florida threat.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
I'm not sure it matters much because, either way, this thing will be racing once it nears landfall.
Doesn't matter so much here since the turn is obvious. Just that it's weird how I'm now thinking I need to check the GEFS to see the more realistic spread.
quote:
I'm more concerned about the 1st part of November as the overall background pattern might be more conducive to a stronger system in the Gulf vs. now.
I seent it too. Ugh. I'm tired man. Is this what the WPac feels like?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:11 pm to rds dc
2020 wouldn't be complete without mother nature sending a nice middle finger to florida laughing saying haha did you think we forgot about you?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:12 pm to deuce985
am i just that hungover or is the icon putting it smack over nola now
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:14 pm to rds dc
Based on recon, the LLC appears to be trying to consolidate back to the SE closer to the deeper convection. It's still elongated but the pressure is lower on the SE end.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:20 pm to Duke
The longer this thing dicks around in the WCab the farther east it goes I’m assuming
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:35 pm to Cosmo
quote:
The longer this thing dicks around in the WCab the farther east it goes I’m assuming
Pretty much.
Still have a weaker west and stronger east thing but yeah, all things being equal later into the Gulf should put it more east by the end.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:03 pm to rds dc
Organization continues to improve as the center is starting to tighten up under the deeper convection.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:10 pm to rds dc
999 mb? Those are rookie numbers
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:17 pm to Cosmo
Still not buying a Wednesday afternoon landfall. It would have to haul arse to do that.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:21 pm to LSUlefty
Is it Nola's turn yet? Southwest LA is tired of getting thrashed.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:24 pm to rds dc
If it can tighten up quickly here it's got that hot water to work with down there. That shear should abate as the ridge builds in east too.
Well funny thing, it's going to be hauling arse by Wednesday.
quote:
Still not buying a Wednesday afternoon landfall. It would have to haul arse to do that.
Well funny thing, it's going to be hauling arse by Wednesday.
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:24 pm to Cosmo
Recon pinned 997, pretty good drop from 1003 for what was a poorly organized storm when recon showed up.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:42 pm to rds dc
Levi just dropped a gangsta new music video
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