re: Zeta - The cleanup begins

LC OUT OF THE CONE

Thanks, Duke. This is some high-level, advanced analytics info that should be a lecture to a class in Meteorology.

I am definitely more smart now than I was before I read your info here.

Cheers to you, Big Kahuna.

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Yet. They're not in the cone YET.

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My guess is that Lake Charles will be in the cone by Tuesday night. My guess is based on my gut feeling that 2020 is not finished fricking Lake Charles.

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My guess is based on my gut feeling that 2020 is not finished fricking Lake Charles.

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BINGO

That seems unlikely

Ooh nice, I’m in the eastern wall now.

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That seems unlikely

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It is almost the same path Delta took across the Yucatan. Maybe a bit further south. Delta barely felt that landfall.

Different storm now, of course.

Recon not very impressive as most of the deep convection is displaced to the south of the center.

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Euro has been west all year overdoing ridges

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Euro actually did pretty good with Delta but it was never an extreme outlier like with Laura.

With Zeta, the Euro is slower with the trough coming in from the west and keeps Zeta weaker. This allows for the lower level flow to steer the system farther west before it finally gets picked up by the incoming trough. The GFS is faster with the trough and has a deeper system. This allows for the system feel the mid-level flow sooner and turn NE. The NHC currently favors the GFS solution.

12z GFS 500mb chart for 00z Wednesday (mid-level steering) shows the trough moving into West Texas and a decent 500mb signature for Zeta. This means that system is deep enough to feel the flow around the 500mb trough which steers the system NE as it approaches landfall.



00z Euro 500mb chart for the same time with a slower trough and not much of a mid-level signature for Zeta. This means the system is shallow and will typically be steered more by the lower levels.



850mb chart shows the flow pushing a weak system into SW LA before the trough eventually picks it up.

Another model battle setting up with the 12z GFS taking a strong TS or weak hurricane MS/AL and the Euro taking a slopfest into SE TX/SW LA.