re: Winter Storm Leon Updates - No More OP Updates..

So what were these models saying at this time last Wednesday about Friday ?

NWS now saying 1 to 3 inches of snow Tuesday night in BR. So that means 6 inches.

Of snow..

I'm saying they always under-predict the amount of winter precip in south La.

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quote: The 00z NAM continues the trend of slowing down the energy that causes the storm. 00z GFS does the same after showing a more progressive look at 18z. Still a big hit for Baton Rouge down to New Orleans but looks like things will really back off for CENLA. Once again, temp profiles will make the difference b/w ice storm or sleet / snow.

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Does this mean that the Baton Rouge area won't get as much as previously thought??

No baton rouge still gets hammered, still hard to say if its going to be all sleet, sleet/snow mix, or mostly snow. But here is the latest gfs run showing total accumulation for us. Shows at least 1.5in This is shaping up to be potentially very devastating if all or mostly ice.

It's going to be in the low low 20s Tuesday night. That'll be snow

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*Winter Storm Watch has been issued for entire WAFB viewing area from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.*

Monday will be a changing weather day as a cold front moves through the area. Things will start out mild with temperatures in the upper 50°s. Temperatures will then steadily fall during the afternoon. Sct’d to numerous rain showers will occur off and on Monday morning and afternoon. A lull in precipitation looks to occur late Monday into early Tuesday. Late Tuesday morning, wintry precipitation in the form of freezing rain and sleet look to impact South Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi. Temperatures will not make it above freezing Tuesday meaning we will have issues on area roadways again especially for the evening commute Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Precipitation will transition to snow by late afternoon Tuesday and continue off and on into early Wednesday morning. Accumulation totals look to average around one to two inches with the highest totals expected south of Baton Rouge closer to New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. Finally things will dry out by late morning Wednesday. Then a rapid warm up occurs as we move into next weekend. - Jeff Morrow / WAFB Storm Team

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LINK

sounds like the perfect setup to be out of school Tuesday and Wednesday

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My commute from Gonzales will not be fun

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I take it you will being making that commute regardless of the weather?

Are schools gonna start cutting into holiday breaks to make up for this?

In Baton Rouge maybe. But not Nola or the north shore in my opinion. I still think everyone on the north shore and south shore is setting themselves up for disappointment if they actually expecting snow. Maybe sleet, but snow. I doubt it. I don't know. I am one of the ones who have a wait and see approach. I have to see it to believe it.