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Started By
Message
re: What are the odds of seeing a face card on the flop in Tx Holdem?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:18 pm to mdomingue
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:18 pm to mdomingue
quote:
are completely different questions. The flop in Texas holdem is never drawn from a full regulation deck and is improbable, with a large number of players, to contain the entire complement of face cards, though it is possible.
If we assume we keep about the same ratio of Face to Regular cards, on the other hand, we get 10 (rounded up from 9.7 cards) face cards to 42 overall.
In that scenario, using the method Grape Nutz used, your odds go up to 56.8%.
If you would postulate 5 player, each without a face card, then you begin with 12 face cards in a total of 42 overall cards.
In that scenario, using the method Grape Nutz used, your odds go up to 64.6%.
This is total nonsense since you have no information about those other cards other than your own.
0
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:18 pm to Jyrdis
quote:
You eliminated important information, since that info affects the odds of a face card flop. How many people are playing? What happens if all of them receive a face card? If you're playing Texas hold'em, these would be the probabilities I'd start with then go from there.
It doesn't matter how many people are playing.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:20 pm to mdomingue
quote:
You should change the name of the thread because this
quote:
quote:
What are the odds of seeing a face card on the flop in Tx Holdem?
and thisquote:
quote:
Basically I'm asking if we were to select any random three cards from a regulation deck, what are the chances a face card will appear?
are completely different questions.
No they aren't.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:47 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:quote:
You should change the name of the thread because this
quote:
What are the odds of seeing a face card on the flop in Tx Holdem?
and thisquote:
Basically I'm asking if we were to select any random three cards from a regulation deck, what are the chances a face card will appear?
are completely different questions.
No they aren't.
Yeah, I figured that out after I reread the OP. I was thinking in terms of watching on TV where you know the value of the hole cards after they're dealt and are dealing the flop out of the remaining card. The OP clearly stated his scenario but I missed it. I've been on roll with that today.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 5:07 pm to mdomingue
Posted on 8/12/17 at 5:30 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
The odds of one card NOT being a face card is 40/52.
The odds of none of three cards NOT being a face card is (40/52) x (40/52) x (40/52) = .4551
Do those odds change after you flip 1 card? Assuming it is not a face card are the odds for card 2 then 39/51 and after card 2 is know is it not 38/50? I am asking, since I've managed to butcher most of what I've posted today
Posted on 8/12/17 at 5:51 pm to mdomingue
In poker, all three cards are flopped at basically the same time.
But yes, if it was one at a time, the odds change as you get more information.
But yes, if it was one at a time, the odds change as you get more information.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 5:52 pm to deuceiswild
23% by numbers, but in practice it feels higher.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 5:53 pm to Napoleon
Show your work.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 6:33 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:Thanks
But yes, if it was one at a time, the odds change as you get more information.
quote:
In poker, all three cards are flopped at basically the same time.
Thought about that after I posted. On a roll
Posted on 8/12/17 at 6:33 pm to Napoleon
The odds of something happening is the same 1 minus the odds of that same thing NOT happening.
In this case:
1 - (The odds of something happening)^number of occurances\
1 - (40/52)^3
1- .4551 = .5549
.5549 x 100 = 55.49%
In this case:
1 - (The odds of something happening)^number of occurances\
1 - (40/52)^3
1- .4551 = .5549
.5549 x 100 = 55.49%
Posted on 8/12/17 at 6:56 pm to deuceiswild
How many players are playing?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 6:57 pm to Pectus
quote:
How many players are playing?
ETA: It doesn't matter the number of players.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 7:01 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 7:22 pm to KosmoCramer
Does the flop come before or after the two cards are dealt to each player?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 7:43 pm to Pectus
After, eveything kosmo has said is correct
Posted on 8/12/17 at 7:57 pm to deuceiswild
People always wanting to play the race card. Sick of seeing threads about it on here.
Am I right?
Wait for it...
Just kidding.
Am I right?
Wait for it...
Just kidding.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 8:00 pm to dj30
I guess so...
Posted on 8/12/17 at 8:09 pm to deuceiswild
54% chance of a face on the flop, without knowing of cards in the hands.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:18 pm to Pectus
quote:
Does the flop come before or after the two cards are dealt to each player?
No. But it doesn't really matter.
Only your hole cards become part of the equation pre-flop.
If you deal out 49 cards, the remaining three cards still have the same odds as if you deal the first three for the flop.
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