US oil exports hit record in April; Could hit another record in May

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U.S. crude exports are projected to reach a record high 5.2M bbl/day in May, as Asian buyers snap up cargoes to offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply due to the Iran war, oil research firm Kpler said this week in the Financial Times.

Crude shipments for April are already edging toward 4.9M bbl/day based on current loadings and likely will jump to 5.2M bbl/day this month, up from more than 3.9M in March, and demand from Asian customers could climb by 82% to 2.5M bbl/day, Kpler said.

"An armada of tankers is heading this way," Kpler said, pointing to 68 empty tankers on their way to the U.S., compared with 24 in the week before the war began on February 28; last year, the average was 27 tankers.

The conflict has left Asia particularly vulnerable to disruption because ~80% of oil and petroleum products transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 were destined for China and its neighbors.

The export surge shows the growing U.S. role as a global swing supplier, but the competitionfrom Asia could further push up prices for American motorists, deepening fears of a new bout of inflation triggered by the war.

Although an announced release of more than 170M barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will help replenish commercial inventories, domestic production is not increasing fast enough to help, Kpler said.

Releases from the SPR also are limited to 1M-1.5M bbl/day, Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said; the U.S. consumes ~20M bbl/day, and the war has shut 10M-15M bbl/day of supply from the Persian Gulf.

Rising U.S. fuel prices have already sparked calls for a ban on oil exports from some politicians, a move the Trump administration so far has ruled out, which analysts say would trap some petroleum products in the U.S. and cause refiners to cut production.

But the White House could change its mind if the Middle East disruptions continue to push up fuel costs as the November midterm elections draw near.

"We believe Trump administration officials appreciate the possible unintended consequences of export controls for the refining sector. But a bad idea rejected at $4/gal might get a second look at $6/gal," ClearView Energy Partners analyst Kevin Book told Financial Times.

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