re: Tell me if my thoughts on roulette are incorrect

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It hit Black 16 times in a row and I lost my arse.

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If you started with a modest $5 bet you would have dropped 325k.

I don't believe you.

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if black hits 10 times in a row, what is the probability that it will hit an 11th time in a row?

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I sort of tested this theory last weekend at Hard Rock in Biloxi, it is the same.

For chuckles and giggles, I played all the black numbers after long streak of red numbers winning. I placed a big .25 cent bet on all the black numbers. (They have robotic roulette.) Guess what, I lost because the next number was still red.

So it is always less than 50 winning percentage with the green spaces. Luckily, the green numbers of hell did not come out that day. But you can always hear that bet on splitting the 0’s or a corner bet.

I usually always play slots, but the tables have been calling my name ever since stepping into a casino. I find tables are much slower pace than slots, but I guess it can be more sociable where at least you can talk to the person next to you and not be freaked out by it.

The whole first page is embarrassing. People say he's wrong, but offer their own poor strategies instead. I assume the other 7 after that are much the same.

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if black hits 10 times in a row, what is the probability that it will hit an 11th time in a row?

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There was an interesting scenario in The Black Swan Book (it can't remember if it was a hypothetical or not), that goes something like this.

He presents the following scenario a mathematician or statistician and to some street smartX blue collar guy.

A coin is flipped 50 times, and lands on heads each time. Which side has a better opportunity of landing in the next flip?

Statistician Neither, it's 50//50 each time.

Street Smart Guy Heads.

And who is right in this scenario scenario? The street Smart guy, because he was aware of the probability but also recognized that 50 heads in a row had such a low probability, that the coin was probably rigged to land on heads.

The scenario is much better in the book, but makes it an interesting point about reevaluating our priors (I think it may have been about bayesian statistics) regarding things we believe are random and follow a certain set a rules.

That was was probably pointless, and definitely irrelevant but o well.

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If you played $5 on the same number for 36 times($180/5=36 hands you can play) you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back.

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Your probability doesn't change with repetition. There aren't finite number of "4"s for example. Your chance to win, if betting a single space, is the same, spin to spin. The lower the probability, the less value get from multiple spins. And the house doesn't have to do anything to win - players just have to lose more than they win (collectively).

And the house always wins in the end.

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That’s what I’m asking. Tell me how the probability is wrong.

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Assuming you are betting on one number - there are 38 possible outcomes on each spin. That does NOT mean that if you spin 38 times, every number hits one time. What it means is every time you spin, you have a 1 in 38 chance of hitting your number.

Same thing as flipping a coin. 50-50 chance of heads or tails on each spin. That does not mean that if you flip ten times, you'll get five heads and five tails. You might, but you might not.