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re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley

Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:13 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14312 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:13 pm to
The rain is comin'...

Posted by Mr Perfect
Member since Mar 2010
17836 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:15 pm to
geeze dude this starting earlier than we thought
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:17 pm to
Looks like zero drops falling.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21548 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:34 pm to
Not much change on the 12z models and there is pretty good agreement that we will see a somewhat steady state system up to landfall.

12z Euro shifted the axis of heaviest rainfall east a bit.



The pulsing convective pattern around the LLC is what we would expect with the dry air wrapped into the circulation. We should see some deeper burst of convection later tonight into tomorrow and that is where the highest wind gust and locally heavy rain will be located.

Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:40 pm to
Is there any chance that the storm could block off that dry air?
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:40 pm to
Looks like this thing is moving a lot faster than the models are showing. Can we be looking at a landfall tonight or early tomorrow morning?
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
40308 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

Is there any chance that the storm could block off that dry air?


Yes. And potentially tighten/deepen
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

Is there any chance that the storm could block off that dry air?


I think it will, but too late to make much of it. Circulation too large to tighten up quickly.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:55 pm to
5 downvotes. Looks like I pissed off the wishcasters that want this thing to strengthen
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15770 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 1:59 pm to
this storm looks awful right now, getting ripped hard by winds
Posted by kojak
Member since Apr 2020
531 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:04 pm to
Nah, its really not moving that fast, models make it look faster, go look at the radar and youll see it creeping slow as shite.

Some rain tonight and tomorrow. Outer bands look like they will be dissipating once they hit land.

Nothing burger and im a little disappointed.
This post was edited on 6/6/20 at 2:05 pm
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
40308 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Looks like I pissed off the wishcasters that want this thing to strengthen


No, you're just wrong
Posted by Mr Perfect
Member since Mar 2010
17836 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:07 pm to
stop lying dude. outer bands are hitting Nola right now. rain coming down hard
This post was edited on 6/6/20 at 2:07 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

Nothing burger and im a little disappointed.


What were you expecting?

Max wind forecasted at 60 for a June TS, gusts above 40 are seeing something with a storm like this.
Posted by BananaManCan
Member since Sep 2009
4353 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

Nah, its really not moving that fast, models make it look faster, go look at the radar and youll see it creeping slow as shite.

Some rain tonight and tomorrow. Outer bands look like they will be dissipating once they hit land.

Nothing burger and im a little disappointed


Meet me at sonic frick face.
Posted by kojak
Member since Apr 2020
531 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:14 pm to
Well i kind of wanted another katrina

But i knew this wasnt it.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50806 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Max wind forecasted at 60 for a June TS, gusts above 40 are seeing something with a storm like this.


We’re both in Ascension Parish I believe — what is your opinion on what we can expect here wind & rain wise? The official forecast shows sustained wind around 30 with gusts to 50-55. I just don’t see that happening here.
This post was edited on 6/6/20 at 2:16 pm
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:15 pm to
Yeah we’re getting some nice size bands rolling through. Landfall will be much sooner than they are predicting

I’m saying early Sunday morning landfall
This post was edited on 6/6/20 at 2:16 pm
Posted by kojak
Member since Apr 2020
531 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:17 pm to
It'll be gone in 10 minutes.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

We’re both in Ascension Parish I believe


Never updated my location. I'm in New Orleans.

quote:

what is your opinion on what we can expect here wind & rain wise?


Depends on how far east it goes. Figure 1-4" of rain and gusts 30-40 in showers. Not easy to nail down for a location, especially on the west side.

Also, you're likely going to get more if you're down in St. Amant vs Prairieville.
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