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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:27 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:27 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
So if it's going to lake Charles now it's definitely hitting NOLA then
2
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:28 pm to TigerstuckinMS
If this makes it all the way to Texas then I am officially done with the GFS. I haven't seen a model with so many solutions in such a long time. It has to have been right at some point is about the only positive thing I can say about it.
I do find it interesting and scary how strong that ridge is but I find the strength to be very suspect and since it is going back and forth so much I can't put too much stock into the GFS at this point.
I do find it interesting and scary how strong that ridge is but I find the strength to be very suspect and since it is going back and forth so much I can't put too much stock into the GFS at this point.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
That forecast makes sense since the GFS is keeping it as a very weak system. Strengthening should/would start a more NW and N track through the ridge, right?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:28 pm to Chad504boy
there's no way this thing is cruising almost due west throughout its entire life, through the Bahamas and through the Gulf and staying as a weak TS.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
8/31 180 hour forecast doesn't look very good.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:29 pm to slackster
James Spann hit the nail on the head. This thing is way to far out and I understand everyone affected by the flooding is in a panic mode. But this thing has to get to FLA 1st. When it gets to FLA we will have a better idea on what we are dealing with. I for one am getting ready for something bad here.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:29 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
This MFer.
192 hours out is about as useless as it gets though.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:30 pm to dukke v
quote:
James Spann hit the nail on the head. This thing is way to far out and I understand everyone affected by the flooding is in a panic mode. But this thing has to get to FLA 1st. When it gets to FLA we will have a better idea on what we are dealing with. I for one am getting ready for something bad here.
sound the all clear
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:30 pm to Chad504boy
Full GFS through landfall
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
So are you CajunWX on Gulfcoastwx or are you copying his posts? 
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:32 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
So are you CajunWX on Gulfcoastwx or are you copying his posts?
Yep
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
I know this is way too early to even be close to accurate, but if it were to make landfall here, it will put us on the rain side, right?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
So this run has beaumont as the landing point... Very interesting to see this shift so far west from the other models
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:33 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
That forecast makes sense since the GFS is keeping it as a very weak system. Strengthening should/would start a more NW and N track through the ridge, right?
Not always. Depends on how stacked the cyclone is and how high the ridge goes into the atmosphere. But that could be in play here, for sure.
quote:
there's no way this thing is cruising almost due west throughout its entire life, through the Bahamas and through the Gulf and staying as a weak TS.
There is a way if the ridge is as strong as the GFS shows.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
Isn't 1009mb like a minimal tropical storm? Regardless we really don't need another 20" of rain.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:35 pm to jaTigerfan
quote:
Isn't 1009mb like a minimal tropical storm? Regardless we really don't need another 20" of rain.
Basically, i don't see this thing going through the GOM without strengthening though.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:35 pm to jaTigerfan
If that turns out to be the track, I can see the return of many sets of truck nuts.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:35 pm to BigB0882
quote:
There is a way if the ridge is as strong as the GFS shows.
water temps near Miami are 88 degrees. i'm sure the gulf is similar.
no way it takes the scenic route through the gulf and stays a weak TS.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:38 pm to MSCoastTigerGirl
quote:
I know this is way too early to even be close to accurate, but if it were to make landfall here, it will put us on the rain side, right?
The top right quadrant is the area with the most amount of rain usually. So if it goes anywhere near laffy, we'll get a lot of rain
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'm fairly certain I've read that model trends can be useful in forecasting the long range path of these storms, but the long range intensity forecasts from these models are nearly useless. Correct?
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