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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:16 pm to slackster
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:16 pm to slackster
quote:
I tried explaining it this way yesterday and someone accurately pointed out that the actual local time in Greenwich, England is 6 hours ahead of CDT, but that is because Greenwich now uses a different timezone. Up until 1972 it used GMT (or UTC or Z).
Is it because GMT uses daylight savings but Zulu time is Zulu time?
2
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:17 pm to lsuman25
quote:
It's the Canadian Model
Aren't the Canadians crazy?
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:20 pm to fatboydave
quote:
Aren't the Canadians crazy?
It's aboot to hit Texas, eh?
ETA: For our Quebecians- "Il est sur le point de frapper le Texas, huhuh?"
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:27 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
Is it because GMT uses daylight savings but Zulu time is Zulu time?
Yes, I believe so. If you need a standard time, daylight savings really throws things off. UTC is standard year round.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:41 pm to bwm14
quote:
What's the best guess on when the Florida Panhandle will be clear of this? Have a beach trip Labor Day weekend and might try to move things if we will just be sitting in rain or a hurricane.
At this point I think it's going somewhere between Lake Charles and Panama City, FL.
But the good Dr Masters has his new blog out, and says
quote:
Outlook for 99L this weekend and beyond
The 00Z Friday ensemble of the GFS and ECMWF are in general agreement that 99L will continue moving west-northwest on a track that would put it somewhere in or near the Florida Keys around Sunday. None of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members bring 99L up to tropical storm strength before that point, while the HWRF--overall the best-performing intensity model of recent years--is an outlier, calling for 99L to reach tropical storm strength by Sunday. If 99L does organize today, we'll be looking closely at the next couple of rounds of models to see if any major changes occur. In any event, this morning’s burst of convection reminds us that 99L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to southern Florida over the weekend.
There remains plenty of uncertainty over 99L’s future beyond the weekend. The operational GFS and ECMWF model runs from 0Z Friday take 99L northward through the eastern Gulf and into the upper Gulf Coast of Florida. A minority of GFS ensemble members bring 99L further west, while the four ECMWF ensemble members that make up the “high probability cluster” (those that have performed the best on 99L over the last 24 hours) keep the system moving northward, very close to Florida’s west coast, as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. The HWRF and UKMET are more aggressive on intensifying 99L further west in the open Gulf, where there would be less interaction with land. We can expect models to get a better handle on 99L if and when it develops a coherent circulation.
The bottom line: 99L remains a system well worth monitoring as it makes its way into south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
Weather Underground
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:46 pm to NYNolaguy1
Don't let your guard down yet... Some of the models I'm seeing are calling for another storm to launch off from Africa in ~108 hours. So, even if 99L dissipates (Please, God, make it so), stay vigilant... Gonna be a busy few weeks, apparently.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:48 pm to Fatty Magoo
Should we get updated projections within the hour?
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:49 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
At this point I think it's going somewhere between Lake Charles and Panama City, FL.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:57 pm to halleburton
You won't get them from me... I know how unreliable the models are. But both the ones I follow are showing this next storm popping off in a few days. Just wanted to remind everyone to keep their guard up.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:58 pm to Fatty Magoo
FWIW - HWRF has been consistent in calling for a Cat3/4 in the NE Gulf. Heading toward Pensacola / Ft. Walton on Wednesday on this run. I don't wish something like that on anyone but that would keep rainfall away from LA.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:59 pm to medtiger
quote:
From another site:
quote:
The difference between the GFS / Euro track up coast of Florida and the Canadian / UKMET track is an upper level low that's supposed to move in near the Carolinas. The GFS / Euro have 99L being dragged northward by this ULL, the UKMET and CMC do not interact with it at all. Considering the consistency of the GFS on this track and intensity (and the Euro's general agreement on track) it makes sense to bet on a more eastward track.
How do you feel about this statement and the chances that the GFS and Euro are actually getting this right?
I posted this image earlier this morning concerning this:
It doesn't show up in the freely available data but the ULL in question originates from an upper through off the NE. It then drifts to the SW and ends up over Coastal Carolina. That process helps to develop a weakness in the ridge - red circle. I've mentioned before that the upper level setup for this period is very complicated and the models still struggle with the movement and strength of upper level features.
Bay also chimed in and mentioned that a center relocation or consolidation of the NE of what the models are showing could also get the system into that area.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 12:59 pm to medtiger
Deleted - Double post
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:00 pm to MountainTiger
Did somebody say it's Zulu time?
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:01 pm to HubbaBubba
Good news?
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:04 pm to CockyTime
Anything in the Gulf and its anyones ball game
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:04 pm to CockyTime
It's definitely better news but just remain vigilant once the system is near the Florida Keys/ Straits of Florida fixin to get in the Gulf then i think that is when we will see models really lock down on the final track.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:07 pm to lsuman25
quote:when is this supposed to happen?
once the system is near the Florida Keys/ Straits of Florida
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:07 pm to rds dc
looks like the euro develops the low way south on this run if looking at it correctly
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:08 pm to Fatty Magoo
I just meant an updated model run... Not a personal projection.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:08 pm to Chicken
going by the models looks like late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning
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