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Posted on 9/29/16 at 7:38 am to ForeverLSU02
The sale of vacuum pack machines and bags are about to sky rocket in Jamaica.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 7:45 am to otowntiger
quote:
Due to its remarkable consistency for a while now, I believe the GFS will be right and this thing
It looks the overnight runs of the GFS trended towards the Euro in the short term with a bit slower movement and later turn north but the Euro trended towards the GFS in the medium range. Both models now have this near the eastern tip of Cuba Tuesday night. Also, the 00z Euro EPS had a really nice eastward shift and went from over 1/2 of the members in the Gulf to just over a 1/3 of the members in the Gulf with only one member hitting Louisiana.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 8:29 am to rds dc
quote:Yep, eastward ho, here we go!! Looks like shear is much stronger than expected too. Pretty typical of these last few seasons. I'm beginning to think that global warming is somehow having the opposite effect that everyone thought it would on tropical storm development (I've heard/read that elsewhere - not an original thought by me). Matthew could just as likely stay weak as it is to grow stronger.
00z Euro EPS had a really nice eastward shift and went from over 1/2 of the members in the Gulf to just over a 1/3 of the members in the Gulf with only one member hitting Louisiana.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 8:43 am to otowntiger
quote:
Yep, eastward ho, here we go!! Looks like shear is much stronger than expected too. Pretty typical of these last few seasons. I'm beginning to think that global warming is somehow having the opposite effect that everyone thought it would on tropical storm development (I've heard/read that elsewhere - not an original thought by me). Matthew could just as likely stay weak as it is to grow stronger.
It is on the verge of decoupling and recon shows that pressure has gone up a bit this morning.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:00 am to rds dc
How long is this shear supposed to keep up, and does it move further west if it stays weaker?
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:09 am to rds dc
Any new updates? Im supposed to be in the bahamas sunday morning, then st thomas/st martin on tuesday/wed. Would those be in its path?
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:46 am to rds dc
12z GFS trends westward early and ends up west overall with landfall in NC. Then moves up the coast.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:50 am to SohCahToa
quote:
How long is this shear supposed to keep up, and does it move further west if it stays weaker?
Shear is stronger than expected this morning but shear was forecast to be an issue over the next day or so. It is supposed to relax near the time the system turns north. I'm not sure what, if any, change this will have on the future track. The forecast is for a pretty significant upper level trough across the Gulf that helps turn this north.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 12:46 pm to rds dc
looks like it just became a hurricane
Posted on 9/29/16 at 1:18 pm to Ellis Dee
LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
Wow, down to 993mb already, he is really getting its act together.
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
Wow, down to 993mb already, he is really getting its act together.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 1:26 pm to doubleb
someone down the line is gonna get a dangerous storm out of this pretty impressive it continues to strengthen in a place where systems struggle mightily.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 1:42 pm to rds dc
What's it saying?
Posted on 9/29/16 at 1:49 pm to ForeverLSU02
pretty significant west shift still running so no idea where it will take it in the end next frame looks like its gonna go out to sea but it gets uncomfortably close to the southeast coast
This post was edited on 9/29/16 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 9/29/16 at 1:55 pm to rds dc
gonna be interesting to see the Euro ensembles after this run
Posted on 9/29/16 at 1:57 pm to lsuman25
Can you post a pic of the latest Euro? I can't access it from my phone for some reason
Posted on 9/29/16 at 2:01 pm to ForeverLSU02
Tropical Tidbits
Once you click on the link click on forecast models. Then click on global models select ECMFW. Then use the arrow keys at the top to move it forward in time.
Once you click on the link click on forecast models. Then click on global models select ECMFW. Then use the arrow keys at the top to move it forward in time.
This post was edited on 9/29/16 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 9/29/16 at 2:04 pm to lsuman25
I hope this helps
Posted on 9/29/16 at 2:08 pm to lsuman25
The ULL drops to the SW of the system and a ridge builds over the top. This turns it back to the NW about a week from now but the next trough is able to kick it back out before landfall.
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