re: Southern U.S. Severe Weather & Flooding: April 8-11, 2024

Long as it’s clear from Augusta ga by Friday

Synoptically speaking, the position of the surface low Wednesday into Thursday is just about classic for a Dixie Alley tornado outbreak. However, it looks like instability will be a lacking ingredient for such an outbreak.

They have a legit hailer West of Nashville. Hail spike and warned for ping pong balls.

I just want to know if it’s going to rain until Thursday. Getting old.

Well, that's dumb.

quote:

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west/central North Texas

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So is this like a 10,000 sq mile area?

Saw that nasty looking Hook on Radar as it was crossing East Central LA earlier. Looked pretty intense!

SPC AC 090557

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...EASTERN LA...AND SOUTHWEST AL...

...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are probable beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. These will include potential for both many tornadoes, some of which should be strong (EF2-EF3 caliber), and widespread damaging wind swaths with embedded significant severe gusts.

...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough over west TX at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave impulse should begin to phase with a northern-stream wave digging into the Upper Midwest, yielding a full-latitude amplified trough near the MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. This will result in substantial flow amplification through the troposphere, commencing by Wednesday morning as a surface cyclone gradually deepens northeastward from east TX towards the Lower OH Valley.

...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South... A swath of numerous to widespread severe storms appears increasingly likely on Wednesday morning to afternoon, highlighted within the level 3-4/ENH-MDT risks. A nocturnal tornado/wind threat should persist into Wednesday night across south AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.

An MCS is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday, with the southern portion potentially already producing severe wind and tornadoes. Guidance is more consistent with the indication of a plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity, emanating around the MCS from the northwest Gulf. A renewed surge of rich western Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just ahead of the morning activity across LA, yielding moderate buoyancy across convection-free areas of LA into south MS.

Convective intensity should diurnally increase through late morning/midday within already strong low-/deep-layer shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield potential for an intense QLCS spreading east-northeast into the afternoon. Embedded supercells, with a possibility for semi-discrete ones just ahead of the line along its southern flank, in addition to small-scale bowing segments will be conducive to tornadoes and damaging wind swaths. Primary uncertainty is just how far north-northeast this severe MCS will extend, as both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates with northeast extent and deep convection regenerating southwestward towards the larger buoyancy plume, may yield a relatively pronounced northern cutoff to the more widespread severe threat.

A tornado and severe wind threat should linger into Wednesday evening/night, at least along the northeast Gulf coast region, with regenerative offshore supercells moving inland. Guidance is consistent in suggesting further increases of low-level shear/hodograph curvature into the FL Panhandle vicinity through 12Z Thursday, supporting a nocturnal strong tornado risk.

...Ark-La-Tex/Ark-La-Miss to the TN Valley... A separate area of severe storms, primarily in the form of large hail initially, should develop along a portion of the Red River Valley near the Ark-La-Tex. This activity will be supported by a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the cold-core region of the mid-level low, and the northwest periphery of the residual Gulf low-level moisture plume that will likely be modified by the extensive MCS near the central Gulf Coast.

Guidance has shown more variability with timing the east and eventual northeast pivot of the mid-level low on Wednesday night, yielding uncertainty in how far northeast at least a low-probability severe threat will extend. There will be an attempt at overnight airmass recovery northward from the central Gulf Coast to the TN Valley in the wake of the large early-day MCS. Low-level shear profiles will be supportive of rotating storms into early Wednesday, with lower-probability tornado/wind threats.

..Grams.. 04/09/2024

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