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Started By
Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:23 pm to Hangover Haven
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:23 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
They were totally off for the surge prediction with Laura...
They weren't it was just east of Cameron. Creole and Grand Chenier got around the advertised 15'.
3
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:24 pm to Duke
UNSURVIVABLE
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:25 pm to LaBR4
Look at how little the center of the system moves in the 24 hours between 8 AM Tuesday and 8 AM Wednesday. My best estimate is it only moves about 70-75 miles in 24 hours...or about 3 mph forward speed. 
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:25 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
Wasn't Juan the first storm to flood the Lakefront airport..?
Yes it was and it was the first to flood most of Mandeville from Hwy 190 South.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:25 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
They were totally off for the surge prediction with Laura...
If they say 8-12', my guess it will be more like 5-8 feet...
wasn't a 17 ft storm surge recorded a bit to the east of LC in Laura?
pretty sure I heard the storm surge forecast verified
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:29 pm to Hangover Haven
4-8 feet of surge possible into Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas
If I lived in LaPlace I would start my prep work today because those levels mean another round of bad house flooding in the neighborhoods who took it on the chin last time.
If I lived in LaPlace I would start my prep work today because those levels mean another round of bad house flooding in the neighborhoods who took it on the chin last time.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:31 pm to Hangover Haven
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/18/21 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:32 pm to rt3
Still moving due west. Sally needs to turn WNW soon to keep NO from the heaviest rain fall.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:33 pm to MrLSU
quote:.
Does anyone here remember Hurricane Juan in 85 because that was one of the worst storm surges to hit the area between Camille and Katrina. It sat offshore just like this was is projected to do. I was stranded in a house on the water in Venetian Isles for a week and water was up 8 ft making Lake Pontchartrain, Borgne, and the Gulf one massive body of water.
Yes. I watched the storm surge come across the back pasture in Bayou Dularge @ my FIL’s house. We had three feet in a raised house within 30 minutes.
Juan went out then came back once or twice. The shrimp boats from down the bayou tied up in front of my house. We all ate very good.
The fishing was fantastic afterwards.We loaded up in Lake Decade between the two passes the storm made at us.
I was also shooting rabbits with my .22 pistol out of the cirier’ bushes. My lab would jump out of the mud boat and retrieve them.
I lived up the bayou and didn’t flood.
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:35 pm to LSURussian
And that thing shifting 50 miles would make a huge difference on devastating impacts too.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:36 pm to Duke
One thing to note, by Tuesday shear picks up a little bit with westerlies increasing north of 500 mb. The NHC has noted it and it is showing up on even the HWRF.
A well developed inner core can fight that off for a little bit of time but this hopefully will be enough to take a little strength out by around landfall. If the core struggles to develop longer and isn't as mature by Tuesday morning, the greater the effect.
A well developed inner core can fight that off for a little bit of time but this hopefully will be enough to take a little strength out by around landfall. If the core struggles to develop longer and isn't as mature by Tuesday morning, the greater the effect.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:38 pm to Duke
quote:
They weren't it was just east of Cameron. Creole and Grand Chenier got around the advertised 15'.
Didn’t they predict a 25’ surge?
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:39 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
Did t they predict a 25’ surge?
15-20' IIRC.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:40 pm to Hangover Haven
15-20. Grand Chenier/Rockefeller got it
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:40 pm to lsuman25
quote:
4-8 feet of surge possible into Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:42 pm to Duke
quote:
A well developed inner core can fight that off for a little bit of time but this hopefully will be enough to take a little strength out by around landfall. If the core struggles to develop longer and isn't as mature by Tuesday morning, the greater the effect.
This would be awesome...
Pull another Marco..
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:43 pm to tiger91
quote:
CE from the engineering side?
Yea. Been here since Wednesday before the storm . Been some long nights and hard days but things are coming together.
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:44 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
This would be awesome...
Pull another Marco..
This isn't Marco shear, but it sure as frick can't hurt.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:51 pm to Duke
quote:
15-20' IIRC.
yeah 15-20 was forecast... and 17 was observed
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:58 pm to CE Tiger
Thank you for everything you and your crews have done! From sulphur/Carlyss!
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