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Started By
Message
re: powerball odds - help me win my argument - posted pg 8
Posted on 1/13/16 at 8:02 pm to tigersint
Posted on 1/13/16 at 8:02 pm to tigersint
quote:
Their argument :
That if you play the same numbers every week over the course of youur life, or for thousands of years then you will have greater odds of winning.
quote:
Can anyone give me a mathematical proof to disprover their theory.
1
Posted on 1/13/16 at 9:16 pm to torrey225
Well im in my last semester of engineering and I am not classified as "not knowing basic math." But thanks for your opinion.
I have given them many different examples and proofs that i can think of and they keep arguing, so just getting different ideas from you guys to explain it to them. Ill make a damn excell spreadsheet if i have to.
I have given them many different examples and proofs that i can think of and they keep arguing, so just getting different ideas from you guys to explain it to them. Ill make a damn excell spreadsheet if i have to.
This post was edited on 1/13/16 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 1/13/16 at 9:22 pm to tigersint
Their problem is that they're stupid.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 9:25 pm to tigersint
quote:Probability is not always intuitive, but THIS is not a complicated concept, especially given the examples provided.
I have given them many different examples and proofs that i can think of and they keep arguing, so just getting different ideas from you guys to explain it to them. Ill make a damn excell spreadsheet if i have to.
If they can't understand the relatively simple concepts of a random variable and independent events, then it's doubtful they would understand the much more complicated mathematical formulations of these concepts.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:41 pm to tigersint
I don't understand this...
But this is definitely wrong...
It makes absolutely no difference which combination you play or whether you play the same one every time or a random one every time.
quote:
Their reasoning :
If you roll 2 dice then your odds of winning are 1/36. By having a quick pick you are rolling another dice every week and must have both the "quick pick dice" hit and have the "powerball dice" hit. Theoretically giving you a 1/36 chance (in dice terms)
They claim that by playing your same numbers every week you eliminate one dice roll and therefore eliminate one variable,
But this is definitely wrong...
quote:
your odds over your lifetime of winning increase over time.
It makes absolutely no difference which combination you play or whether you play the same one every time or a random one every time.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:51 pm to tigersint
quote:
That if you play the same numbers every week over the course of youur life, or for thousands of years then you will have greater odds of winning.
Your friends are idiots. Ditch them, find some new ones.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 12:57 pm to tigersint
Your friends won't believe you because they are set on being stupid. Just refer them to a statistics professor or several. If they still don't believe it, then get new friends because they're hopeless in matters of the mind.
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:04 pm to tigersint
quote:
What is your opinion on this. Is there a strategy involved in playing the powerball to ever so slightly increase your odds?
I work in applied stats. Every powerball draw is independent therefore there is statistical relevance to past data.
If you won the lotto with a ticket 1-2-3-4-5-6
Your probability of winning the next lotto with 1-2-3-4-5-6 = to the probability of any other number set. That is given you already won
Posted on 1/15/16 at 1:09 pm to GenesChin
For example, give a fair coin example for flipping heads or tails.
The chances of having back to back heads is 25%, 50% of the first then 50% for the second (0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25)
Once your first flip happens and it is heads, the first 0.5 (50%) has occured and all that is left is the second 0.5. The second flip doesn't become more likely to be tails as it stays at the 50/50 shot H/T
The chances of having back to back heads is 25%, 50% of the first then 50% for the second (0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25)
Once your first flip happens and it is heads, the first 0.5 (50%) has occured and all that is left is the second 0.5. The second flip doesn't become more likely to be tails as it stays at the 50/50 shot H/T
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