Paging RDS and our other resident meteorologists

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DFW at Level 3 Elevated risk for Wednesday. Should be interesting.

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SPC AC 271741

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OK...NORTHERN/EASTERN TX...NORTHEAST LA...WESTERN/CENTRAL
AR...SOUTHWEST MO AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across parts of the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and
Midwest. Scattered large to very large hail, numerous severe wind
gusts (some greater than 65 kt), and a few tornadoes may occur.

...Synopsis...

A potent shortwave trough will deepen as it spreads southeast across
the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. Strong warm advection ahead
of surface low and associated cold front wil bring 60s surface
dewpoints northward across much of the southern Plains and portions
of the Ozarks. Further north near the surface low, tracking east
across IA during the afternoon, dewpoints will generally be in the
50s, though some low 60s F are possible. A plume of very steep
midlevel lapse rates will be in place across the southern Plains and
will aid in strong destabilization from OK/TX eastward toward the
Ozark Plateau. As ascent increases during the afternoon, initial
capping will quickly erode and vigorous thunderstorm development is
expected by late afternoon from southeast KS into northwest OK.
Additional storms will develop during the afternoon near the surface
low/triple point in IA and spread eastward toward southern
WI/northern IL.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity...

Wind profiles will remain rather veered further south from the
surface low over IA. However, supercells will initially be possible
early in storm evolution. Lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and MLCAPE
values increasing to greater than 2000 J/kg will support vigorous
updrafts capable of very large hail. Some guidance suggests a
secondary low may develop over northwest OK near a bulge in the
dryline. This could help to enhance low level SRH, and an increased
tornado threat with any cells that can maintain a semi-discrete
storm mode. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale into
one or more bowing segments as a low level jet develops during the
early evening and as frontal forcing increases as a cold front
develops southeastward across the southern Plains. Strong low level
windfield and steep low level lapse rates will result in significant
damaging wind potential across portions of the Enhanced risk.

...Mid-MS Valley...

Instability will be weaker than further south due to lower quality
boundary layer moisture. However, backed surface winds near the
surface low and eastward extending warm front will result in a
threat for a few tornadoes. Shear will support supercells capable of
large hail and damaging gusts. Strongest convection will likely
remain close the surface low and the warm frontal boundary as to low
shifts eastward through the evening hours, and strong storms could
persist into the evening hours across parts of northern IL before
diminishing toward Lake Michigan.

..Leitman.. 04/27/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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SPC AC 270730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
portions of coastal Texas into the Southeast.

...Coastal Texas into the Southeast...
A line of storms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning across
parts of coastal TX into southern LA ahead of a surface cold front.
A lingering strong/gusty wind threat may continue with this
convection before it moves offshore. Farther north, an upper low is
forecast to move from the MS Valley eastward while amplifying
through the period. A mid-level jet should gradually overspread
parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast through the day. At the
surface, a low should develop slowly eastward over the Great Lakes
region while gradually occluding. A cold front attendant to this low
is forecast to sweep eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast
on Wednesday, eventually reaching the vicinity of the East Coast by
the end of the period.

Depending on the location and intensity of the morning convection
across the lower MS Valley, there appears to be a window for at
least weak destabilization across parts of the Southeast ahead of
the cold front Wednesday afternoon. This potential appears
relatively greater across southern MS into southern/central AL, the
FL Panhandle, and parts of GA. Strengthening shear through the day
with the mid-level jet overspreading this region would support
organized storms. The main uncertainty precluding higher severe
probabilities for now is the amount of destabilization that may
occur. Regardless, at least an isolated severe risk for mainly large
hail and strong to locally damaging winds appears plausible. This
threat may continue eastward Wednesday evening and overnight
along/ahead of the cold front across parts of northern/central FL,
GA, and SC.

..Gleason.. 04/27/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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