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Started By
Message
re: Overnight Weather Thread - LA, MS, AL
Posted on 4/5/14 at 9:54 pm to geauxcats10
Posted on 4/5/14 at 9:54 pm to geauxcats10
quote:
Soo what's the weather gonna look like for Gonzales area tomorrow afternoon into night?
its hard to say what will happen at any given place, the risk for all modes of severe weather is there, but you can't tell what will happen in a specific city.. so i'll just say.. if you live in south la, ms, or alabama.. get your shite done before the afternoon and hope you don't get it.
This post was edited on 4/5/14 at 9:55 pm
1
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:09 pm to GEAUXmedic
This is a more interesting setup than Friday for sure. It looks like there will be a brief window for tornadoes after the warm front lifts out and before a line of storms pushes through. If some discrete cells can pop out ahead of the main line then there might be some issues.
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
This is a more interesting setup than Friday for sure. It looks like there will be a brief window for tornadoes after the warm front lifts out and before a line of storms pushes through. If some discrete cells can pop out ahead of the main line then there might be some issues.
The top analog for tomorrow is the nov 24th 2004 outbreak.
Posted on 4/5/14 at 11:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
They're saying between 4p & 8p tomorrow is our best chance for severe weather.
Posted on 4/5/14 at 11:16 pm to CWilken21
quote:
They're saying between 4p & 8p tomorrow is our best chance for severe weather.
probably, who are "they"?
Posted on 4/6/14 at 1:12 am to GEAUXmedic
Alright.. long post.. but it's important to know..
latest outlook came out, I'll post the important parts, and explain a little.
Sunday Afternoon
The bolded part explains it.. Damaging winds and Tornadoes possible during the afternoon for southern LA, southeastern MS, and southwestern AL.
Sunday Night into Monday
There is support for after dark tornadoes throughout the aforementioned area (LA/MS/AL) between 7 pm tomorrow and 7 am monday. The hodograph, which is a diagram used to show a graphic depiction of features that all come together to show the conditions for the production of severe weather, has a hook shape, which shows supercell formation, or "severe thunderstorms". After looking at the models this "hook shape" is shown throughout South LA, MS, and AL.
This is the Tornado probability for Sunday
The yellow area marked "SIG" shows a possibility for significant (EF-2 or above) tornadoes.
What you can take away from this..
LA/MS/AL has a threat of tornadoes and damaging winds starting tomorrow afternoon. The threat will increase tomorrow evening, through overnight into Monday morning with the possibility of significant tornadoes.
latest outlook came out, I'll post the important parts, and explain a little.
Sunday Afternoon
quote:
MEANWHILE...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS
SRN LA...SERN MS AND SWRN AL THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORCING ALOFT
SHOULD BE WEAK PRIOR TO 07/00Z...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
AREA WILL BE SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE STRENGTHENING SLY
LLJ. THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1
KM SRH AROUND 200 M2 PER S2/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE HAZARDS SHOULD TEND TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HAIL A LOWER PROBABILITY GIVEN WEAKER LAPSE RATES.
The bolded part explains it.. Damaging winds and Tornadoes possible during the afternoon for southern LA, southeastern MS, and southwestern AL.
Sunday Night into Monday
quote:
THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF HIGHER THETAE AIR WELL INLAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL SUPPORT AN AFTER-DARK TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...A FEW STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN LA...SRN MS AND SWRN AL FROM AROUND 07/00Z THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INFLUX OF RICH MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...INCREASING HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT INTO COLUMBUS AND TUPELO MS AFTER 06Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING/TONIGHT INTO AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
There is support for after dark tornadoes throughout the aforementioned area (LA/MS/AL) between 7 pm tomorrow and 7 am monday. The hodograph, which is a diagram used to show a graphic depiction of features that all come together to show the conditions for the production of severe weather, has a hook shape, which shows supercell formation, or "severe thunderstorms". After looking at the models this "hook shape" is shown throughout South LA, MS, and AL.
This is the Tornado probability for Sunday
The yellow area marked "SIG" shows a possibility for significant (EF-2 or above) tornadoes.
What you can take away from this..
LA/MS/AL has a threat of tornadoes and damaging winds starting tomorrow afternoon. The threat will increase tomorrow evening, through overnight into Monday morning with the possibility of significant tornadoes.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 2:25 am
Posted on 4/6/14 at 8:06 am to GEAUXmedic
New Day 1 is out with an expanded 10% hatch. The trickiest part of this setup will be the progression of the warm front and how fast the surface low deepens. It looks like the most significant tornado threat will be after dark, which sucks.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 8:26 am to rds dc
The Storm Prediction Centers short range ensemble model pops a significant tornado 75 contour at 10:00 pm today, that is really high. It actually has a small area of 90+ at 1:00 am (Sunday).
Posted on 4/6/14 at 9:27 am to rds dc
quote:
The Storm Prediction Centers short range ensemble model pops a significant tornado 75 contour at 10:00 pm today, that is really high. It actually has a small area of 90+ at 1:00 am (Sunday).
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:03 am to TDsngumbo
Check out the TOR:CON
For reference he gave MO and AR a 4-5 this past week.
quote:
Sunday, April 6
Thunderstorms with heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms in upper-coastal TX, south and east-central LA, south half MS, southwest AL, west FL panhandle, spreading overnight into east-central MS, west-central AL. TOR:CON - 5 southeast and east-central LA,southern MS; 4 west-central AL; 2 to 3 elsewhere. Enhanced risk of after-dark tornadoes.
For reference he gave MO and AR a 4-5 this past week.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:08 am to GEAUXmedic
Tor cons of 5 seem low for this.
I bet it goes up to a 7 later today.
April of 2011 had tor cons of 9+. I'm not sure they ever gave it a 10.
I bet it goes up to a 7 later today.
April of 2011 had tor cons of 9+. I'm not sure they ever gave it a 10.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:09 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Tor cons of 5 seem low for this.
not at all, a 6 would be extremely high, its rare..
a 5 is a good number for this event.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:11 am to BRgetthenet
quote:
You love some fuucking weather, don't you?
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:15 am to dukke v
significant tornado probability:
the middle circle is 75%
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 11:16 am
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:39 am to GEAUXmedic
Hatched area now posted with latest outlook...
STAY SAFE everyone!
STAY SAFE everyone!
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 11:44 am
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:40 am to East Coast Band
The Tor con index actually maxed out at 10 over North Alabama during the April 27, 2011 outbreak. It came close again when to went up to a 9 over parts of southern Indiana and Kentucky during the outbreak that produced the West Liberty, KY tornado a couple of years ago.
This setup is somewhat similar to the 3/1/2007 system as far as area affected although that one included a rare high risk over South AL and the FL panhandle. That was the system that produced the Enterprise, AL EF-4 tornado.
This setup is somewhat similar to the 3/1/2007 system as far as area affected although that one included a rare high risk over South AL and the FL panhandle. That was the system that produced the Enterprise, AL EF-4 tornado.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:43 am to Govt Tide
quote:
The Tor con index actually maxed out at 10 over North Alabama during the April 27, 2011 outbreak. It came close again when to went up to a 9 over parts of southern Indiana and Kentucky during the outbreak that produced the West Liberty, KY tornado a couple of years ago.
True, but relative to average, 6 is high.
quote:
This setup is somewhat similar to the 3/1/2007 system as far as area affected although that one included a rare high risk over South AL and the FL panhandle. That was the system that produced the Enterprise, AL EF-4 tornado.
The top analog for today is the November 24th, 2004 outbreak.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:54 am to GEAUXmedic
From the NWS Convective Outlook...
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM/COLD FRONTS WILL FOSTER INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SRN LA WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MS...AL
AND THE WRN FL PNHDL THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLOCATION OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW AND MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMA
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
FROM SERN LA THROUGH MS/AL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT
LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY
EF-2+/ AND WIND DAMAGE...NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
LINK
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM/COLD FRONTS WILL FOSTER INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SRN LA WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MS...AL
AND THE WRN FL PNHDL THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLOCATION OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW AND MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMA
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
FROM SERN LA THROUGH MS/AL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT
LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY
EF-2+/ AND WIND DAMAGE...NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
LINK
Posted on 4/6/14 at 1:09 pm to NorthEndZone
Getting pretty rough At 36,000 feet east of Dallas headed to New Orleans.
Just had flight Attendants take their seats. .
Just had flight Attendants take their seats. .
Posted on 4/6/14 at 1:13 pm to tigers win2
Reed Timmer's chasing in south Louisiana today.
quote:
Reed Timmer ?@reedtimmerTVN 4m
Targeting the I-10 corridor in southern Louisiana this afternoon/evening for tornadic supercells rolling off Gulf @tornadotours @tvnweather
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