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OT meteorologists/weather enthusiasts: outlook for Tuscaloosa?
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:29 pm
It seems that the forecast for Saturday took a slight turn for the worse with more consistent rainfall predicted throughout the entire day. I was wondering at what point in the week we will have a little more visibility/confidence in the models, etc. Figured this would be important for tailgating purposes and for any coaches that lurk this board.
9
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:30 pm to Lou Pai
Also important for the gamblers
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:30 pm to Lou Pai
Tuscoulusa looks shitty
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:32 pm to Lou Pai
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:35 pm to Sofa King Crimson
quote:
Long term...
Wednesday through Monday.
Unseasonably mild conditions will continue through Friday as a broad
upper ridge holds over the southern United States. Slightly deeper
moisture over Georgia and east Alabama may result in a few showers
for areas east of I-65 Wednesday and Thursday. A fairly strong
short wave trough will push into the plains states on Thursday. The
strength of the ridge over the southeast states will cause the
bulk of the short wave energy to track northeast and well north of
Alabama. As the short wave trough passes to the north of Alabama...a
surface cold front will sink southward into northwest Alabama
Friday night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will precede
the front...and rain chances will be on the high side Friday
through Saturday. Severe weather parameters do not look favorable
for any organized severe storms. Lack of upper level dynamics and
a weak low level jet should keep storms below severe limits. The
GFS model shows a stronger and more progressive short wave trough
and clears most of the rain out of central Alabama Saturday
night. The European model (ecmwf) and Canadian models hold back a southern stream
trough and keep the deeper moisture across Alabama through Sunday.
For now will stay with the GFS scenario...but the upper flow
pattern the past few weeks certainly favors an active southern
stream...with systems hanging up over the central Gulf Coast
states.
-wunderground. Sorry, not all caps, and I can't keep the Courier font on here either.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:37 pm to Lou Pai
Check the weather.gov for cast discussions from the Birmingham NWS.
Basically there's a question of timing right now. One model has the energy moving to the east and drying out by Saturday Night. Two others hold the system up until Sunday, causing a cold and soaked Saturday Night.
I suspect it'll hold up and it'll be a slop fest, but im just an enthusiast and not a pro.
Basically there's a question of timing right now. One model has the energy moving to the east and drying out by Saturday Night. Two others hold the system up until Sunday, causing a cold and soaked Saturday Night.
I suspect it'll hold up and it'll be a slop fest, but im just an enthusiast and not a pro.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:47 pm to Lou Pai
I'm preparing for a ton of rain Friday & Saturday. Hopefully it stops by gametime.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 12:59 pm to Duke
Thanks, it seems like the prevailing trend is that it will be steady rain overnight, so there won't be a lot of opportunity to dry. Fortunately, it doesn't look like it will rain hard enough to be a slopfest like UGA-Bama or LSU-WKU were, given the current forecast, and I have faith the REC has provided adequate funding for a drainage and pump system.
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 1:07 pm to Lou Pai
I'm going to lean towards it not being a huge impact as far as severe weather goes (as in the game won't be cancelled for lightning etc), but it's still a bit far out for any sure things at this point
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 1:08 pm to Lou Pai
Low instability and low shear, should mean long lasting light steady rain. Think two weekends ago. You'll notice the mention of the pattern to hold systems up, just think of our recent weather to see that. Its why I suspect it'll be an all day steady rain through Sunday morning.
I really hope I'm wrong.
I really hope I'm wrong.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 1:10 pm to Duke
they weren't kidding about this el nino winter , were they?
Posted on 11/3/15 at 1:10 pm to Duke
quote:seems like more of a convective showers scenario to me. There might be extended periods of rain but it'll be more like the WKU game where it's heavy and there's significant breaks in between doses.
Its why I suspect it'll be an all day steady rain through Sunday morning.
I doubt it'll be as bad as WKU though
Posted on 11/3/15 at 1:12 pm to baytiger
Care to elaborate on why it's convective scenario? Guessing instability will higher than here along the coast. Just curious.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 1:48 pm to Lou Pai
Looks like a good old-fashioned GFS-Euro battle for Alabama week...
Posted on 11/3/15 at 2:04 pm to Lou Pai
All this moisture should move out in time for the game.
"Pal, you got that moisture on your head."
"Pal, you got that moisture on your head."
Posted on 11/3/15 at 3:11 pm to Duke
quote:basic cold frontal precip pattern without enough instability for severe convection
Care to elaborate on why it's convective scenario? Guessing instability will higher than here along the coast. Just curious.
there is some instability though, CAPE around 5-1500 or so late Friday into early Saturday per the gfs
or the Euro could be right and it's just nothing
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 3:21 pm to Lou Pai
Posted on 11/3/15 at 3:46 pm to Lou Pai
Would be friggin awesome if they have the lightening delays like LSU did for the McNeese game. I'd love to see how quick they schedule the game or how late they start it.
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