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My biggest single question about increased numbers in the United States and Louisiana...
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:44 am
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:44 am
How much of the increase is due to a bloom of cases and how much is due to expanded testing?
In Lousisiana, drive through testing which was taking three days to get results started Tuesday so a large bump Friday would have been expected.
Nationwide, the same sort of test rollout is occurring.
I do not write this to downplay the threat that Covid-19 may be but only to say the worst may not be nearly as bad as folks think.
In Italy, which is getting hit harder than China according to official but unreliable Chinese numbers, there are 47,000 cases. This is a country where a Mayor in the most affected region decided to virtue signal and tell people to Hug a Chinese person and post it when the virus was just becoming a problem there. It is also a country not known for hygeine where people hug and kiss like sorority girls upstairs at the house. In my mind, anyway. 47,000 is still less than 1/10 of 1% of the population of Italy.
In Lousisiana, drive through testing which was taking three days to get results started Tuesday so a large bump Friday would have been expected.
Nationwide, the same sort of test rollout is occurring.
I do not write this to downplay the threat that Covid-19 may be but only to say the worst may not be nearly as bad as folks think.
In Italy, which is getting hit harder than China according to official but unreliable Chinese numbers, there are 47,000 cases. This is a country where a Mayor in the most affected region decided to virtue signal and tell people to Hug a Chinese person and post it when the virus was just becoming a problem there. It is also a country not known for hygeine where people hug and kiss like sorority girls upstairs at the house. In my mind, anyway. 47,000 is still less than 1/10 of 1% of the population of Italy.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 9:46 am
6
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:45 am to Anaximander
Its testing
If you look for it you see it
Dont look dont see
If you look for it you see it
Dont look dont see
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 9:46 am
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:48 am to Anaximander
quote:
due to expanded testing?
Baton Rouge just started testing Tuesday
I’m not sure when the Ascension testing site was up & running
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:55 am to LSUJML
Baton Rouge started Monday. People (at least some of them) have not gotten results yet.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:57 am to Anaximander
India claims to have 283 cases.
They aren’t testing
They aren’t testing
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:05 am to Anaximander
quote:
is still less than 1/10 of 1% of the population of Italy.
And yet they are still having massive problems.
This statement isn’t reassuring.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:26 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
quote:
is still less than 1/10 of 1% of the population of Italy.
And yet they are still having massive problems.
This statement isn’t reassuring.
It is possible reassuring if they are nearing a peak. sadly, we won't know what is reassuring for certain until well after the event. I think the Hydroxychloroquine gambit may be a coin toss but if it correct it could be a gamechanger but it will be a while before we know.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:10 am to Anaximander
This week its expanding testing confirming those already sick with symptoms last week or infected last 2 weeks & now showing symptoms. Next week will be more of same but tilted towards infected last week while also including some infected this week (while symptoms start next).
If illness onset starts 7 to 14 days after infection it's obvious we are just confirming right now & most of next week the amount we suspected were infected already last week that triggered all the various closures and shutdowns to be announced. More tests will show more of these.
As of 14th FDA stopped having the CDC confirm every test, but before even though one chart tracked illness onset date and another tracked date CDC received samples it was easy to see how increase in cases end of Feb and first week or 2 of March and the increase in daily testing tracked similarly. That had to play into making theses announcements last week instead of waiting for the actual results of exponentially increased daily tests this week first which would just confirm what was suspected and delay slowing down spread.
If illness onset starts 7 to 14 days after infection it's obvious we are just confirming right now & most of next week the amount we suspected were infected already last week that triggered all the various closures and shutdowns to be announced. More tests will show more of these.
As of 14th FDA stopped having the CDC confirm every test, but before even though one chart tracked illness onset date and another tracked date CDC received samples it was easy to see how increase in cases end of Feb and first week or 2 of March and the increase in daily testing tracked similarly. That had to play into making theses announcements last week instead of waiting for the actual results of exponentially increased daily tests this week first which would just confirm what was suspected and delay slowing down spread.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:13 am to Anaximander
I’m really curious about the sensitivity and specificity of these tests.
Are these test kits FDA approved? Is there any oversight in their manufacturing? We put a whole lot of faith into these test kits, so I’d like to know how good they are.
Are these test kits FDA approved? Is there any oversight in their manufacturing? We put a whole lot of faith into these test kits, so I’d like to know how good they are.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:54 am to TulaneLSU
quote:
I’m really curious about the sensitivity and specificity of these tests.
This^. The reason we have the best healthcare system in the world is the rigorous validation necessary to bring lab tests, procedures and drugs to market. I can see how standards would be lax in times like these but a retrospective study, Im sure, will find some of these tests lack the performance the manufacturers are claiming.
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