- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:56 pm to TigerBait1971
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:56 pm to TigerBait1971
Why are you being such a condescending prick?
1
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:57 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Ok here it is. Computer models predict with a certain amount of accurate water levels. The models suggest a possible topping of the spillway. As time has progressed, the models have shown this likely wont happen. This is based on current data and always subject to change
Now run tell dat
To me, it's like when I'm watching the weather on the 5 pm news, and the weatherman is live telling me it's sunny, and there's a damn rainstorm outside my window.
It's not like we as a society have complete, unfettering faith in the federal government.
People look outside and see the river so high, has been so high for months. People know that a diversion would lower (or prevent rising) the levels downstream (i.e. what we are seeing with levee breaks upstream / Ark river).
Remember during Harvey, people were freaking TF out (for good reason) and that met from the flood district, Jeff Lindher (might be misspelling that name) kept coming on and explaining why things were happening, what was going to happen next, why things were changing, etc?
People want information, they want to think they are being told the straight truth, even if they don't understand it completely.
Shoot, look at how Jindal would act during emergency events? He would get up there and throw off all kinds of stats and numbers about what was happening, what they were doing, what assets they had ready, etc? It projects confidence and is reassuring to the public.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:58 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
The river was also climbing fast at the Natchez gage, having reached 58 feet, more than ten feet above fl ood stage
I can tell you one thing for absolute certain...if Natchez floods, anyone within about 250 miles of the Mississippi is fricked
Flood stage is when the river spills over its banks. It floods on the Louisiana side not the Mississippi side. Makes no sense to me since Vidalia is the town that is having to worry about being flooded, but it makes sense to the government.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:59 pm to TigerBait1971
quote:
You think average T-bob coonass will understand all that or believe it?
So because T-Bob won't understand it, they shouldn't tell the people who will understand it?
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:01 pm to tgrbaitn08
Sorry, I'm waiting on 5 o'clock and am needing a whiskey.
My apologies.
My apologies.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:03 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
Rumors flying after doing some testing they aren't confident the structure can withstand the force of the water going through
It withstood the force of the water in 2011. It has been 8 years since that flood they had plenty of time to make repairs and improvements since then. I am willing to bet that is not the reason. My guess is that the river is not rising as fast as they were afraid that it would and they do not want to open it because unlike when they open the BCS, opening the Morganza causes property damage and flooding in other parts of the state.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:03 pm to TigerBait1971
quote:
Sorry, I'm waiting on 5 o'clock and am needing a whiskey.
Why wait till 5? You must punch a clock loser.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:05 pm to tgrbaitn08
Good idea...leaving now.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:05 pm to slackster
quote:
I know the trigger is either A) the flow through Red River Landing or B) the height @ the Morganza structure itself. I know B was the concern in this case, not A.
See youre off here. The triggers are flow rate, and height on the river gages. Not height at Morganza spillway. Previously, you would meet both parameters before the spillway would be threatened with topping. That wasnt the case this year ( possibly due to the bed of the river being full of silt)
Morganza topping was something entirely new from 2011. The thought was that if its topped, and the Ohio River watershed area dictated that it needed to be opened, it wouldnt be possible with flows already going over.
So, they went off the models and said we'll open it just enough to keep it from going over. Not open it enough to alleviate pressure on levees or to save BR. Only to keep it from being topped. Now that topping isnt a threat due to whatever science and calculations they use, no reason to open.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:08 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
People want information, they want to think they are being told the straight truth, even if they don't understand it completely.
Shoot, look at how Jindal would act during emergency events? He would get up there and throw off all kinds of stats and numbers about what was happening, what they were doing, what assets they had ready, etc? It projects confidence and is reassuring to the public.
This occurred when it was first announced that they may have to open. If people need drama in their life and want to participate in gossip and wish casting then thats their problem, not the COE.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:16 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
This occurred when it was first announced that they may have to open. If people need drama in their life and want to participate in gossip and wish casting then thats their problem, not the COE.
WTF are you talking about? People don't want drama, they want facts, which have come in very short supply from the flacks at the ACoE.
People are aware that any prediction is an inexact science.
People also have placed blind trust in the ACoE before, and have gotten screwed because of it.
Is it so hard for them to spend 3-5 minutes giving a basic explanation for what has changed and why it has changed?
What are they afraid of?
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:20 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
What’s the difference when a hurricane landfall and track changes from the forecast the weather guys will usually tell the public what caused the wobble, or intensity change or whatever
This is no different. Let the people know, educate us.
If they just say, “our predictions were wrong”
Well then yeah, no surprise, they were wrong about the levees for Katrina. That’s why no one trust the COE.
This is no different. Let the people know, educate us.
If they just say, “our predictions were wrong”
Well then yeah, no surprise, they were wrong about the levees for Katrina. That’s why no one trust the COE.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:21 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
giving a basic explanation for what has changed and why it has changed?
Jeeze man im sorry but I just have a hard time wrapping my mind around this line of thinking and why you feel it needs further explanation than
quote:
what has changed
The Spillway looks like it wont be topped
quote:
why it has changed
there aint enough water to do that
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:27 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
What’s the difference
quote:
hurricane landfall
Creates public safety issues, severe weather, travel, etc
Morganza not opening..
no travel issues, no threats to public safety, life goes on as normal for everyone
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:29 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
The Spillway looks like it wont be topped
quote:
there aint enough water to do that
That's the effect. What is the cause?
This isn't hard.
Next you will say, "Well, not enough water". But WHY? Their predictions had enough water. Why were the predictions wrong? What changed?
Is it somewhat basic? Perhaps, which is all the more reason why I don't understand why they don't just come out and say it.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:30 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
See youre off here. The triggers are flow rate, and height on the river gages. Not height at Morganza spillway. Previously, you would meet both parameters before the spillway would be threatened with topping. That wasnt the case this year ( possibly due to the bed of the river being full of silt)
Height at the spillway was the reason they opened it a little earlier than the river height/flow at Red River Landing would have required in 2011.
quote:
Morganza topping was something entirely new from 2011. The thought was that if its topped, and the Ohio River watershed area dictated that it needed to be opened, it wouldnt be possible with flows already going over.
Well yeah, that's why I called it a trigger. It is a relatively new development.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:32 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Jeeze man im sorry but I just have a hard time wrapping my mind around this line of thinking and why you feel it needs further explanation than
To increase public trust would be my argument.
As it sits now, they just look like they were simply wrong. Explaining why you were wrong builds trust.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:32 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Vidalia
I’m just here for the Butt-Hutt
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:33 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Morganza not opening..
Why was it predicted to overtop then it wasn’t then it was and now it’s not?
What made them think it would overtop the first and second time and now they don’t think it will?
What was the cause and effect?
Why was there enough water then now there isn’t? Where did the water go?
Posted on 6/6/19 at 4:33 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Jeeze man im sorry but I just have a hard time wrapping my mind around this line of thinking and why you feel it needs further explanation than
It's simple, they base the decision to open on modeling of the river. They say that they are planning to open it because the model says the river will get too high. Then they decide not to because the modeling shows it won't be that high.
So, an explaination lets people know they understand the modeling they're using and not just deciding bc model. Since if it was wrong before, why isn't it wrong now?
Page 96 of 107
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News