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re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:22 am to Capt ST
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:22 am to Capt ST
A question for the experts here. If they knew this was coming and they did. Why not open the entire morganza spillway way ahead of time, If you think the ORCS is in any danger? Don't give it a chance to be a issue. Kind of like New Orleans will pump down the canals before a hurricane.
This post was edited on 5/23/19 at 11:26 am
6
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:24 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Where does a security guard go to be an expert on flooding?
Same place they go to elevate the river instead of alleviating it, per his post
This post was edited on 5/23/19 at 11:26 am
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:24 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
A question for the experts here. If they knew this was coming and they did. Why not open the entire morganza spillway way ahead of time, If you think the ORCS is in any danger?
Need water for boat traffic downstream
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:24 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
A question for the experts here. If they knew this was coming and they did. Why not open the entire morganza spillway way ahead of time, If you think the ORCS is in any danger?
They don't want to flood the floodway and Assumption Parish more than they have to. If they can get by with opening only a few bays, which will keep a "minimal" amount of water in the floodway and the river below the tops of the levees from BR to NOLA, then that's what they're going to do. No sense in going balls to the wall if it appears there's a less drastic solution.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:28 am to MountainTiger
Google earth 2016 date shows a good idea of the flood area around Morganza
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:29 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
They don't want to flood the floodway and Assumption Parish more than they have to. If they can get by with opening only a few bays, which will keep a "minimal" amount of water in the floodway and the river below the tops of the levees from BR to NOLA, then that's what they're going to do. No sense in going balls to the wall if it appears there's a less drastic solution.
Understandable, just wonder with the river being so high for so long the levees have to have been weakened some from being saturated. Does this raise the risk of a breach somewhere? With levees sinking and the silt building at what point do they reach a point where something has to be done?
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:32 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
Why not open the entire morganza spillway way ahead of time, If you think the ORCS is in any danger?
They don't think ORCS is in any danger, for starters. They open Morganza WELL before there is any real threat to ORCS. What you're suggesting is exactly what they're going to do.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:33 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
With levees sinking and the silt building at what point do they reach a point where something has to be done?
The point where something has to be done will almost assuredly be reactive and not proactive. History has shown us that.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:34 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
If you think the ORCS is in any danger?
According to the linked article previously posted, I don't think opening the Morganza is due to concerns with ORCS but concerns with Morganza being overtopped and the resulting damage.
From the article....
“Based on the current forecast – specifically projected rain in the valley over the next several days – we could encounter the potential of overtopping the Morganza Control Structure,” he said, adding that the spillway structure – which contains 125 gates that are opened and closed by two cranes rolling on special tracks atop the structure – “cannot be safely operated if overtopped.”
“There are a couple of factors regarding safety that we must consider, but primarily it is unsafe for our personnel. Additionally, the structure is designed to hold back water, but was not designed to be operated while overtopped,” he said.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:36 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
at what point do they reach a point where something has to be done?
Think we are at that point. In addition to the changes in the river it seems that data collected from previous floods may not apply.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:41 am to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
In addition to the changes in the river it seems that data collected from previous floods may not apply.
Not with the rate its silting in.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:59 am to CarRamrod
quote:
CarRamrod
What is your expert opinion on the idea of sinking the barge in Bayou Chene at this point? The backwater flooding is already occurring, how devastating could that be if those areas get a significant rain event? Where would the water go?
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:15 pm to Capt ST
So why not slowly allow the river to adjust?
If it's only a matter of time before it corrects itself any way, at least let it be on our terms and allow communities/industries to adjust accordingly over years instead of an extreme event and it happen all at once.
If it's only a matter of time before it corrects itself any way, at least let it be on our terms and allow communities/industries to adjust accordingly over years instead of an extreme event and it happen all at once.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:18 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
allow communities/industries to adjust accordingly over years instead of an extreme event and it happen all at once.
Financially I dont think this is anything any govt entity or company wants to do until they have to
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:22 pm to CarRamrod
Well, you should do a better job cuz they suck.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:22 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
Why not open the entire morganza spillway way ahead of time, If you think the ORCS is in any danger?
My guess is a lack of confidence in a control structure which was built 75 years ago. Once you start opening gates, the volume of water under the kind of pressure shooting through there... the whole thing could disintegrate.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:23 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
No doubt, but I would think costs would be less in that situation as opposed to an emergency.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:26 pm to GusMcRae
Does anyone know how much lower the BR gauge will drop if/when they open the Morganza? Any chance it could drop it below 40’?
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:30 pm to Ponchy Tiger
I think that until very recently they thought it would be OK. Now they fear overtopping at Morgan’s a and the chance however slim that this be the start of a new channel.
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:36 pm to GusMcRae
The idea of the ORCS failing and Morganza opening arent related as I understand it. Now, if Morganza is over topped thne maybe it could erode the back side and fail but that would be the same as a levee breach. Once the river goes back to normal height it would be in the same path and fine. A slow release there will cause a lot less damage than a blow out would I imagine.
As far as ORCS, its diverting at maximum capacity and has for a while. Question is whether it can hold up doing so with so much pressure against it for so long.
As far as ORCS, its diverting at maximum capacity and has for a while. Question is whether it can hold up doing so with so much pressure against it for so long.
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