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Medical professionals: How accurate are these Covid -19 test
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:40 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:40 pm
I know they were rushed into production, which typically means they were properly tested, the first batch was bad etc and hearing some local physicians really questioning the results of people they are confident have Covid-19. Also hearing repeated stories of people who die from Covid-19 that were negative, and the flu virus swab test Is notoriously unreliable.
Is there a definitive test like a blood test or something that just isn’t readily available?
Is there a definitive test like a blood test or something that just isn’t readily available?
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:41 pm to TutHillTiger
Just stay at home Karen
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:42 pm to TutHillTiger
There is a new rectal scrape test. It’s like a pap smear. Seems promising.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:44 pm to TutHillTiger
Allegedly the American tests have a sensitivity of 95%, meaning only 5% of people who have the test and the new coronavirus will test negative (a false negative). The sensitivity will only get better as they refine the tests. American tests are much better than the Chinese tests, whose sensitivity was only around 65-70%.
Specificity is 99-100%, meaning that if you test positive you certainly have the new coronavirus (very low false positive rate).
Specificity is 99-100%, meaning that if you test positive you certainly have the new coronavirus (very low false positive rate).
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 10:45 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:45 pm to TutHillTiger
PCR is incredibly accurate and specific. However, in about 5% of the cases we will get an inconclusive or invalid test result. Operator error, prozone effect, incorrect storage can cause this. We had to tell the ER department to stop bleaching the outside of the plastic bags that contain the swab as that will skew results. The test itself is damn accurate!
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:50 pm to TutHillTiger
I've seen studies put the sensitivity as low as 78% for the nasal swab.
LINK
That means there would be around a 22% false negative rate.
edit: that would be for the Chinese test, though. Supposedly the test in the US has higher sensitivity, though this is unproven currently. We don't seem to have a gold standard to compare it to at the moment, so it is all pretty uncertain.
LINK
That means there would be around a 22% false negative rate.
edit: that would be for the Chinese test, though. Supposedly the test in the US has higher sensitivity, though this is unproven currently. We don't seem to have a gold standard to compare it to at the moment, so it is all pretty uncertain.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 11:00 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:52 pm to frogglet
That was a Chinese study. Those tests are not the same as the ones being done in America.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:55 pm to TulaneLSU
Is there a study that evaluates the sensitivity of the nasal swab test here in the US?
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:04 pm to ItalianTiger
quote:
PCR is incredibly accurate and specific. However, in about 5% of the cases we will get an inconclusive or invalid test result. Operator error, prozone effect, incorrect storage can cause this. We had to tell the ER department to stop bleaching the outside of the plastic bags that contain the swab as that will skew results. The test itself is damn accurate!
That's assuming the virus is always going to be present in the nasopharynx in an infected person, right? Is that always going to a valid assumption?
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:04 pm to frogglet
China’s sensitivity was 63%
They think the tests we are using in Minnesota have a sensitivity between 60 and 70%. That means the false negative is between 30 and 40% in Minnesota.
I don’t know about Louisiana though
They think the tests we are using in Minnesota have a sensitivity between 60 and 70%. That means the false negative is between 30 and 40% in Minnesota.
I don’t know about Louisiana though
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:05 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
hearing some local physicians really questioning the results of people they are confident have Covid-19.
No you haven’t. My wife is a physician. No one is saying this at all.
quote:Lol what? They died from it but didn’t have it?
Also hearing repeated stories of people who die from Covid-19 that were negative
quote:You think that we have the capacity to test millions of people’s blood samples at labs?
Is there a definitive test like a blood test or something that just isn’t readily available?
The swab they take is dna. The dna is tested to see if the strain is in your system.
Stay inside a-hole.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:05 pm to frogglet
There are, but I do not have access to them. Dr. Roger Seheult, whose daily lectures on Youtube cite that number, is my source. Somewhere in his lectures he has a citation for the study, but I don't have the time right now to watch 45+ of his lectures to find it.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:06 pm to frogglet
quote:Yeah I guess we’ll just have to rely on those scientist and what not.
Supposedly the test in the US has higher sensitivity, though this is unproven currently. We don't seem to have a gold standard to compare it to at the moment, so it is all pretty uncertain.
Jesus Christ.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:07 pm to TulaneLSU
quote:
I don't have the time right now to watch 45+ of his lectures to find it.
When you do have the time can you please rank the top 10 lectures? Thanks
Your friend,
Tyga Woods, 2018 Comeback Poster of the Year
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:10 pm to Solo Cam
Physicians are absolutely questioning the test. Just because your wife isn’t doesn’t mean others aren’t.
There’s current guidelines set up in Minnesota to basically ignore negative test results if the clinical picture looks like covid, because we’re experiencing around a 30-40% false negative rate here.
Source: am physician in Minnesota
There’s current guidelines set up in Minnesota to basically ignore negative test results if the clinical picture looks like covid, because we’re experiencing around a 30-40% false negative rate here.
Source: am physician in Minnesota
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:11 pm to TulaneLSU
quote:
There are, but I do not have access to them. Dr. Roger Seheult, whose daily lectures on Youtube cite that number, is my source. Somewhere in his lectures he has a citation for the study, but I don't have the time right now to watch 45+ of his lectures to find it.
I'm just wondering if that number is for just the PCR itself on known samples? If so it wouldn't take into account problems with sample collection itself.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:20 pm to frogglet
Correct, only with the PCR testing. The sensitivity does not take into account swab technique insufficiency. The University of Washington has a very thorough sampling strategy that I doubt many drive-through swab technicians are using. To do so would cause quite a bit of discomfort to the patient as well as likely sneezing and coughing. Someone getting paid $15/hour may not want to go through the trouble and danger associated with such a thorough technique.
According to the UW website, appropriate swabbing entails the following:
Insert the Minitip flocked swab into the nostril PARALLEL to the palate until resistance is met by contact with the nasopharynx.
Leave swab in place for 2-3 seconds then rotate completely around for 10-15 seconds.
Remove swab and repeat the same process in the other nostril with the same swab.
Source: LINK
Perhaps someone here who was tested can inform us if that is the technique used on them.
According to the UW website, appropriate swabbing entails the following:
Insert the Minitip flocked swab into the nostril PARALLEL to the palate until resistance is met by contact with the nasopharynx.
Leave swab in place for 2-3 seconds then rotate completely around for 10-15 seconds.
Remove swab and repeat the same process in the other nostril with the same swab.
Source: LINK
Perhaps someone here who was tested can inform us if that is the technique used on them.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 11:22 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:25 pm to TulaneLSU
Yeah I think the 95% sensitivity makes sense if ppl were using UW’s mode of collection. But they aren’t. They never go into both nostrils and rarely leave it in for more than a couple of seconds in one nostril.
Sampling is definitely the largest barrier to higher sensitivity, because PCR is super accurate, sensitive, and specific, if the sample gets to that point.
Sampling is definitely the largest barrier to higher sensitivity, because PCR is super accurate, sensitive, and specific, if the sample gets to that point.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 1:48 pm to Solo Cam
Duck you a-hole, I probably know more doctors than you, and I am personal friends with Dr. Chin Yang. Google it.
Thank you to other people that gave some real responses. I was asking because my daughter was exposed, got very ill, was strongly suspected of having Covid-19 but tested negative with government nasal swab, but all her treating physicians are skeptical, and advised us to act as if she had it, as she had all symptoms as there is no way to retest.
Thank you to other people that gave some real responses. I was asking because my daughter was exposed, got very ill, was strongly suspected of having Covid-19 but tested negative with government nasal swab, but all her treating physicians are skeptical, and advised us to act as if she had it, as she had all symptoms as there is no way to retest.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 1:55 pm to TutHillTiger
She most likely had it. If sampled perfectly, the test is 95% sensitive. But in real world testing, it is hardly ever sampled correctly and there is an estimated 30-40% false negative rate.
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