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re: Made an ITALY vs LA chart with control measures taken included

Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:50 pm to
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:50 pm to
All great points. Like I said, I go back and forth. Italy having a larger population actually makes things a little more concerning for us because we are following their trajectory and we are much smaller than them.

I think the Governor’s orders will help to flatten the curve. I cringe though when I think of the economy. Basically, it’s just a yucky situation all around.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 9:52 pm
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

What’s that got to do with anything?


I believe in God
Posted by Buck_Rogers
Member since Jul 2013
2149 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:52 pm to
quote:

they’re an entire nation and we’re just a measly state


Definition:
state - a nation or territory considered as an organized political community under one government.
"Germany, Italy, and other European states"

I'm not sure why people don't get the fact that most nations are a single state. We are a nation of many states that are "United" as a federation.
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:53 pm to
Whatever. You get the point
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
53612 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:55 pm to
quote:

Italy having a larger population actually makes things a little more concerning for us because we are following their trajectory and we are much smaller than them.


No it doesn’t.

Jesus.

You are tracking the initial phases. Overall population doesn’t matter here, just density and frequency of interaction. You are still radiating out from similar numbers of index cases in both situations.

All population means is that you’ll run out of susceptible hosts in fewer generations and thus case curves will begin to level off.
Posted by Rhino5
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2014
30970 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:57 pm to



Try using a ruler for straight lines.
Posted by HogWalloper
LaLaLand
Member since Jan 2020
470 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:58 pm to
Damn. Looks like some Tulane(DidNotGoTo)LSU shite.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
88346 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:59 pm to
Do you know how to use excel?
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:21 pm to
The way I, and apparently a lot of other people, are looking at it is this.

The population of Italy is 15 times the population of Louisiana. Italy is twice the amount of square miles of Louisiana.

Example:
you put 1 infected person in a 2000 square foot reception hall of 100 people

and you put 1 infected person in a 4,000 square foot room with 1,500 people

wouldn’t you think more infected people would walk out of the 4,000 square foot room with 1,500 people?

But that’s not what’s happening here. Our numbers are the same as Italy’s.

I see what you’re saying about the initial phases. Good point. But it’s still a little unsettling that we are indeed following the same numbers.

The numbers coming out the next 2 weeks will be interesting.

Again, I’m not saying it’s absolutely certainly doom and gloom for Louisiana, nor am I saying we are in the clear.

After watching the governor’s address, i was interested in looking at what he mentioned—Italy’s path compared to ours. So I did, and I now see why he felt compelled to shut everything down. I still cringe though when I think about the economy.


This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 10:55 pm
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:24 pm to
Do you know how to use excel?

Yes. I do.

I have 5 kids, and since the 4 in school are currently “distance learning”, all 4 computers in the house were occupied, so I used paper.
Posted by Unknown_Poster
Member since Jun 2013
5758 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:28 pm to
quote:

What a waste of your time and now ours

Not a fan of raw data?
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 10:29 pm
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
52912 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:30 pm to
quote:

The population of Italy is 4 times the population of Louisiana.

Wat
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79878 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

After watching the governor’s address, i was interesting in looking at what he mentioned—Italy’s path compared to ours.


So why didn't you do Korea's path?
Posted by Unknown_Poster
Member since Jun 2013
5758 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:33 pm to
quote:


So why didn't you do Korea's path?

No harm in doing that, either.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79878 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:34 pm to
Or compare us to, you know, Milan.

Since you are comparing number of cases, you need to get the number of tests performed as well.

Since Italy only shutdown yesterday.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 10:39 pm
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:37 pm to
I might do korea tomm
Posted by BamaCoaster
God's Gulf
Member since Apr 2016
7408 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

Might be worth noting that the Italy death numbers aren't cumulative. Those are daily numbers.

I'm sure most people know that though


I’m not sure the author did.
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:38 pm to
Yes. I made note of that in my OP
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 10:41 pm
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
52912 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:39 pm to
I’m just impressed you managed to run those numbers while having five kids

I have one and barely got to weedeat before I had to go entertain him
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 10:40 pm
Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:41 pm to
quote:

I’m just impressed you managed to run those numbers while having five kids I have one and barely got to weedeat before I had to go entertain him




I intended on planting flowers today. That didn’t happen, though.

But there’s always tomorrow and the next day and the next .....
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