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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 6, 2020 Update: 66,327 cases - 3,188 deaths - 813,645 tested
Posted on 7/7/20 at 6:47 am to fightin tigers
Posted on 7/7/20 at 6:47 am to fightin tigers
Deaths are still not rising like they were in the bad off states in March and April. Not even close. Houston is an “epicenter” that has hovered around 400 deaths for a month now.
1
Posted on 7/7/20 at 6:50 am to NIH
Not disagreeing with that.
Probably a combination of many different reasons. Think it is way too early to say we won't see a dramatic increase though.
Last week tiger91 was saying that increased cases wouldn't necessarily result in more deaths, which is illogical. If this thing kills .03% or 5% more people getting infected means more deaths.
Probably a combination of many different reasons. Think it is way too early to say we won't see a dramatic increase though.
Last week tiger91 was saying that increased cases wouldn't necessarily result in more deaths, which is illogical. If this thing kills .03% or 5% more people getting infected means more deaths.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 6:55 am to fightin tigers
The Houston hospitals were at red alert almost a month ago. If not soon I do not see a dramatic increase. An increase but nothing crazy. It’s clear younger people are going to the hospital and the hospitals are better at treatment.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 6:57 am to fightin tigers
quote:
Think it is way too early to say we won't see a dramatic increase though.
It’s been past 3 weeks since cases started to “spike”. The last time cases spiked, the deaths spiked less than 10 days after
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:02 am to Oilfieldbiology
The last time being the first time?
Trying to correlate anything from the first spike will prove to be hard. The info is limited at best and inadvertently manipulated.
We were behind the first outbreak just by virtue of not being ready. Cases weren't truly doubling every 2 days, we were just testing at that rate.
Trying to correlate anything from the first spike will prove to be hard. The info is limited at best and inadvertently manipulated.
We were behind the first outbreak just by virtue of not being ready. Cases weren't truly doubling every 2 days, we were just testing at that rate.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:04 am to NIH
quote:
It’s clear younger people are going to the hospital and the hospitals are better at treatment.
Without a doubt. The older population is slowly trending up in infections as well. That will likely be more of the concern moving forward.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:07 am to fightin tigers
But that was a spike though right? Deaths spiked shortly after confirmed cases.
If more and more people are testing positive after being mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, wouldn’t it stand to reason we aren’t going to see the deaths spike with the cases last time?
If more and more people are testing positive after being mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, wouldn’t it stand to reason we aren’t going to see the deaths spike with the cases last time?
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:14 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
But that was a spike though right? Deaths spiked shortly after confirmed cases.
There was probably a delay built in to case reporting on the first spike due to lack of testing abilities. So trying to apply the ten day lag probably won’t work here.
quote:
If more and more people are testing positive after being mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, wouldn’t it stand to reason we aren’t going to see the deaths spike with the cases last time?
I think we won’t see the same type of death spike because the virus isnt as strong as it was in April and May. Plus, it already wiped out a lot of the low hanging fruit.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:22 am to Antonio Moss
quote:How do you know the virus has gotten weaker? Have I missed articles showing a mutation of the virus to a less deadly strain?
the virus isnt as strong as it was in April and May.
Or have the infected had more robust immune systems?
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:29 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
Deaths spiked shortly after confirmed cases.
Deaths spiked shortly after we ramped up testing you mean.
For instance, say we hadn't tested anyone at this point. We have 0 coronavirus infections. We start testing at noon and find 500 people in the first day, another 750 tomorrow, 1000 on Saturday and continue forward. It would look like the spike started today.
That is sort of what we did. The first confirmed case was just a few days before the first death. The spread as we know was much much larger than we imagined.
The total number of confirmed cases can probably be much higher without the number of deaths being equal sheerly due to increased testing.
This post was edited on 7/7/20 at 7:33 am
Posted on 7/7/20 at 8:19 am to Bullfrog
quote:
How do you know the virus has gotten weaker?
Just testimonials from local doctors about what they are seeing now as compared to April and May. There were a few articles out of Italy this month stating the same.
quote:
Have I missed articles showing a mutation of the virus to a less deadly strain?
That’s one theory; another is that the heat and humidity in the Northern Hemisphere has weakened viral load transmission.
quote:
Or have the infected had more robust immune systems?
A lot of very weak people (immunity wise) died during the first wave so it would stand to reason that pure death rates will decline in the second go around.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 8:23 am to Antonio Moss
Thanks for the answers.
Hopefully not!
quote:My worry is the next go round will be a page from the Spanish Flu playbook and return with a vengeance.
A lot of very weak people (immunity wise) died during the first wave so it would stand to reason that pure death rates will decline in the second go around.
Hopefully not!
Posted on 7/7/20 at 8:29 am to Bullfrog
quote:
My worry is the next go round will be a page from the Spanish Flu playbook and return with a vengeance.
Hopefully not!
I worry that weakening is due to the heat and humidity and that vital transmission loads will increase as we move into the winter.
However, comparing this to the Spanish Flu isn’t legitimate because the Spanish Flu killed young, healthy people unlike COVID
Posted on 7/7/20 at 9:07 am to Antonio Moss
quote:Good point.
However, comparing this to the Spanish Flu isn’t legitimate because the Spanish Flu killed young, healthy people unlike COVID
I can’t hardy watch the news anymore without screaming at the tv.
I’ve never seen it more scare tactic and half truth slanted in my life. It goes into double overload any time the virus story intersects the president. Though governors and mayors are pretty cringeworthy in the opposite direction of the president.
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