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re: Let's Do It Again: Severe Threat 3/30 - Line of Severe Storms leaving SELA. AL in it now
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:23 pm to NeonSunburst
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:23 pm to NeonSunburst
It is me in the picture actually
Well I’m wearing a PFG which is a fishing shirt so that’s why it didn’t make sense
Well I’m wearing a PFG which is a fishing shirt so that’s why it didn’t make sense
3
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:26 pm to deltaland
HRRR
NAM
Both at 21z.
I'm leaning toward the HRRR in this instance, as far as the overall look of things. I do not want any part of that NAM run.
NAM
Both at 21z.
I'm leaning toward the HRRR in this instance, as far as the overall look of things. I do not want any part of that NAM run.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:28 pm to deltaland
I didn't say it made sense!
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
Oh good. I love significant differences in mode the night before.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:46 pm to LegendInMyMind
both of them are unsettling, tomorrow is going to be interesting, im a bit surprised they haven't expanded the moderate a bit farther south
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:50 pm to Duke
quote:
Oh good. I love significant differences in mode the night before.
I'm choosing to go with a combo of the two. I call it the NAMRRR.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:50 pm to DVinBR
quote:
im a bit surprised they haven't expanded the moderate
A bigger MOD area? Sure, why not at this point?
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:51 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Interestingly, it is firing discreet cells ahead of the line in North MS, moreso than the 18z run. I don't like this run for that part of Mississippi. There's some of that going on back in Northern LA,
Well shite
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:52 pm to LegendInMyMind
That’s a spicy meatball
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:52 pm to LegendInMyMind
Repeat of last week from the looks of it. I’ll be watering my grass Thursday
Posted on 3/29/22 at 9:57 pm to Duke
NAM likes the big winds more than HRRR, too. HRRR may even be downplaying the wind a bit.
I only took a really close look at the winds heading into NW AL (obvious reasons), and the NAM is about 15 mph higher than HRRR at 23z. It isn't quite that much difference over the whole line, but it is a noticeable difference.
ETA: Timing could account for some of the differences. NAM is slower than HRRR.
I only took a really close look at the winds heading into NW AL (obvious reasons), and the NAM is about 15 mph higher than HRRR at 23z. It isn't quite that much difference over the whole line, but it is a noticeable difference.
ETA: Timing could account for some of the differences. NAM is slower than HRRR.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 10:03 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 10:15 pm to LegendInMyMind
I just went through yazoo shitty and it’s 76 degree out at 10 pm.
That’s not good. Lot of energy will be in the air tomorrow. Wind is already ripping pretty good
That’s not good. Lot of energy will be in the air tomorrow. Wind is already ripping pretty good
Posted on 3/29/22 at 10:20 pm to deltaland
That's what I was telling LSUGrrrl earlier. The DFW area won't reach their max dews until early in the AM. They'll still be around 70° then. That's why their risk doesn't diminish because it is overnight.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 10:24 pm to deltaland
Same in AL—72 in BHM @ 10 PM. Going to be a short run to hit 80+ Tomorrow!
Posted on 3/29/22 at 10:26 pm to deltaland
Our wind was pretty healthy all day.
Line is about to arrive in the Falls - 11ish. Calling for gusty winds and small hail. It has strengthened in the past hour - mainly North and South of us...nothing warned near us, severe thunderstorm watch.
Line is about to arrive in the Falls - 11ish. Calling for gusty winds and small hail. It has strengthened in the past hour - mainly North and South of us...nothing warned near us, severe thunderstorm watch.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 10:33 pm to deltaland
The Doppler on Wheels is in Mississippi.
@DOWFacility
The PERILS project specifically studies QLCS events and the tornadoes they produce.
UAH SWIRLL also has a big team headed out for tomorrow.
@DOWFacility
quote:
Have arrived in northeast MS ahead of @PERiLS_Project IOP2. Now time for a radar-only parking lot slumber party
LINK
The PERILS project specifically studies QLCS events and the tornadoes they produce.
UAH SWIRLL also has a big team headed out for tomorrow.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 10:35 pm
Posted on 3/29/22 at 10:46 pm to LegendInMyMind
Whatever happened to Reed Timmer saying he was targeting the area just to the south of the moderate risk?
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:02 pm to DVinBR
quote:
both of them are unsettling, tomorrow is going to be interesting, im a bit surprised they haven't expanded the moderate a bit farther south
I'm not sold on that looking at the CAMs tonight.
No justification on the wind risk. Tornado risk would require more confidence in the line breaking to raise those probabilities and we already have a hatched up for the potential of EF2+s. I'd hold it as is if I'm at the SPC.
But if they upgrade an area tonight, just remember they are better at this than I am.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:11 pm to Duke
I think and upgrade hinges on how confident they are that the cap will hold across the warm sector. I believe if we continue to see those discrete cells over North/Central MS fire they may consider an upgrade to a High. I don't see it right now or at the 1 AM update, but they may pull the trigger sometime before lunch tomorrow.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 11:13 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Whatever happened to Reed Timmer saying he was targeting the area just to the south of the moderate risk?
I haven't had a chance to watch his videos from today. I'd imagine that he'd be somewhere in MS now waiting to see how things shake out in the AM.
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