- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/12/17 at 11:54 am to dbeck
Yes, I grew up watching Let's Make A Deal.
And my response to what I quoted still stands.
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
And my response to what I quoted still stands.
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:07 pm to TigrrrDad
Myth busters has the perfect episode explaining this concept.
The create the same game and the person who switches wins way more.
It's just conditional probabilities
The create the same game and the person who switches wins way more.
It's just conditional probabilities
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:08 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
The answer is yes for reasons I have never completely understood
Because you actively get another choice. It creates a new problem, and if you stay with the original answer it's still 1/3 where a new answer is 1/2.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:12 pm to Jcorye1
What is incorrect about the scenario I posted?
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:15 pm to SlapahoeTribe
I always feel like I have 50/50 after thr goat is revealed.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:16 pm to TigrrrDad
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:21 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
What you're missing is that deliberately showing you a goat is different than randomly showing you a goat. If the host shows you a goat on purpose, it's the same as not showing you a goat at all. In that case, switching is trading your door for his two.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:22 pm to dbeck
Get it now
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:33 pm to dbeck
Like I said, that is not the problem stated in the OP. That one specifically noted that you pick door #1 and they open door #3. It's two different scenarios.
I showed all possible outcomes of the problem stated in the OP, and it's 50/50. Switching is of no benefit.
I showed all possible outcomes of the problem stated in the OP, and it's 50/50. Switching is of no benefit.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:39 pm to TigrrrDad
You have a 50/50 chance of being retarded.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:43 pm to dbeck
Tell me where my scenario is wrong then. 
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
That is the problem stated in the OP.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
That is the problem stated in the OP.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:45 pm to dbeck
Dad is actually correct that the OP did not specify that the host knows which door has the car and will only open a door showing a goat.
If the host has no idea, then it doesn't matter if you switch and it is a 50/50 shot.
If the host does know, then yes you are correct that it is better to switch. But problem as stated in the OP did not specify this.
If the host has no idea, then it doesn't matter if you switch and it is a 50/50 shot.
If the host does know, then yes you are correct that it is better to switch. But problem as stated in the OP did not specify this.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:48 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:What you are missing is that you will only pick the car if you stay 33% of the time.
Yes, I grew up watching Let's Make A Deal.
And my response to what I quoted still stands.
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
You will pick the car if you switch 67% of the time.
Just because you end up with two choices doesn't mean it's 50/50.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:48 pm to foshizzle
quote:
But problem as stated in the OP did not specify this
Exactly. The OP said you pick #1, they open #3 with a goat.
Probablity scenarios that include you choosing door #3 are irrelevant in the Op scenario...unless you REALLY like that goat.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:51 pm to dbeck
quote:
You have a 50/50 chance of being retarded.
The Monte Hall question is always a great way to weed the idiots out on a room
Everyone will holds on to the no switch scenario outs themselves
They basically end up having to put their fingers on their ears yelling nanananana
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:51 pm to PrimeTime Money
No, you won't - because I laid out every option in the OP scenario.
Tell me where my scenario is wrong then.
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
That is the problem stated in the OP.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
Tell me where my scenario is wrong then.
I choose door # 1. #3 is opened and reveals a goat.
That is the problem stated in the OP.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
50/50
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:52 pm to foshizzle
quote:
the OP did not specify that the host knows which door has the car and will only open a door showing a goat.
Yeah I remember all those episodes of Let's Make A Deal when the contestant picked a door and Monty opened a second door revealing the car and then asked if the contestant wanted to change their pick.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:52 pm to foshizzle
True, the problem could be stated more precisely. However, it would be a strange game for the host to be an equal player, so most people assume he's revealing a goat on purpose. I mean, if the host is picking at random, he might as well just skip the rigmarole and immediately show the player what's behind his door.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 12:53 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
No, you won't - because I laid out every option in the OP scenario
How well are your fingers fitting in your ears
LOL
Page 6 of 13
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News