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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:17 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14317 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:17 pm to
The Euro pressures are

48 hours - 975 mb

60 hours 962 mb (about 50 miles offshore)

72 hours 973 mb (Over land)

You can estimate that maybe it reached the high 950s pressure at landfall which is close to the GFS pressure of 958 millibars.

So both GFS and Euro show strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 at landfall.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177386 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:18 pm to
Looks like Laura is heading towards the same tiny little corner of Louisiana Rita hit so we get to claim them as Louisiana landfalls.

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147184 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

I don't think I've ever seen a special advisory product to DOWNGRADE a storm... crazy.

it didn't really downgrade the storm per se... it's still a tropical storm

but the special advisory was to knock off the tropical storm warning for NOLA
Posted by burdman
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2007
22741 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:18 pm to
Where are site are you following the Euro run from?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:18 pm to
Euro 968 at landfall:

Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:20 pm to
Johnson Bayou Fricked. I told yall
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50833 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Johnson Bayou Fricked. I told yall

Damn, we shoulda listened. What else can you tell us?

Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5422 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:22 pm to
Seems it is moving due North at landfall. So any slower motion that turn could happen just a little sooner and hit further East, possibly? I’m just glad we seem to finally have a consensus. At least, until the next set of runs. Lol
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177386 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:22 pm to
Maybe this will put some fish back in Big Lake since it sucks arse now
Posted by DLauw
SWLA
Member since Sep 2011
6194 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

12z GFS Ensembles getting dialed in for the most part:
well, frick. Looks like a fairly direct hit for us Lake Charles/Sulphur people. Thanks 2020.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14317 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

Euro 968 at landfall:


So it weakened a little as it got close to landfall. If that verifies that would be good news for SW LA.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15773 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:22 pm to
we have a substantial tornado threat in Baton Rouge with the current Laura projection right?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:22 pm to
Euro wind gusts right before landfall:

Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:23 pm to
Not really. The models all seem to be agreeing in a general area. Beaumont to Vermillion probably should be looking at the bullseye at this point.
Posted by The Melt
Metairie
Member since Apr 2018
984 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:23 pm to
What are the forces moving Laura toward the state line? Would a slow down by Marco, leaving it lingering over east Texas, possibility push Laura more East or is the high too strong?
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:23 pm to
East- west.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:23 pm to
Holly beach is also fricked.
Posted by LPLGTiger
Member since May 2013
2737 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:23 pm to
Is there any chart or site that shows how wide the storm will be when it comes to wind? With it strengthening at landfall wouldn't it be larger/wider in surface area?
Posted by burdman
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2007
22741 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

Euro wind gusts right before landfall:


I know this is always the case but seeing that kind of graphic really highlights how big of a difference 50 miles either way makes.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

So it weakened a little as it got close to landfall. If that verifies that would be good news for SW LA.


Got down to like 959 @ 8pm Wednesday and then up to 968 at 10pm landfall. Seems a little unlikely to increase that much so quickly, which is probably why the winds aren’t expected to decrease as substantially in those 2 hours.
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