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re: LA Mid-Continent O&G Association responds to Gov. Landry’s call to restrict diesel exports
Posted on 9/21/26 at 5:10 pm to UptownJoeBrown
Posted on 9/21/26 at 5:10 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Ok so your telling me that if there is an increase in domestic supply of diesel and domestic demand is the same, that prices would rise?
No, they wouldnt
Sounds like O&G doesnt want to be exposed for protecting record profits. Banning exports will cause a reduction in refining capacity. Which would immediately lead to drastic drop in prices. Because, well, once you max out capacity, you have to sell off as quickly as possible, ya know, by lowering prices
Lowering prices results in profit losses
Cant have that
We heard the same exact story with egg prices and beef. Egg prices went from 2.30 to .33 a dozen, once the US started increasing production. Beef has gone from 6.97 to 6.77 in just 2 months since imports began and processing increased
Posted on 9/21/26 at 5:26 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Ok so your telling me that if there is an increase in domestic supply of diesel and domestic demand is the same, that prices would rise?
The price would drop in a few months when domestic demand drops off. Lots of inventory to rebuild.
Although there wouldn't be a need for immediate filling of the inventory I guess.
Prices drop and the supply side would drop. Prices would go down until it became unprofitable and then the supply would be taken offline permanently. Rinse and repeat.
This post was edited on 9/21/26 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:23 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
The price would drop in a few months when domestic demand drops off.
Why would domestic demand drop off?
This post was edited on 9/21/26 at 8:24 pm
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:24 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Why would domestic demand fall?
Inventories fill up.
There is the global economic impact also, but initially people will lilely rebuild their inventories.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:26 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
quote: Why would domestic demand fall? Inventories fill up.
That doesn’t make any sense.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:26 pm to UptownJoeBrown
Oh, ok. I guess suppliers won't rebuild their reserves. 
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:31 pm to fightin tigers
We maybe talking about different things.
When you say domestic demand, what do you mean?
When you say domestic demand, what do you mean?
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:33 pm to UptownJoeBrown
I mean demand for refined products within the US.
Refiners will not make "extra" unless there is a reason to. They will cut crude runs as soon as there is no demand to fill.
Refiners will not make "extra" unless there is a reason to. They will cut crude runs as soon as there is no demand to fill.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:38 pm to fightin tigers
Ok. So why would demand for diesel fall? Are you saying “if” it does?
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:40 pm to ragincajun03
Jeff Landry makes arguments that make 85-IQ types feel smart
Posted on 9/21/26 at 8:42 pm to UptownJoeBrown
Inventories are low and being drafted (well, last week they built but likely because of demand destruction...)
As soon as the middlemen catch up the middlemen will stop buying. Reducing demand.
The global impact is that the US will just import/export less in a situation where we cut off diesel exports. So less need for road diesel.
As soon as the middlemen catch up the middlemen will stop buying. Reducing demand.
The global impact is that the US will just import/export less in a situation where we cut off diesel exports. So less need for road diesel.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 10:19 pm to ragincajun03
Here's the rub with all of this that I feel has been left out of the last couple threads about it
Yes if this was done it MIGHT TEMPORARILY lower fuel prices
But what isn't disputed is it would immediately significantly increase the cost of fuel in foreign counties
What isn't disputed is our country relies on a metric shitton of cheap imported goods to function. We can debate whether that's good or bad but it's nevertheless the truth and foreign fuel prices going up would certainly increase the price of imported goods that we pay for every day therefore still costing Americans
Many will claim that's good, that we shouldn't import cheap shite and should produce them domestically and while I'm sympathetic to that view it is not something that can be shifted to overnight and would cost Americans in the meantime if it's even possible for us to domestically produce what we need
In short, it's all incredibly fricking complicated and there are no simple fixes
Yes if this was done it MIGHT TEMPORARILY lower fuel prices
But what isn't disputed is it would immediately significantly increase the cost of fuel in foreign counties
What isn't disputed is our country relies on a metric shitton of cheap imported goods to function. We can debate whether that's good or bad but it's nevertheless the truth and foreign fuel prices going up would certainly increase the price of imported goods that we pay for every day therefore still costing Americans
Many will claim that's good, that we shouldn't import cheap shite and should produce them domestically and while I'm sympathetic to that view it is not something that can be shifted to overnight and would cost Americans in the meantime if it's even possible for us to domestically produce what we need
In short, it's all incredibly fricking complicated and there are no simple fixes
Posted on 9/21/26 at 10:33 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Ok so your telling me that if there is an increase in domestic supply of diesel and domestic demand is the same, that prices would rise?
It sounds like we only have X domestic storage capacity and once that is filled up, it becomes a bottleneck,
Imagine you have a container. Water flows into the container through a 1/2 inch opening and flows out of the container through a 1/4 inch opening. Eventually the container will fill the rate of water flowing in will reduce
It seems odd to me that we don’t have enough storage capacity but if we don’t then that’s a real issue.
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