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re: JBE Conference at 2:30
Posted on 7/30/20 at 5:31 pm to fightin tigers
Posted on 7/30/20 at 5:31 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
At least the lightbulb is going off that the data is more complicated than what you realized and can't be reflected with the simple spreadsheet this site uses.
The following link is to the Georgia Dept. of Health dashboard, scroll down to the graph. This is a good graphic representation of how the reporting of data different ways reflect two different realities.
First look at Cases sorted by date of report, then use the drop down menu to toggle to date of onset. Paints two different pictures. Please note that on date of onset graph the 14 day window will still be back-filled by positive cases reported over the next several weeks as same gets reported to the GaDH. 85 to 95% of positives reported over the next several days will populate same with some newly reported positive cases dating back further, but not appreciably so that it will effect the curve to the left of the 14 day window marker.
Then toggle over to Deaths and look at Date of Death and Date of Report. Wow! what completely divergent pictures that those two graphs reflect. When looking at Date of Report it appears that deaths are currently at an all-time high and the Date of Death graph indicates that the rate of deaths are lower than the peak of the earlier wave. Please note on the Date of Death the 14 day window is still populating over the next several weeks.
GA DH Dashboard
You can also toggle to individual counties under the Georgia drop-down menu.
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 5:33 pm
1
Posted on 7/30/20 at 5:47 pm to moneyg
quote:
That simply doesn't account for the difference between 9% and 14%.
What you are saying is that the % positive of those reported today (which were really from an earlier date) is significantly lower than the % positive from the test date.
Something smells.
Right. Trying to get a reading by the daily numbers is somewhat helpful, but ultimately futile.
If the numbers were completely constant that math works, but the tests numbers jump all around. 30k tests at 15% doesn't adjust down as much when only 11k tests at 9.8% are filed the next day.
Also, like someone mentioned there are 4 days of delay with La posting their numbers, so it is likely that 14% could fall.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 5:50 pm to Curtis Lowe
quote:
Then toggle over to Deaths and look at Date of Death and Date of Report.
Pretty cool feature. It does smooth those lines out and paint a better picture.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 5:56 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Pretty cool feature. It does smooth those lines out and paint a better picture.
Not only that, but date of onset and date of death paints a more realistic picture.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 7:13 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
It is not possible for the rates now to be higher without having corresponding drops in the past.
I haven’t read the entire 13 page thread so maybe some of this has been addressed, but there are a couple of things worth considering when you look at the data:
1. As we all know, the case totals in the spreadsheet we see on TD reflect the increase in cases after duplicate tests are thrown out. I have not seen any confirmation whether the daily cumulative tests update is also scrubbed for duplicates. My suspicion is that it’s not.
Since the % positive on the TD spreadsheet is calculated from daily increase in reported cases divided by the daily increase in reported tests, this would be problematic as you’re dividing the increase in distinct cases by the increase in total tests. It’s functionally the same as counting duplicate positive tests as negative, which would mean that the present AND past positivity rates are consistently lower than LDH’s numbers. Again, that’s assuming LDH isn’t scrubbing the total tests number for duplicates.
Now to be fair, LDH may be doing the opposite (reporting the raw % of positive tests without throwing out duplicates) which would just widen the gap between the two datasets.
2. The timing of when “tests” are reported vs. when “cases” are reported can have a big impact if there are big swings in the number of daily tests. Again, I’m not sure if LDH is reporting tests and results at the same time so maybe this is a non-issue.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 7:21 am to DiamondDog
Its a tough one for those of us who come from the other places or have left and come back. They elect based off race, gender, family name, and who tells the best stories. They really do not know any better and are oblivious that they can do better. It blows my mind that no one wants to change the state constitution that only allows budget cuts to health and education. The two areas that would produce the most dividends!
Posted on 7/31/20 at 7:37 am to Klingler7
quote:
When does this crap ever end ? Jesus Christ ! Are we living in fricking Iraq ? Geez. Wtf ?
We are now.... thank all the white liberals that voted for this piece of fricking shite not just once, but twice. Get what you voted for.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:09 am to YouAre8Up
quote:
We are now.... thank all the white liberals that voted for this piece of fricking shite not just once, but twice. Get what you voted for.
Yep, the Bible thumping crowd who voted for him over someone who (got caught) fricks whores the first time.
Also our fault for running such bad candidates, see also BR mayor problem and presidential problem before Trump
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