re: It’s about to get really cold past my liking cold weather threshold

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It takes a special person to want to live in Fairbanks for an extended period of time.

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Little wind, and the hills above town are much warmer. The inversions there can be dramatic

North slope would be worse. Not quite as deep a temperature but strong winds and ungodly wind chills.

Some of the toughest bastards I've ever met lived near Fairbanks though

Don’t fricking remind me.

Having to fly into Chicago on Tuesday.

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-6 Friday
-2 Saturday
6 Sunday
4 Monday
-10 Tuesday
-17 Wednesday
-12 Thursday
-4 Friday

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Centigrade or Fahrenheit?

New Orleans looks clear to me

So all good

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Should we at least talk about the chance of southern snow early next week?

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Maybe in northern Alabama and GA. Not buying what I'm seeing in Louisiana.

The GFS showing you snow in the first image, well the sounding is telling a very different story. 40 on the ground. Dried out column. The image is saying for the six hour period, there will be some precip and it's taking the temperature profile of the atmosphere at the end of that period into consideration. It's not actually showing me snow.



Way way too dry, even if cold enough at the surface. The same holds true for a lot of Mississippi. It's not until central Alabama that you get a believable snow profile.

The new GFS (fv3) has been pulling systems like that for a couple of weeks now in that time frame but they haven't been close to delivering. Furthermore, the moisture it's showing is being pulled from the Pac NW through the SW and into the SE and not a whole lot of energy down south to support much of anything, imho.

The Euro run is showing me a cold front. Overall, the Euro isn't much more hopeful though it still shows snow for the south shore every couple of runs.

The bigger picture is that the happenings in the Pacific and North Atlantic aren't lining up for any cold to get wedged down south for any length of time, so you're left chasing backside of fronts for a little snow.

The dips in the polar jet are bringing brutal cold down to the midwest and Ohio valley but it's just moving out east and away. So they'll get a couple of miserable cold snaps but the arctic air won't ever really work it's way down to the south.