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re: If demand for home is so high, why aren't more people building?
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:32 pm to Thundercles
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:32 pm to Thundercles
There actually are a high number of home constructions in progress when you look at numbers from the fed.
LINK
The question about an actual shortage is pretty debatable. The NAR and the realty media industry will scoff but the rates of home ownership are very much in the normal range for the last four decades (roughly 65-66%).
It is arguably already above the more stable rates of ownership that you see with stricter lending standards and closer to the bubble rates of elevated ownership when people over extend themselves on loans with the hope of value appreciation to stabilize their investment.
LINK
Affordability is a different question. The Case-Shiller Index (corresponding to affordability) is essentially the worst it has been.
LINK
Foreclosures and investment properties coming onto the market could also change housing supply rapidly. Forbearance will end eventually. Investors will sell properties that become dead weight. Older people who own some of the 15-20 million vacant properties or rental, AirB&B etc can also decide to sell for the money.
TLDR. Don't take any narrative at face value. Realtors are obligated to think this way.
LINK
The question about an actual shortage is pretty debatable. The NAR and the realty media industry will scoff but the rates of home ownership are very much in the normal range for the last four decades (roughly 65-66%).
It is arguably already above the more stable rates of ownership that you see with stricter lending standards and closer to the bubble rates of elevated ownership when people over extend themselves on loans with the hope of value appreciation to stabilize their investment.
LINK
Affordability is a different question. The Case-Shiller Index (corresponding to affordability) is essentially the worst it has been.
LINK
Foreclosures and investment properties coming onto the market could also change housing supply rapidly. Forbearance will end eventually. Investors will sell properties that become dead weight. Older people who own some of the 15-20 million vacant properties or rental, AirB&B etc can also decide to sell for the money.
TLDR. Don't take any narrative at face value. Realtors are obligated to think this way.
0
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:49 pm to Thundercles
quote:
it sounds like people are just not accepting of what it costs to build or own a house presently?
Correct...it's double whammy
The cost of building a ..
600k house 5yrs ago is north of 700k and then the cost of financing that 700k house has gone from 3% to almost 7% ..so assuming 100% LTV for ease...600k@ 3% is 2529. 700k@7% is 4657. So...2100 more a month is hard to adjust to in a few yrs time
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:52 pm to Thundercles
Anyone buying a new house right now that isn't a custom build is insane. Way too many houses going up way too quickly with mediocre products.
I'm going to use this as yet another post to complain about how the people buying houses right now are getting absolutely fricked, and it's hard not to fall into a nihilistic hole. I know I'm buying a house that could easily be overpriced in two years, or due to even more government interference, could basically not be available.
Everyone keeps vomiting the same HGTV bullshite that it's supposed to be fun. I'm taking time off work to go see houses that people will then bid 40k over asking. It gnaws on you, like what's the point? It's hard to see progress when people are just not sane.
I'm going to use this as yet another post to complain about how the people buying houses right now are getting absolutely fricked, and it's hard not to fall into a nihilistic hole. I know I'm buying a house that could easily be overpriced in two years, or due to even more government interference, could basically not be available.
Everyone keeps vomiting the same HGTV bullshite that it's supposed to be fun. I'm taking time off work to go see houses that people will then bid 40k over asking. It gnaws on you, like what's the point? It's hard to see progress when people are just not sane.
This post was edited on 4/24/23 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:54 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
You need to build up rather than build out
quote:
A monumental Swedish study of over four million Swedes examined whether a high level of urbanisation (which correlates with density) is associated with an increased risk of developing psychosis and depression. Adjustments were made to cater for individual demographic and socio-economic characteristics. It was found that the rates for psychosis (such as the major brain disorder schizophrenia) were 70% greater for the denser areas.
LINK
Nah, I prefer sanity to luxury.
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