re: If demand for home is so high, why aren't more people building?

I was ignorant to how some people “build” a house. They get with a builder that’s building houses in a neighborhood and say “I’ll take that one” and they change up a few things about it to personalize it. That’s very different than how I did it. I bought my lot, picked a house plan and customized, got my permits, then hired every person along the way while personally buying all materials. I had 100% unilateral control over my entire build. I’m not sure that’s the case with the first method

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I was ignorant to how some people “build” a house. They get with a builder that’s building houses in a neighborhood and say “I’ll take that one” and they change up a few things about it to personalize it. That’s very different than how I did it. I bought my lot, picked a house plan and customized, got my permits, then hired every person along the way while personally buying all materials. I had 100% unilateral control over my entire build. I’m not sure that’s the case with the first method

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If you can’t get to the construction site easily, it’s very difficult to do what you did.

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My buddy has never built a thing in his life and he is doing his cabin solo.

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well hell it's easy if you start with an old school bus!!

Multifamily for the win. It’s booming right now. Until cap rate goes to shite or lending shuts down.

A 12-16 month gradual recovery is what single family needs. Home prices slowly drop and non lumber building materials drop back down some. Rates crawl back into low 5s.

Fundamental is keeping people that can’t afford to buy from doing so but Feds about to screw that up.

What we don’t need is anything sudden.

The reason housing prices are so high is because trump put all the home builders in cages

Demand for new and existing homes is on the decline, temporarily, thus there is little financial incentive to start new homes. New permits are down nationwide for the month of March 2022 to March 23 by 25%. That sort of decline is a historic harbinger of a serious recession, by the way...construction starts are a leading indicator of economic slow downs...the first to drop off and the last to take off in recovery.

7/16 OSB is down almost 400% nationwide...from a high or around $60 a sheet in 2021 to around $11 a sheet today. Dimensional lumber prices have hit rock bottom. Roofing is still expensive because of oil prices but most building product prices have crashed in the last year or so.

The 2008 (?) housing bubble bust severly impacted the inventory of ready to move in homes while folks were still graduating school and starting families. The number of pre-qualified buyers just a few years ago in many areas was 8-10 times higher than the number of units available. It was unheard of except for periods in the 1950s according to most industry "experts". That is slowing WAAAAAAYYYYYY down today....still a lot of buyers compared to sellers but it is leveling off quickly and is exactly the opposite in some areas where prices are being reduced and sellers are more motivated than buyers.

Regardless of what shape the economy is in there is always going to be an increase in the demand for housing unless there is a decline in population. Affordable housing availability seldom if ever is in line with demand. IT certainly isn't today. But demand for "unaffordable housing" is not what it was just a year ago and it ain't going to get any better anytime soon.

Building requires time and most people only buy houses when they are moving and don’t have a year to wait for it to be done.

Besides the obvious rate increases, the build market has gotten to where there are only two options:

1. True custom build with high quality stuff you choose personally. In our market(Nashville) these builders have massive waiting lists and won’t even talk to you unless you’re spending 1.5m+

2. Track built spit and popsicle stick homes that cost 500k and up and are outdated/ugly/exactly the same as 200 other homes in the neighborhood. These you’re lucky to make it 5 years without something major falling apart, especially if you aren’t on site inspecting daily and know what you’re looking for problem wise. And these places offer you a choice of “basic” finishings that are not even Home Depot quality or massive markups on slightly nicer outdated junk.

You need to build up rather than build out. Urban infill is the answer, but lots of people don't want that, even in progressive areas.

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Building from ground up in today's market especially on private land sounds sexy until the real prices of things and coding/permits pop your cherry. Private sewage, pipes, gas/electrical lines, covered ditch discharge/culverts etc all add up like well over $50k even before you put stakes in for the concrete.

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The alternative for most folks is to buy in a HOA development where there is an unelected mayor with a police force backed by the power of the state which can foreclose on your home if the shrubs ain't trimmed when they think they should be...