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Started By
Message
re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:29 pm to Oates Mustache
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:29 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
So far it's pretty far west into the gulf. I hope it starts the turn. If this does verify, we'd be shitting bricks waiting on this turn.
yuuuuuuuup
ETA: I mean if this went dead north from this location and verified...wow...not saying that it's likely...or even 50% chance...but still
13 mb lower than the previous run too
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:33 pm
1
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:35 pm to gaetti15
This run is absolutely infuriating
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:37 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:
This run is absolutely infuriating
I mean sitting 210 hours out, further SW than the 18Z run that is pretty scary if it verified.
Takes 48 hours to get from tip of Yucatan to middle of the gulf
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:38 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:It would cause a panic in at least 4 states.
This run is absolutely infuriating
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:38 pm to gaetti15
Don't like this run at all.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:40 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:40 pm to Abstract Queso Dip
Has anyone contacted a birder or ornithologist. Watching connected on Netflix right now and the Veery are apparently good at predicting hurricane seasons.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:40 pm to OldSouth
quote:
would cause a panic in at least 4 states
5
Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:42 pm to Oates Mustache
This run is LA bound. Ridging to the east prevents ejection unfortunately.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:42 pm to Abstract Queso Dip
there's a front coming down from middle USA that might just take this east of LA/MS
ETA: Not getting there in enough time
ETA: Not getting there in enough time
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:44 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:43 pm to VCeagle2013
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:43 pm to Oates Mustache
I can’t even begin to remember how many times I’ve seen these models start these storms out in Florida and in 2 days later they are category 4s right dead south of Louisiana. It’s insane.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:43 pm to gaetti15
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:44 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:44 pm to VCeagle2013
954mb due south of Vermillion Bay/Cocodrie (weakening)
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:46 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
Yeah, I'm not believing this run sorry. That's fantasy land run there.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:46 pm to deuce985
quote:
Yeah, I'm not believing this run sorry
Why not?
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:46 pm to deuce985
im absolutely shocked??
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:46 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
quote:Personally, I ignore everything in these models after hour 120. The GFS seems pretty accurate 120 hrs out, but after that its a crap shoot.
I can’t even begin to remember how many times I’ve seen these models start these storms out in Florida and in 2 days later they are category 4s right dead south of Louisiana. It’s insane.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:47 pm to TheRouxGuru
Because it's 10 days out and GFS seems to be too aggressive
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:48 pm to TheRouxGuru
that run is rough for BR
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