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Started By
Message
re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:37 am to Oates Mustache
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:37 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Guys, just a friendly reminder, watch the ensembles and their runs this far out. You're going to lose all your hair if you watch each operational run and latch onto it. Way too much time left in this story to play out.
There’s always a fine line between losing your mind and dismissing a storm and not being prepared.
2
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:37 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
You'll lose your back, ear, and ballsack hair too!
That seems like a net gain for me.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:38 am to rds dc
About four or five days from now, won’t this storm be about where “Wilma” was in 2006 when it shot northeast across southern Florida from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean?
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:39 am to beachdude
Can someone tell us clueless weather idiots where to get all of these forecasts/models? Is tropical tidbits the best source?
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:40 am to m57
I guess I'm gonna go ahead and start thawing some of this titty milk. frick.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:41 am to Roll Tide Ravens
That's based on it being weaker further to the south. Honestly, none of the models can predict that right now until the storm forms into something. It could form further north or south which will obviously impact the track.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:43 am to deuce985
GFS says it basically sits still in the gulf for 10+ hours. Jeez.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:46 am to alabamabuckeye
It isn't doing anything crazy with the intensity though.
If it holds up with its current track, FL landfall still looks likely.
If it holds up with its current track, FL landfall still looks likely.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:48 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:48 am to BallsEleven
quote:
It isn't doing anything crazy with the intensity though.
Some idiot on Facebook posted model of Cat 4 into FloriBama. It’s too early to know anything.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:49 am to BallsEleven
I'll probably get prepared this weekend just in case. I prepared for Ida and still ran out of gas. Stock the pantry up, get some beer, at least 2 weeks of gas.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:50 am to BallsEleven
I think the farther west in the gulf it is the more dry air it will ingest, limiting the high end potential
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:52 am to deuce985
GFS showing a Florabama landfall as a Cat 3
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:54 am to UpToPar
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:55 am to UpToPar
Is this run slower to landfall than the last one?
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:56 am to The Pirate King
Don't look at the 12z Canadian...
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:56 am to UpToPar
This run has a very late, drastic NE turn. The entire LA/Ms coast will be puckering if that track did hold up.
Also - that storm is crawlingggg in the gulf. It enters the Gulf on Wednesday evening and doesnt make landfall to sometime on Sunday/Monday
Also - that storm is crawlingggg in the gulf. It enters the Gulf on Wednesday evening and doesnt make landfall to sometime on Sunday/Monday
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:56 am to deuce985
Sort of. It takes longer to get organized thus a delay in the turn to the north.
Sorry, misunderstood the question. Yes, it is slower to make its way to land.
Sorry, misunderstood the question. Yes, it is slower to make its way to land.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:59 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:56 am to BallsEleven
Decent western shift for landfall this run
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:57 am to Jim Rockford
That model is always drunk. Probably has it barreling straight through a ridge as world's first.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:58 am to deuce985
quote:
Is this run slower to landfall than the last one?
Yes, almost 48 hours slower.
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