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re: Hurricane Maria - Visiting the Outer Banks before Moving OTS

Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:22 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20623 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:22 am to
quote:

She seems to be following the NHC track fairly well. I don't see a more southerly or northerly component which would cause a near miss.


Remember she just needs to miss by 20 miles to avoid this being a real disaster.


I'm not seeing any "silver lining" as the 00z/06z Super Ensemble cluster that best matches the recent movement is a direct hit on the Puerto Rico. Like you said, it only need to drift north some to miss the island.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90117 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:23 am to
St. Croix could be in really bad shape. Their airport and sea port are both on the central/western end of the island as well as the windward side with respect to Maria.
Posted by LSUGrad9295
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
35487 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:23 am to
quote:

It happens all the time in these disasters, particularly in sub-first world locations. Not sure why people love to share the fake photos, but they're rampant.


That bullshite pisses me off. Why do so many idiots think it is cool to do this? The need for attention??
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20623 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:25 am to
Last 30ish mins of 1-min scans

Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42098 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:26 am to
quote:


That bullshite pisses me off. Why do so many idiots think it is cool to do this? The need for attention??


Were in a world where the first to market means more than anything for social media.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42098 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:27 am to
Such a compact storm! Eye looks a smidgen wider though.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20623 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:31 am to
quote:

Photos of Dominica from this morning


Confirms the worst fears, that areas that missed the relatively small core would be hammered by flash flooding.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20623 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:34 am to
Here is a good representation of the hell that those islands have been through so far this season:

Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
108520 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Helicopters sounds like a great idea but this is an independent nation with no foreign government oversight (Dutch, French, British, US, etc) so there won't be a military ship to help these folks out like the other ravaged islands. On top of that the roads and highways have been washed out or land slides have taken them out across the entire island so logistically it will be damn near impossible for get this place into order anytime soon.


Independence comes at a price.

That said, Trump could really win some hearts and minds in the Caribbean (and scuttle all the nonsense "white supremacist" bullshite) by sending aid/assistance there.
Posted by TthomasJR
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2006
17312 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:37 am to
Jeez
Posted by marinebioman
Ocean Springs, MS
Member since Feb 2005
3396 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:38 am to
She's gaining some overall size pretty quickly!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90117 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:40 am to
quote:

That said, Trump could really win some hearts and minds in the Caribbean (and scuttle all the nonsense "white supremacist" bullshite) by sending aid/assistance there.


We're about to be knee deep in aid to Puerto Rico and the USVI, plus Harvey/Irma will likely be in excess of $150B in damages.

I agree with the sentiment though, I'm just not sure about the resources at this time.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20623 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:42 am to
quote:

She's gaining some overall size pretty quickly!


Some indications that there is about to be an ERC. Hopefully, it is one of the slow ones that storms never fully recover from. A fast ERC would be bad news.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36409 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:44 am to
Convection increasing to the SE side there. Eye still looks stable and shite maybe even getting a little warmer. Could be pushing sub 920 next recon this afternoon.

Haven't seen much on radar (though SJ is really far away) or on a microwave pass to really suggest an EWRC but I know last recon might have seen a bit of a double Maxima forming up.
This post was edited on 9/19/17 at 11:45 am
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42098 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:44 am to
quote:

Some indications that there is about to be an ERC. Hopefully, it is one of the slow ones that storms never fully recover from. A fast ERC would be bad news.



fast ERC equals bigger pink area on that horrible map of yours
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20623 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:46 am to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36409 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:48 am to
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42098 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:49 am to
Okay Duke, time to teach 50 something new. WTF is a hot tower
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90117 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:50 am to
HTML5 1-min scans of Maria for the last 40 minutes

Watching her churn is nuts. Latest still image:

Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
171912 posts
Posted on 9/19/17 at 11:51 am to
I'm going to guess it's where the warm air is getting sucked in the most?

No clue but it sounds plausible


Edit: I think Google told me I was stupid
This post was edited on 9/19/17 at 11:56 am
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