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Message
re: Hurricane Maria - Visiting the Outer Banks before Moving OTS
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:03 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:03 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.
Cat 4 bump was good, but even Beven knows 115 kts is a very conservative estimate.
quote:
Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi
Maybe very very conservative. These are the storms that typically get the huge wind numbers and the staggering pressure drops. 150-160 mph and under 940 mb aren't unreasonable with the rapid improvement this afternoon on satellite.
Won't know until we get a plane up in there.
This post was edited on 9/18/17 at 4:04 pm
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:04 pm to Duke
wheels should be up in the next 30 minutes who the hell knows what they will find.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:12 pm to Duke
plane just left to go into Maria.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:17 pm to lsuman25
Remembering that shocking Wilma recon right now. We knew she was strong and the recon gets in there and starts spitting out 880s. Jaw dropper. 100 mb drop in 30 hours.
*IM NOT saying anyone should expect those sorts of numbers, dropping that low in like seven hours is unthinkable.*
*IM NOT saying anyone should expect those sorts of numbers, dropping that low in like seven hours is unthinkable.*
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:19 pm to Duke
Yea I don't think it will be that low but this year has been full of surprises. Think they will find pressures in the 930's though.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:22 pm to slackster
Thanks Slackster. I think it's pretty clear according to those models that Maria likely not be a threat to Florida and possibly the rest of the CONUS unless something drastic changes. The NHC is usually pretty good with track in the 3-5 day frame, I just dont know if this is one of those times where too many variables will have unknown effects thereby leaving open the possibility of larger than normal path corrections within the 5 day track. It appears Florida will never vibe in the cone if the trends continue.
This post was edited on 9/18/17 at 4:29 pm
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:31 pm to lsuman25
Incredible how rapidly we went from a dense overcast shield last night to such an impressive looking hurricane today.
Dvorak numbers coming back in the 7+ range, suggesting winds in the 160 mph range and a pressure in the 920s. Dominica is in for a frightening evening sadly.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:44 pm to Duke
Meanwhile on Barbuda
LINK
quote:
Ambassador Ronald Sanders, the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda's ambassador to the United States, delivered a chilling report on the status of his country in the wake of Hurricane Irma.
"The damage is complete," Sanders told PRI's The Takeaway. "For the first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda — a civilization that has existed on that island for over 300 years has now been extinguished."
LINK
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:53 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Meanwhile on Barbuda
Damn.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:53 pm to Jim Rockford
In other news looks like Lee is about to surrender again
Posted on 9/18/17 at 5:24 pm to slackster
On her current path, I'm really worried we'll be hearing similar stories off Dominica. Lining up for a direct hit as a Category 5.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 5:48 pm to Duke
Island taking a direct hit from a pinhole cat 5. You can kiss the baby.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:20 pm to 50_Tiger
That's a strong Dvorak presentation. I can't do the whole T# thing, but I'm seeing people saying 7-7.3 which is strongly in Cat 5 territory.
For those curious, the scale tops out at 8. Here is Hiayan when he scored an 8.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:36 pm to Duke
925.6 mb from plane. Will be adjusted some. No drop info yet.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:37 pm to Duke
Welp, SFMR winds at the surface of 175 mph so far...
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:38 pm to slackster
That one is flagged but we have a clean 140 kt (160 mph) at surface.
And that 925 wasn't a perfect fix. Still picking up wind. 924-923 mb at center likely.
And that 925 wasn't a perfect fix. Still picking up wind. 924-923 mb at center likely.
This post was edited on 9/18/17 at 6:41 pm
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