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re: Hurricane Maria - Visiting the Outer Banks before Moving OTS

Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:03 pm to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

Thus, the initial intensity 
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly 
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt. 




Cat 4 bump was good, but even Beven knows 115 kts is a very conservative estimate.

quote:

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from 
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from 
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi


Maybe very very conservative. These are the storms that typically get the huge wind numbers and the staggering pressure drops. 150-160 mph and under 940 mb aren't unreasonable with the rapid improvement this afternoon on satellite.

Won't know until we get a plane up in there.
This post was edited on 9/18/17 at 4:04 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:04 pm to
wheels should be up in the next 30 minutes who the hell knows what they will find.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:12 pm to
plane just left to go into Maria.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:17 pm to
Remembering that shocking Wilma recon right now. We knew she was strong and the recon gets in there and starts spitting out 880s. Jaw dropper. 100 mb drop in 30 hours.

*IM NOT saying anyone should expect those sorts of numbers, dropping that low in like seven hours is unthinkable.*

Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:19 pm to
Yea I don't think it will be that low but this year has been full of surprises. Think they will find pressures in the 930's though.
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16697 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:22 pm to
Thanks Slackster. I think it's pretty clear according to those models that Maria likely not be a threat to Florida and possibly the rest of the CONUS unless something drastic changes. The NHC is usually pretty good with track in the 3-5 day frame, I just dont know if this is one of those times where too many variables will have unknown effects thereby leaving open the possibility of larger than normal path corrections within the 5 day track. It appears Florida will never vibe in the cone if the trends continue.
This post was edited on 9/18/17 at 4:29 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:31 pm to


Incredible how rapidly we went from a dense overcast shield last night to such an impressive looking hurricane today.

Dvorak numbers coming back in the 7+ range, suggesting winds in the 160 mph range and a pressure in the 920s. Dominica is in for a frightening evening sadly.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
104119 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:44 pm to
Meanwhile on Barbuda

quote:

Ambassador Ronald Sanders, the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda's ambassador to the United States, delivered a chilling report on the status of his country in the wake of Hurricane Irma.

"The damage is complete," Sanders told PRI's The Takeaway. "For the first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda — a civilization that has existed on that island for over 300 years has now been extinguished."


LINK
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91271 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:53 pm to
quote:

Meanwhile on Barbuda


Damn.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
99921 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 4:53 pm to
In other news looks like Lee is about to surrender again
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 5:24 pm to


On her current path, I'm really worried we'll be hearing similar stories off Dominica. Lining up for a direct hit as a Category 5.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42744 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 5:48 pm to
Island taking a direct hit from a pinhole cat 5. You can kiss the baby.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:20 pm to


That's a strong Dvorak presentation. I can't do the whole T# thing, but I'm seeing people saying 7-7.3 which is strongly in Cat 5 territory.

For those curious, the scale tops out at 8. Here is Hiayan when he scored an 8.

Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:27 pm to

Well here we go
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:33 pm to
LINK

Brightside, there's an outer eyewall starting to form up on radar. Downside is recon missed the peak if so and windfield expands (if it takes) once done.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:36 pm to
925.6 mb from plane. Will be adjusted some. No drop info yet.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:36 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91271 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:37 pm to
Welp, SFMR winds at the surface of 175 mph so far...
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
128721 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:37 pm to
shite 925
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:38 pm to
That one is flagged but we have a clean 140 kt (160 mph) at surface.

And that 925 wasn't a perfect fix. Still picking up wind. 924-923 mb at center likely.
This post was edited on 9/18/17 at 6:41 pm
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